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Transformers have shown great power in time series forecasting due to their global-range modeling ability. However, their performance can degenerate terribly on non-stationary real-world data in which the joint distribution changes over…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-11-27 Yong Liu , Haixu Wu , Jianmin Wang , Mingsheng Long

The attention mechanism has demonstrated remarkable potential in sequence modeling, exemplified by its successful application in natural language processing with models such as Bidirectional Encoder Representations from Transformers (BERT)…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-26 Bowen Zhao , Huanlai Xing , Zhiwen Xiao , Jincheng Peng , Li Feng , Xinhan Wang , Rong Qu , Hui Li

Time series forecasting is crucial for various applications, such as weather, traffic, electricity, and energy predictions. Currently, common time series forecasting methods are based on Transformers. However, existing approaches primarily…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-30 Zixu Wang , Hongbin Dong , Xiaoping Zhang

Finding effective representations for time series data is a useful but challenging task. Several works utilize self-supervised or unsupervised learning methods to address this. However, there still remains the open question of how to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-19 Yuansan Liu , Sudanthi Wijewickrema , Christofer Bester , Stephen O'Leary , James Bailey

Multivariate time series forecasting is a pivotal task in several domains, including financial planning, medical diagnostics, and climate science. This paper presents the Neural Fourier Transform (NFT) algorithm, which combines…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-05-24 Noam Koren , Kira Radinsky

The recent boom of linear forecasting models questions the ongoing passion for architectural modifications of Transformer-based forecasters. These forecasters leverage Transformers to model the global dependencies over temporal tokens of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-15 Yong Liu , Tengge Hu , Haoran Zhang , Haixu Wu , Shiyu Wang , Lintao Ma , Mingsheng Long

Anomalies in univariate time series often refer to abnormal values and deviations from the temporal patterns from majority of historical observations. In multivariate time series, anomalies also refer to abnormal changes in the inter-series…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-02-07 Katrina Chen , Mingbin Feng , Tony S. Wirjanto

The paper develops a Transformer architecture for estimating dynamic factors from multivariate time series data under flexible identification assumptions. Performance on small datasets is improved substantially by using a conventional…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-01-21 Oliver Snellman

The probability prediction of multivariate time series is a notoriously challenging but practical task. On the one hand, the challenge is how to effectively capture the cross-series correlations between interacting time series, to achieve…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-07-24 Shibo Feng , Chunyan Miao , Ke Xu , Jiaxiang Wu , Pengcheng Wu , Yang Zhang , Peilin Zhao

Multivariate Time Series (MTS) forecasting involves modeling temporal dependencies within historical records. Transformers have demonstrated remarkable performance in MTS forecasting due to their capability to capture long-term…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-07-17 Yifan Zhang , Rui Wu , Sergiu M. Dascalu , Frederick C. Harris

Multivariate time series forecasting has long received significant attention in real-world applications, such as energy consumption and traffic prediction. While recent methods demonstrate good forecasting abilities, they have three…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-11-24 Ming Jin , Yu Zheng , Yuan-Fang Li , Siheng Chen , Bin Yang , Shirui Pan

While existing multivariate time series forecasting models have advanced significantly in modeling periodicity, they largely neglect the periodic heterogeneity common in real-world data, where variables exhibit distinct and dynamically…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-03 Jiaming Ma , Qihe Huang , Haofeng Ma , Guanjun Wang , Sheng Huang , Zhengyang Zhou , Pengkun Wang , Binwu Wang , Yang Wang

Accurately predicting smartphone app usage is challenging due to the sparsity and irregularity of user behavior, especially under cold-start and low-activity conditions. Existing approaches mostly rely on static or attention-only…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-30 Longlong Li , Cunquan Qu , Guanghui Wang

Predicting multivariate time series is crucial, demanding precise modeling of intricate patterns, including inter-series dependencies and intra-series variations. Distinctive trend characteristics in each time series pose challenges, and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-07-08 Guoqi Yu , Jing Zou , Xiaowei Hu , Angelica I. Aviles-Rivero , Jing Qin , Shujun Wang

Forecasting multivariate time series data, such as prediction of electricity consumption, solar power production, and polyphonic piano pieces, has numerous valuable applications. However, complex and non-linear interdependencies between…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-09-20 Shun-Yao Shih , Fan-Keng Sun , Hung-yi Lee

The non-stationary nature of real-world Multivariate Time Series (MTS) data presents forecasting models with a formidable challenge of the time-variant distribution of time series, referred to as distribution shift. Existing studies on the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-07-19 Hui He , Qi Zhang , Kun Yi , Xiaojun Xue , Shoujin Wang , Liang Hu , Longbing Cao

Recently, multivariate time series forecasting tasks have garnered increasing attention due to their significant practical applications, leading to the emergence of various deep forecasting models. However, real-world time series exhibit…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-07-16 Jiaxi Hu , Qingsong Wen , Sijie Ruan , Li Liu , Yuxuan Liang

The growing interest in Temporal Graph Neural Networks (TGNNs) stems from their ability to model complex dynamics and deliver superior performance. However, TGNNs encounter fundamental challenges in capturing long-term dependencies and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-26 Hongjiang Chen , Pengfei Jiao , Ming Du , Xuan Guo , Zhidong Zhao , Di Jin , Xiao Liu

The links in many real networks are evolving with time. The task of dynamic link prediction is to use past connection histories to infer links of the network at a future time. How to effectively learn the temporal and structural pattern of…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2023-06-27 Chaokai Wu , Yansong Wang , Tao Jia

While generative modeling on time series facilitates more capable and flexible probabilistic forecasting, existing generative time series models do not address the multi-dimensional properties of time series data well. The prevalent…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-09 Haoran Zhang , Haixuan Liu , Yong Liu , Yunzhong Qiu , Yuxuan Wang , Jianmin Wang , Mingsheng Long