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Rare event simulation and estimation for systems in equilibrium are among the most challenging topics in molecular dynamics. As was shown by Jarzynski and others, nonequilibrium forcing can theoretically be used to obtain equilibrium rare…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2015-06-11 Carsten Hartmann , Christof Schütte

We introduce a class of acquisition functions for sample selection that leads to faster convergence in applications related to Bayesian experimental design and uncertainty quantification. The approach follows the paradigm of active…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-04-12 Antoine Blanchard , Themistoklis Sapsis

This text presents one of the first successful applications of a rare events method for the study of multistability in a turbulent flow without stochastic energy injection. The trajectories of collapse of turbulence in plane Couette flow,…

Fluid Dynamics · Physics 2021-11-29 Joran Rolland

Transitional localised turbulence in shear flows is known to either decay to an absorbing laminar state or proliferate via splitting. The average passage times from one state to the other depend super-exponentially on the Reynolds number…

Fluid Dynamics · Physics 2022-05-12 S. Gomé , L. S. Tuckerman , D. Barkley

We propose a reduced-order model for the instantaneous hydrodynamic force on a cylinder. The model consists of a system of two ordinary differential equations (ODEs), which can be integrated in time to yield very accurate histories of the…

Fluid Dynamics · Physics 2024-10-21 Osama A. Marzouk

We study the problem of estimating optical flow from event cameras. One important issue is how to build a high-quality event-flow dataset with accurate event values and flow labels. Previous datasets are created by either capturing real…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2023-03-21 Xinglong Luo , Kunming Luo , Ao Luo , Zhengning Wang , Ping Tan , Shuaicheng Liu

In this paper we address the use of rare event computation techniques to estimate small over-threshold probabilities of observables in determin-istic dynamical systems. We demonstrate that the genealogical particle analysis algorithms can…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2016-09-21 Jeroen Wouters , Freddy Bouchet

In this paper, we introduce a new algorithm for rare event estimation based on adaptive importance sampling. We consider a smoothed version of the optimal importance sampling density, which is approximated by an ensemble of interacting…

Computation · Statistics 2023-04-19 Konstantin Althaus , Iason Papaioannou , Elisabeth Ullmann

Although many computational methods for rare event sampling exist, this type of calculation is not usually practical for general nonequilibrium conditions, with macroscopically irreversible dynamics and away from both stationary and…

Mesoscale and Nanoscale Physics · Physics 2015-05-18 Joshua T. Berryman , Tanja Schilling

The recrossing correction to the transition state theory estimate of a thermal rate can be difficult to calculate when the energy barrier is flat. This problem arises, for example, in polymer escape if the polymer is long enough to stretch…

Soft Condensed Matter · Physics 2016-09-21 Harri Mökkönen , Tapio Ala-Nissila , Hannes Jónsson

We propose a physics-constrained machine learning method-based on reservoir computing- to time-accurately predict extreme events and long-term velocity statistics in a model of turbulent shear flow. The method leverages the strengths of two…

Fluid Dynamics · Physics 2021-04-14 Nguyen Anh Khoa Doan , Wolfgang Polifke , Luca Magri

Estimating rare events in complex systems is a key challenge in reliability analysis. The challenge grows in multimodal problems, where traditional methods often rely on a small set of design points and risk overlooking critical failure…

Computation · Statistics 2025-08-04 Sara Helal , Victor Elvira

Interacting particle systems with many degrees of freedom may undergo phase transitions to sustain atypical fluctuations of dynamical observables such as the current or the activity. This leads in some cases to symmetry-broken space-time…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2019-08-23 Carlos Pérez-Espigares , Pablo I. Hurtado

We consider the problem of sampling transition paths between two given metastable states of a molecular system, e.g. a folded and unfolded protein or products and reactants of a chemical reaction. Due to the existence of high energy…

Biomolecules · Quantitative Biology 2023-07-19 Lars Holdijk , Yuanqi Du , Ferry Hooft , Priyank Jaini , Bernd Ensing , Max Welling

The computer simulation of many molecular processes is complicated by long time scales caused by rare transitions between long-lived states. Here, we propose a new approach to simulate such rare events, which combines transition path…

Computational Physics · Physics 2023-03-23 Sebastian Falkner , Alessandro Coretti , Christoph Dellago

In the domain of computer vision, optical flow stands as a cornerstone for unraveling dynamic visual scenes. However, the challenge of accurately estimating optical flow under conditions of large nonlinear motion patterns remains an open…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2024-10-15 Chanuka Algama , Kasun Amarasinghe

We employ the Bayesian improved cross entropy (BiCE) method for rare event estimation in static networks and choose the categorical mixture as the parametric family to capture the dependence among network components. At each iteration of…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-09-25 Jianpeng Chan , Iason Papaioannou , Daniel Straub

Temperature-accelerated sliced sampling (TASS) is a well-established enhanced sampling method that facilitates exhaustive exploration of high-dimensional collective variable (CV) space through directed sampling employing a combination of…

Chemical Physics · Physics 2025-09-08 Sameer Saurav , Debjit Das , Ramsha Javed , Nisanth N. Nair

Recent learning-based methods for event-based optical flow estimation utilize cost volumes for pixel matching but suffer from redundant computations and limited scalability to higher resolutions for flow refinement. In this work, we take…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-06-23 Daikun Liu , Lei Cheng , Teng Wang , changyin Sun

The modern theory of rare events is grounded in near equilibrium ideas, however many systems of modern interest are sufficiently far from equilibrium that traditional approaches do not apply. Using the recently developed variational path…

Chemical Physics · Physics 2025-02-14 Aditya N. Singh , David T. Limmer