Related papers: A Bayesian Bradley-Terry model to compare multiple…
Randomized experiments play a major role in data-driven decision making across many different fields and disciplines. In medicine, for example, randomized controlled trials (RCTs) are the backbone of clinical trial methodology for testing…
The Bayesian transformed Gaussian process (BTG) model, proposed by Kedem and Oliviera, is a fully Bayesian counterpart to the warped Gaussian process (WGP) and marginalizes out a joint prior over input warping and kernel hyperparameters.…
We consider comparisons of statistical learning algorithms using multiple data sets, via leave-one-in cross-study validation: each of the algorithms is trained on one data set; the resulting model is then validated on each remaining data…
Bayesian model comparison (BMC) offers a principled approach for assessing the relative merits of competing computational models and propagating uncertainty into model selection decisions. However, BMC is often intractable for the popular…
Background: Mendelian randomization (MR) has been widely applied to causal inference in medical research. It uses genetic variants as instrumental variables (IVs) to investigate putative causal relationship between an exposure and an…
The performance of many machine learning models depends on their hyper-parameter settings. Bayesian Optimization has become a successful tool for hyper-parameter optimization of machine learning algorithms, which aims to identify optimal…
Bayesian optimization (BO) algorithms try to optimize an unknown function that is expensive to evaluate using minimum number of evaluations/experiments. Most of the proposed algorithms in BO are sequential, where only one experiment is…
Given the cost and duration of phase III and phase IV clinical trials, the development of statistical methods for go/no-go decisions is vital. In this paper, we introduce a Bayesian methodology to compute the probability of success based on…
Several methods of preference modeling, ranking, voting and multi-criteria decision making include pairwise comparisons. It is usually simpler to compare two objects at a time, furthermore, some relations (e.g., the outcome of sports…
Pairwise comparison data are widely used to infer latent rankings in areas such as sports, social choice, and machine learning. The Bradley-Terry model provides a foundational probabilistic framework but inherently assumes transitive…
Bayesian Optimization is a sample-efficient black-box optimization procedure that is typically applied to problems with a small number of independent objectives. However, in practice we often wish to optimize objectives defined over many…
Bradley-Terry-Luce (BTL) model estimation is a well-established strategy to rank a collection of items given a dataset of pairwise comparisons. Although the theoretical performance of BTL estimation methods, such as spectral and maximum…
Usually one compares the accuracy of two competing classifiers via null hypothesis significance tests (nhst). Yet the nhst tests suffer from important shortcomings, which can be overcome by switching to Bayesian hypothesis testing. We…
This paper uses Bayesian tree models for statistical benchmarking in data sets with awkward marginals and complicated dependence structures. The method is applied to a very large database on corporate performance over the last four decades.…
The question of aggregating pair-wise comparisons to obtain a global ranking over a collection of objects has been of interest for a very long time: be it ranking of online gamers (e.g. MSR's TrueSkill system) and chess players, aggregating…
For nonbalanced paired comparisons, a wide variety of ranking methods have been proposed. One of the best popular methods is the Bradley-Terry model in which the ranking of a set of objects is decided by the maximum likelihood estimates…
The multi-task learning (MTL) paradigm can be traced back to an early paper of Caruana (1997) in which it was argued that data from multiple tasks can be used with the aim to obtain a better performance over learning each task…
Informed and robust decision making in the face of uncertainty is critical for robots that perform physical tasks alongside people. We formulate this as Bayesian Reinforcement Learning over latent Markov Decision Processes (MDPs). While…
Multilevel linear models allow flexible statistical modelling of complex data with different levels of stratification. Identifying the most appropriate model from the large set of possible candidates is a challenging problem. In the…
This paper presents a performance comparison of different estimation and prediction techniques applied to the problem of tracking multiple robots. The main performance criteria are the magnitude of the estimation or prediction error, the…