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We propose a novel approach for inferring the individualized causal effects of a treatment (intervention) from observational data. Our approach conceptualizes causal inference as a multitask learning problem; we model a subject's potential…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2017-06-20 Ahmed M. Alaa , Michael Weisz , Mihaela van der Schaar

Accurate estimation of treatment effects is essential for decision-making across various scientific fields. This task, however, becomes challenging in areas like social sciences and online marketplaces, where treating one experimental unit…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-04 Mohsen Bayati , Yuwei Luo , William Overman , Sadegh Shirani , Ruoxuan Xiong

Estimation of causal effects is fundamental in situations were the underlying system will be subject to active interventions. Part of building a causal inference engine is defining how variables relate to each other, that is, defining the…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-03-02 Sergio Garrido , Stanislav S. Borysov , Jeppe Rich , Francisco C. Pereira

Recent developments in causal inference allow us to transport a causal effect of a time-fixed treatment from a randomized trial to a target population across space but within the same time frame. In contrast to transportability across…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-11 Laura Forastiere , Fan Li , Michela Baccini

Causal inference across multiple data sources offers a promising avenue to enhance the generalizability and replicability of scientific findings. However, data integration methods for time-to-event outcomes, common in biomedical research,…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-05-16 Yi Liu , Alexander W. Levis , Ke Zhu , Shu Yang , Peter B. Gilbert , Larry Han

To draw scientifically meaningful conclusions and build reliable models of quantitative phenomena, cause and effect must be taken into consideration (either implicitly or explicitly). This is particularly challenging when the measurements…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-12-11 Max A. Little , Reham Badawy

Randomized clinical trials (RCTs) are ideal for estimating causal effects, because the distributions of background covariates are similar in expectation across treatment groups. When estimating causal effects using observational data,…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-02-27 Anthony D. Scotina , Roee Gutman

Randomized Controlled Trials (RCTs) represent a gold standard when developing policy guidelines. However, RCTs are often narrow, and lack data on broader populations of interest. Causal effects in these populations are often estimated using…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-03-07 Zeshan Hussain , Michael Oberst , Ming-Chieh Shih , David Sontag

Meta-analysis, by synthesizing effect estimates from multiple studies conducted in diverse settings, stands at the top of the evidence hierarchy in clinical research. Yet, conventional approaches based on fixed- or random-effects models…

Estimating how a treatment affects different individuals, known as heterogeneous treatment effect estimation, is an important problem in empirical sciences. In the last few years, there has been a considerable interest in adapting machine…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-18 Christopher Tran , Keith Burghardt , Kristina Lerman , Elena Zheleva

The abundance of data produced daily from large variety of sources has boosted the need of novel approaches on causal inference analysis from observational data. Observational data often contain noisy or missing entries. Moreover, causal…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-03-14 Fani Tsapeli , Peter Tino , Mirco Musolesi

In causal inference, interference occurs when the treatment of one unit may affect the outcomes of other units. The goal of this work is to serve as a guide to the use of linear outcome modeling for estimating causal effects in settings…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-01 Eric Tong , Salvador V. Balkus

Inference for fixed effects estimators is often unreliable due to Nickell- and incidental parameter biases. While these issues are well understood for classical two-dimensional panels, little is known about three-dimensional panel…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-05-05 Daniel Czarnowske , Amrei Stammann

Causal inference has numerous real-world applications in many domains, such as health care, marketing, political science, and online advertising. Treatment effect estimation, a fundamental problem in causal inference, has been extensively…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-02-03 Zhixuan Chu , Jianmin Huang , Ruopeng Li , Wei Chu , Sheng Li

Causal inference methods based on electronic health record (EHR) databases must simultaneously handle confounding and missing data. Vast scholarship exists aimed at addressing these two issues separately, but surprisingly few papers attempt…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-28 Luke Benz , Alexander Levis , Sebastien Haneuse

Real world observational data, together with causal inference, allow the estimation of causal effects when randomized controlled trials are not available. To be accepted into practice, such predictive models must be validated for the…

Counterfactual learning has become promising for understanding and modeling causality in complex and dynamic systems. This paper presents a novel method for counterfactual learning in the context of multivariate time series analysis and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-03 Gianlucca Zuin , Adriano Veloso

Predictions and generations from large language models are increasingly being explored as an aid in limited data regimes, such as in computational social science and human subjects research. While prior technical work has mainly explored…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-09 Yewon Byun , Shantanu Gupta , Zachary C. Lipton , Rachel Leah Childers , Bryan Wilder

Causal inference and the estimation of causal effects plays a central role in decision-making across many areas, including healthcare and economics. Estimating causal effects typically requires an estimator that is tailored to each problem…

We address the challenge of inferring causal effects in social network data. This results in challenges due to interference -- where a unit's outcome is affected by neighbors' treatments -- and network-induced confounding factors. While…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-20 Seyedeh Baharan Khatami , Harsh Parikh , Haowei Chen , Sudeepa Roy , Babak Salimi
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