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State-of-the-art AI models largely lack an understanding of the cause-effect relationship that governs human understanding of the real world. Consequently, these models do not generalize to unseen data, often produce unfair results, and are…

The ability to understand causality from data is one of the major milestones of human-level intelligence. Causal Discovery (CD) algorithms can identify the cause-effect relationships among the variables of a system from related…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-03-14 Uzma Hasan , Emam Hossain , Md Osman Gani

To act safely and ethically in the real world, agents must be able to reason about harm and avoid harmful actions. However, to date there is no statistical method for measuring harm and factoring it into algorithmic decisions. In this paper…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2022-11-03 Jonathan G. Richens , Rory Beard , Daniel H. Thompson

Classical machine learning techniques often struggle with overfitting and unreliable predictions when exposed to novel conditions. Introducing causality into the modelling process offers a promising way to mitigate these challenges by…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2025-05-28 David Zapata Gonzalez , Marcel Meyer , Oliver Mueller

Dynamic networks models describe temporal interactions between social actors, and as such have been used to describe financial fraudulent transactions, dispersion of destructive invasive species across the globe, and the spread of fake…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-03-06 Melania Lembo , Ester Riccardi , Veronica Vinciotti , Ernst C. Wit

Process discovery studies ways to use event data generated by business processes and recorded by IT systems to construct models that describe the processes. Existing discovery algorithms are predominantly concerned with constructing process…

Multiagent Systems · Computer Science 2023-07-24 Andrei Tour , Artem Polyvyanyy , Anna Kalenkova , Arik Senderovich

When building a world model, a common assumption is that the environment has a single, unchanging underlying causal rule, like applying Newton's laws to every situation. In reality, what appears as a drifting causal mechanism is often the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-28 Zhiyu Zhao , Haoxuan Li , Haifeng Zhang , Jun Wang , Francesco Faccio , Jürgen Schmidhuber , Mengyue Yang

Intelligent agents such as robots are increasingly deployed in real-world, safety-critical settings. It is vital that these agents are able to explain the reasoning behind their decisions to human counterparts, however, their behavior is…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-09-20 Xijia Zhang , Yue Guo , Simon Stepputtis , Katia Sycara , Joseph Campbell

Mathematical models are fundamental building blocks in the design of dynamical control systems. As control systems are becoming increasingly complex and networked, approaches for obtaining such models based on first principles reach their…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-07-19 Dominik Baumann , Friedrich Solowjow , Karl H. Johansson , Sebastian Trimpe

Reconstructing accurate causal models of dynamic systems from time-series of sensor data is a key problem in many real-world scenarios. In this paper, we present an overview based on our experience about practical challenges that the causal…

Robotics · Computer Science 2023-01-11 Luca Castri , Sariah Mghames , Nicola Bellotto

We describe basic ideas underlying research to build and understand artificially intelligent systems: from symbolic approaches via statistical learning to interventional models relying on concepts of causality. Some of the hard open…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2022-04-04 Bernhard Schölkopf , Julius von Kügelgen

As AI agents become more widely deployed, we are likely to see an increasing number of incidents: events involving AI agent use that directly or indirectly cause harm. For example, agents could be prompt-injected to exfiltrate private…

Computers and Society · Computer Science 2025-08-21 Carson Ezell , Xavier Roberts-Gaal , Alan Chan

Causal Bayesian networks are 'causal' models since they make predictions about interventional distributions. To connect such causal model predictions to real-world outcomes, we must determine which actions in the world correspond to which…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-02-04 Frederik Hytting Jørgensen , Luigi Gresele , Sebastian Weichwald

Identifying a causal model of an IT system is fundamental to many branches of systems engineering and operation. Such a model can be used to predict the effects of control actions, optimize operations, diagnose failures, detect intrusions,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-09 Kim Hammar , Rolf Stadler

Methods for learning optimal policies in autonomous agents often assume that the way the domain is conceptualised---its possible states and actions and their causal structure---is known in advance and does not change during learning. This…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2018-01-11 Craig Innes , Alex Lascarides , Stefano V Albrecht , Subramanian Ramamoorthy , Benjamin Rosman

Machine learning is the science of discovering statistical dependencies in data, and the use of those dependencies to perform predictions. During the last decade, machine learning has made spectacular progress, surpassing human performance…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-07-13 David Lopez-Paz

Causal discovery algorithms aim at untangling complex causal relationships from data. Here, we study causal discovery and inference methods based on staged tree models, which can represent complex and asymmetric causal relationships between…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-03-02 Manuele Leonelli , Gherardo Varando

A complex system is made up of many components with many interactions. So the design of systems such as simulation systems, cooperative systems or assistance systems includes a very accurate modelling of interactional and communicational…

Multiagent Systems · Computer Science 2012-01-19 Alain-Jérôme Fougères

Machine Learning explainability techniques have been proposed as a means of `explaining' or interrogating a model in order to understand why a particular decision or prediction has been made. Such an ability is especially important at a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-02-28 Matthew J. Vowels

Most traditional models of uncertainty have focused on the associational relationship among variables as captured by conditional dependence. In order to successfully manage intelligent systems for decision making, however, we must be able…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2015-05-19 David Heckerman , Ross D. Shachter