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We study convergence rates of the annealed importance sampling algorithm (Neal '01) combined with Langevin Monte Carlo when the target is a multimodal Gibbs measure. The main result shows that for a fixed error threshold, the time…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-04-21 Akshat Agarwal , Gautam Iyer , Aidan Jameson , Seungjae Son , Wyatt Wimmer

Iterated sampling importance resampling (i-SIR) is a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm which is based on $N$ independent proposals. As $N$ grows, its samples become nearly independent, but with an increased computational cost. We…

Computation · Statistics 2025-12-24 Pietari Laitinen , Matti Vihola

Stochastic sampling algorithms, while an attractive alternative to exact algorithms in very large Bayesian network models, have been observed to perform poorly in evidential reasoning with extremely unlikely evidence. To address this…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2011-06-02 J. Cheng , M. J. Druzdzel

Score-based diffusion models, while achieving minimax optimality for sampling, are often hampered by slow sampling speeds due to the high computational burden of score function evaluations. Despite the recent remarkable empirical advances…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-27 Gen Li , Changxiao Cai

We introduce a novel approach to boost the efficiency of the importance nested sampling (INS) technique for Bayesian posterior and evidence estimation using deep learning. Unlike rejection-based sampling methods such as vanilla nested…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2023-06-30 Johannes U. Lange

Multiple importance sampling (MIS) methods use a set of proposal distributions from which samples are drawn. Each sample is then assigned an importance weight that can be obtained according to different strategies. This work is motivated by…

Computation · Statistics 2015-05-21 Víctor Elvira , Luca Martino , David Luengo , Mónica F. Bugallo

Gaussian Process (GPs) models are a rich distribution over functions with inductive biases controlled by a kernel function. Learning occurs through the optimisation of kernel hyperparameters using the marginal likelihood as the objective.…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-11-22 Fergus Simpson , Vidhi Lalchand , Carl Edward Rasmussen

Importance sampling (IS) as an elegant and efficient variance reduction (VR) technique for the acceleration of stochastic optimization problems has attracted many researches recently. Unlike commonly adopted stochastic uniform sampling in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2017-11-02 Fei Wang , Xiaofeng Gao , Guihai Chen , Jun Ye

We propose a general and scalable approximate sampling strategy for probabilistic models with discrete variables. Our approach uses gradients of the likelihood function with respect to its discrete inputs to propose updates in a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-06-08 Will Grathwohl , Kevin Swersky , Milad Hashemi , David Duvenaud , Chris J. Maddison

An important statistical task in disease mapping problems is to identify divergent regions with unusually high or low risk of disease. Leave-one-out cross-validatory (LOOCV) model assessment is the gold standard for estimating predictive…

Applications · Statistics 2023-04-24 Longhai Li , Cindy X. Feng , Shi Qiu

A sequential importance sampling algorithm is developed for the distribution that results when a matrix of independent, but not identically distributed, Bernoulli random variables is conditioned on a given sequence of row and column sums.…

Computation · Statistics 2013-01-18 Matthew T. Harrison , Jeffrey W. Miller

This paper introduces score-based sequential Langevin sampling (SSLS), a novel approach to nonlinear data assimilation within a recursive Bayesian filtering framework. The proposed method decomposes the assimilation process into alternating…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2026-04-07 Zhao Ding , Chenguang Duan , Yuling Jiao , Jerry Zhijian Yang , Cheng Yuan , Pingwen Zhang

Annealed importance sampling is a means to assign equilibrium weights to a nonequilibrium sample that was generated by a simulated annealing protocol. The weights may then be used to calculate equilibrium averages, and also serve as an…

Biomolecules · Quantitative Biology 2009-11-13 Edward Lyman , Daniel M. Zuckerman

Sampling from multimodal distributions is a central challenge in Bayesian inference and machine learning. In light of hardness results for sampling -- classical MCMC methods, even with tempering, can suffer from exponential mixing times --…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-12-23 Holden Lee , Matheau Santana-Gijzen

Most solved dynamic structural macrofinance models are non-linear and/or non-Gaussian state-space models with high-dimensional and complex structures. We propose an annealed controlled sequential Monte Carlo method that delivers numerically…

Computation · Statistics 2022-01-05 Andras Fulop , Jeremy Heng , Junye Li

Building upon score-based learning, new interest in stochastic localization techniques has recently emerged. In these models, one seeks to noise a sample from the data distribution through a stochastic process, called observation process,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-02-24 Louis Grenioux , Maxence Noble , Marylou Gabrié , Alain Oliviero Durmus

Importance sampling (IS) represents a fundamental technique for a large surge of off-policy reinforcement learning approaches. Policy gradient (PG) methods, in particular, significantly benefit from IS, enabling the effective reuse of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-05-10 Matteo Papini , Giorgio Manganini , Alberto Maria Metelli , Marcello Restelli

We present the parallel and interacting stochastic approximation annealing (PISAA) algorithm, a stochastic simulation procedure for global optimisation, that extends and improves the stochastic approximation annealing (SAA) by using…

Computation · Statistics 2015-08-21 Georgios Karagiannis , Bledar A. Konomi , Guang Lin , Faming Liang

We introduce a new class of sequential Monte Carlo methods which reformulates the essence of the nested sampling method of Skilling (2006) in terms of sequential Monte Carlo techniques. Two new algorithms are proposed, nested sampling via…

In many applications, Bayesian inverse problems can give rise to probability distributions which contain complexities due to the Hessian varying greatly across parameter space. This complexity often manifests itself as lower dimensional…

Computation · Statistics 2020-07-28 Simon L. Cotter , Ioannis G. Kevrekidis , Paul Russell