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We introduce an approach to counterfactual inference based on merging information from multiple datasets. We consider a causal reformulation of the statistical marginal problem: given a collection of marginal structural causal models (SCMs)…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2022-07-18 Luigi Gresele , Julius von Kügelgen , Jonas M. Kübler , Elke Kirschbaum , Bernhard Schölkopf , Dominik Janzing

Model explanations based on pure observational data cannot compute the effects of features reliably, due to their inability to estimate how each factor alteration could affect the rest. We argue that explanations should be based on the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-09-20 Álvaro Parafita , Jordi Vitrià

We tackle the problem of computing counterfactual explanations -- minimal changes to the features that flip an undesirable model prediction. We propose a solution to this question for linear Support Vector Machine (SVMs) models. Moreover,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-12-16 Sebastian Salazar , Samuel Denton , Ansaf Salleb-Aouissi

Counterfactual explanations are usually obtained by identifying the smallest change made to an input to change a prediction made by a fixed model (hereafter called sparse methods). Recent work, however, has revitalized an old insight: there…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-06-24 Martin Pawelczyk , Klaus Broelemann , Gjergji Kasneci

Counterfactual explanations indicate the smallest change in input that can translate to a different outcome for a machine learning model. Counterfactuals have generated immense interest in high-stakes applications such as finance,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-12 Erfaun Noorani , Pasan Dissanayake , Faisal Hamman , Sanghamitra Dutta

In recent years, two parallel research trends have emerged in machine learning, yet their intersections remain largely unexplored. On one hand, there has been a significant increase in literature focused on Individual Treatment Effect (ITE)…

Causal approaches to fairness have seen substantial recent interest, both from the machine learning community and from wider parties interested in ethical prediction algorithms. In no small part, this has been due to the fact that causal…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-08-17 Niki Kilbertus , Philip J. Ball , Matt J. Kusner , Adrian Weller , Ricardo Silva

The coefficient of determination, the $R^2$, is often used to measure the variance explained by an affine combination of multiple explanatory covariates. An attribution of this explanatory contribution to each of the individual covariates…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-08-11 Daniel Fryer , Inga Strumke , Hien Nguyen

We study the problem of generating counterfactual text for a classifier as a means for understanding and debugging classification. Given a textual input and a classification model, we aim to minimally alter the text to change the model's…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2021-10-25 Quintin Pope , Xiaoli Z. Fern

We propose probabilistic Shapley inference (PSI), a novel probabilistic framework to model and infer sufficient statistics of feature attributions in flexible predictive models, via latent random variables whose mean recovers Shapley…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-09 Mert Ketenci , Iñigo Urteaga , Victor Alfonso Rodriguez , Noémie Elhadad , Adler Perotte

Data valuation -- quantifying the contribution of individual data sources to certain predictive behaviors of a model -- is of great importance to enhancing the transparency of machine learning and designing incentive systems for data…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-07-28 Zhihong Liu , Hoang Anh Just , Xiangyu Chang , Xi Chen , Ruoxi Jia

Shapley values are widely recognized as a principled method for attributing importance to input features in machine learning. However, the exact computation of Shapley values scales exponentially with the number of features, severely…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-21 Majid Mohammadi , Krikamol Muandet , Ilaria Tiddi , Annette Ten Teije , Siu Lun Chau

It is becoming increasingly important to explain complex, black-box machine learning models. Although there is an expanding literature on this topic, Shapley values stand out as a sound method to explain predictions from any type of machine…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-07-03 Annabelle Redelmeier , Martin Jullum , Kjersti Aas

We propose a formal model for counterfactual estimation with unobserved confounding in "data-rich" settings, i.e., where there are a large number of units and a large number of measurements per unit. Our model provides a bridge between the…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-04-03 Alberto Abadie , Anish Agarwal , Devavrat Shah

The popularity of deep learning methods in the time series domain boosts interest in interpretability studies, including counterfactual (CF) methods. CF methods identify minimal changes in instances to alter the model predictions. Despite…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-11 Ziwen Kan , Shahbaz Rezaei , Xin Liu

Causal Structure Learning (CSL), also referred to as causal discovery, amounts to extracting causal relations among variables in data. CSL enables the estimation of causal effects from observational data alone, avoiding the need to perform…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-12 Fabrizio Russo , Francesca Toni

Many existing interpretation methods are based on Partial Dependence (PD) functions that, for a pre-trained machine learning model, capture how a subset of the features affects the predictions by averaging over the remaining features.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-05 Jinyang Liu , Tessa Steensgaard , Marvin N. Wright , Niklas Pfister , Munir Hiabu

In this expository article we highlight the relevance of explanations for artificial intelligence, in general, and for the newer developments in {\em explainable AI}, referring to origins and connections of and among different approaches.…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2023-03-24 Leopoldo Bertossi

The field of generating recommendations within the framework of causal inference has seen a recent surge, with recommendations being likened to treatments. This approach enhances insights into the influence of recommendations on user…

Information Retrieval · Computer Science 2023-08-21 Guanglin Zhou , Chengkai Huang , Xiaocong Chen , Xiwei Xu , Chen Wang , Liming Zhu , Lina Yao

Counterfactual reasoning -- the practice of asking ``what if'' by varying inputs and observing changes in model behavior -- has become central to interpretable and fair AI. This thesis develops frameworks that use counterfactuals to…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-08-29 Pushkar Shukla
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