Related papers: Monte Carlo twisting for particle filters
We show that it is feasible to carry out exact Bayesian inference for non-Gaussian state space models using an adaptive Metropolis Hastings sampling scheme with the likelihood approximated by the particle filter. Furthermore, an adapyive…
This paper presents a seamless algorithm for the application of the multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) method to the ensemble transform particle filter (ETPF). The algorithm uses a combination of optimal coupling transformations between coarse…
Particle filtering is a powerful tool for target tracking. When the budget for observations is restricted, it is necessary to reduce the measurements to a limited amount of samples carefully selected. A discrete stochastic nonlinear…
Sequential Monte Carlo methods have been a major breakthrough in the field of numerical signal processing for stochastic dynamical state-space systems with partial and noisy observations. However, these methods still present certain…
We demonstrate a scaling method for non-Markovian Monte Carlo wave-function simulations used to study open quantum systems weakly coupled to their environments. We derive a scaling equation, from which the result for the expectation values…
Monte Carlo methods are widely used importance sampling techniques for studying complex physical systems. Integrating these methods with deep learning has significantly improved efficiency and accuracy in high-dimensional problems and…
In parameter estimation problems one computes a posterior distribution over uncertain parameters defined jointly by a prior distribution, a model, and noisy data. Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is often used for the numerical solution of…
Calculating true volatility is an essential task for option pricing and risk management. However, it is made difficult by market microstructure noise. Particle filtering has been proposed to solve this problem as it favorable statistical…
We design a particle interpretation of Feynman-Kac measures on path spaces based on a backward Markovian representation combined with a traditional mean field particle interpretation of the flow of their final time marginals. In contrast to…
We introduce a stacking version of the Monte Carlo algorithm in the context of option pricing. Introduced recently for aeronautic computations, this simple technique, in the spirit of current machine learning ideas, learns control variates…
Monte Carlo (MC) sampling algorithms are an extremely widely-used technique to estimate expectations of functions f(x), especially in high dimensions. Control variates are a very powerful technique to reduce the error of such estimates, but…
Auxiliary particle filters (APFs) are a class of sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods for Bayesian inference in state-space models. In their original derivation, APFs operate in an extended state space using an auxiliary variable to improve…
Particle filters flexibly represent multiple posterior modes nonparametrically, via a collection of weighted samples, but have classically been applied to tracking problems with known dynamics and observation likelihoods. Such generative…
Particle smoothers are widely used algorithms allowing to approximate the smoothing distribution in hidden Markov models. Existing algorithms often suffer from slow computational time or degeneracy. We propose in this paper a way to improve…
We propose a method to efficiently integrate truncated probability densities. The method uses Markov chain Monte Carlo method to sample from a probability density matching the function being integrated. The required normalisation or…
Monte Carlo methods play a central role in particle physics, where they are indispensable for simulating scattering processes, modeling detector responses, and performing multi-dimensional integrals. However, traditional Monte Carlo methods…
We present a new approach-the ALVar estimator-to estimation of asymptotic variance in sequential Monte Carlo methods, or, particle filters. The method, which adjusts adaptively the lag of the estimator proposed in [Olsson, J. and Douc, R.…
This paper extends the Multilevel Monte Carlo variance reduction technique to nonlinear filtering. In particular, Multilevel Monte Carlo is applied to a certain variant of the particle filter, the Ensemble Transform Particle Filter. A key…
We consider the problem of approximate belief-state monitoring using particle filtering for the purposes of implementing a policy for a partially-observable Markov decision process (POMDP). While particle filtering has become a widely-used…
We show how information on the uniformity properties of a point set employed in numerical multidimensional integration can be used to improve the error estimate over the usual Monte Carlo one. We introduce a new measure of (non-)uniformity…