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Related papers: Sampling--Dependent Transition Paths of Iceland-Sc…

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We use Transition Path Theory (TPT) to frame, in a statistically more robust fashion than earlier analyses, equatorward routes of North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) in the subpolar North Atlantic. TPT is applied on all available RAFOS and…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2022-05-25 P. Miron , F. J. Beron-Vera , M. J. Olascoaga

Transition path theory (TPT) for diffusion processes is a framework for analysing the transitions of multiscale ergodic diffusion processes between disjoint metastable subsets of state space. Most methods for applying TPT involve the…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2021-03-31 Nada Cvetković , Tim Conrad , Han Cheng Lie

We explore hurricane and ocean reanalysis data to understand how rapid intensification (RI) of tropical cyclones is impacted by the upper ocean density structure, with an emphasis on barrier layer (BL) thickness and thermocline depth in the…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2026-03-18 F. J. Beron-Vera , G. Bonner , M. J. Olascoaga , S. Dong , H. Lopez

The Transition Path Theory (TPT) of complex systems has proven a robust means for statistically characterizing the ensemble of trajectories that connect any two preset flow regions, say $\mathcal A$ and $\mathcal B$, directly. More…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2022-09-14 M. J. Olascoaga , F. J. Beron-Vera

Transition Path Theory (TPT) provides a rigorous statistical characterization of the ensemble of trajectories connecting directly, i.e., without detours, two disconnected (sets of) states in a Markov chain, a stochastic process that…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2023-06-28 G. Bonner , F. J. Beron-Vera , M. J. Olascoaga

By analyzing a time-homogeneous Markov chain constructed using trajectories of undrogued drifting buoys from the NOAA's Global Drifter Program, we find that probability density can distribute in a manner that resembles very closely the…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2024-06-12 F. J. Beron-Vera , M. J. Olascoaga , N. Putman , J. Trinanes , G. J. Goni , R. Lumpkin

Atmospheric regime transitions are highly impactful as drivers of extreme weather events, but pose two formidable modeling challenges: predicting the next event (weather forecasting), and characterizing the statistics of events of a given…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2022-10-20 Justin Finkel , Robert J. Webber , Edwin P. Gerber , Dorian S. Abbot , Jonathan Weare

Tipping points (TP) in climate sub-systems are usually thought to occur at a well-defined, critical forcing parameter threshold, via destabilization of the system state by a single, dominant positive feedback. However, coupling to other…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2024-12-24 Johannes Lohmann , Henk A. Dijkstra , Markus Jochum , Valerio Lucarini , Peter D. Ditlevsen

A set of analytical and computational tools based on transition path theory (TPT) is proposed to analyze flows in complex networks. Specifically, TPT is used to study the statistical properties of the reactive trajectories by which…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2015-06-18 Maria Cameron , Eric Vanden-Eijnden

Many rare weather events, including hurricanes, droughts, and floods, dramatically impact human life. To accurately forecast these events and characterize their climatology requires specialized mathematical techniques to fully leverage the…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2020-07-15 Justin Finkel , Dorian Abbot , Jonathan Weare

In this work, we consider rather general and broad class of Markov chains, Ito chains, that look like Euler-Maryama discretization of some Stochastic Differential Equation. The chain we study is a unified framework for theoretical analysis.…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2024-04-02 Aleksei Ustimenko , Aleksandr Beznosikov

Many chemical reactions can be formulated in terms of particle diffusion in a complex energy landscape. Transition path theory (TPT) is a theoretical framework for describing the direct (reaction) pathways from reactant to product states…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2023-10-03 Paul C Bressloff

We study the optimal transport problem for pairs of stationary finite-state Markov chains, with an emphasis on the computation of optimal transition couplings. Transition couplings are a constrained family of transport plans that capture…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2021-09-20 Kevin O'Connor , Kevin McGoff , Andrew B. Nobel

A formulation of the shallow water equations adapted to general complex terrains is proposed. Its derivation starts from the observation that the typical approach of depth integrating the Navier-Stokes equations along the direction of…

Fluid Dynamics · Physics 2018-10-17 Ilaria Fent , Mario Putti , Carlo Gregoretti , Stefano Lanzoni

We define the projected entropy S(T) at a given temperature T in the context of an Ising model transition matrix calculation as the entropy associated with the distribution of Markov chain realizations in energy-magnetization, E-H, space.…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2018-10-17 David Yevick

Given two distinct subsets $A,B$ in the state space of some dynamical system, Transition Path Theory (TPT) was successfully used to describe the statistical behavior of transitions from $A$ to $B$ in the ergodic limit of the stationary…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2020-11-03 Luzie Helfmann , Enric Ribera Borrell , Christof Schütte , Péter Koltai

Fluid approximations have seen great success in approximating the macro-scale behaviour of Markov systems with a large number of discrete states. However, these methods rely on the continuous-time Markov chain (CTMC) having a particular…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2019-10-29 Michalis Michaelides , Jane Hillston , Guido Sanguinetti

Isotachophoresis (ITP) is a versatile electrophoretic technique which can be used for sample preconcentration, separation, purification, mixing, and control and acceleration of chemical reactions. Although the basic technique is nearly a…

Chemical Physics · Physics 2022-03-30 Ashwin Ramachandran , Juan G. Santiago

One of the primary goals of coastal water quality monitoring is to characterize spatial variation. Generally, this monitoring takes place at a limited number of fixed sampling points. The alternative sampling methodology explored in this…

Applications · Statistics 2015-04-07 Joseph Stachelek , Christopher J. Madden

Markov branching systems form a fundamental class of stochastic models that are extensively applied in biology, physics, finance, and other domains. These systems are distinguished by their continuous-time evolution and inherent branching…

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