Related papers: A Hawkes model with CARMA(p,q) intensity

In the last decade, Hawkes processes have received a lot of attention as good models for functional connectivity in neural spiking networks. In this paper we consider a variant of this process, the Age Dependent Hawkes process, which…

We consider a system of $N$ Hawkes processes and observe the actions of a subpopulation of size $K \le N$ up to time $t$, where $K$ is large. The influence relationships between each pair of individuals are modeled by i.i.d.Bernoulli($p$)…

We consider the problem of learning the network of mutual excitations (i.e., the dependency graph) in a non-stationary, multivariate Hawkes process. We consider a general setting where baseline rates at each node are time-varying and delay…

Irregular and asynchronous event sequences are prevalent in many domains, such as social media, finance, and healthcare. Traditional temporal point processes (TPPs), like Hawkes processes, often struggle to model mutual inhibition and…

Hawkes Process has been used to model Limit Order Book (LOB) dynamics in several ways in the literature however the focus has been limited to capturing the inter-event times while the order size is usually assumed to be constant. We propose…

Continuous-time autoregressive moving average (CARMA) processes have recently been used widely in the modeling of non-uniformly spaced data and as a tool for dealing with high-frequency data of the form $Y_{n\Delta}, n=0,1,2,...$, where…

In this work, several convergence results are established for nearly critical self-excited systems in which event arrivals are described by multivariate marked Hawkes point processes. Under some mild high-frequency assumptions, the rescaled…

We observe $n$ inhomogeneous Poisson processes with covariates and aim at estimating their intensities. We assume that the intensity of each Poisson process is of the form $s (\cdot, x)$ where $x$ is the covariate and where $s$ is an…

Temporal point processes (TPP) are a natural tool for modeling event-based data. Among all TPP models, Hawkes processes have proven to be the most widely used, mainly due to their adequate modeling for various applications, particularly…

We derive an energy bound for inertial Hegselmann-Krause (HK) systems, which we define as a variant of the classic HK model in which the agents can change their weights arbitrarily at each step. We use the bound to prove the convergence of…

In this paper we consider some non linear Hawkes processes with signed reproduction function (or memory kernel) thus exhibiting both self-excitation and inhibition. We provide a Law of Large Numbers, a Central Limit Theorem and large…

Self- and mutually-exciting point processes are popular models in machine learning and statistics for dependent discrete event data. To date, most existing models assume stationary kernels (including the classical Hawkes processes) and…

We aim to explicitly model the delayed Granger causal effects based on multivariate Hawkes processes. The idea is inspired by the fact that a causal event usually takes some time to exert an effect. Studying this time lag itself is of…

We prove regenerative properties for the linear Hawkes process under minimal assumptions on the transfer function, which may have unbounded support. These results are applicable to sliding window statistical estimators. We exploit…

We study the multiplicative hazards model with intermittently observed longitudinal covariates and time-varying coefficients. For such models, the existing ad hoc approach, such as the last value carried forward, is biased. We propose a…

We propose a novel approach to parameter estimation for simulator-based statistical models with intractable likelihood. Our proposed method involves recursive application of kernel ABC and kernel herding to the same observed data. We…

This article presents a Hawkes process model with Markovian baseline intensities for high-frequency order book data modeling. We classify intraday order book trading events into a range of categories based on their order types and the price…

The rapid growth of social media has been witnessed during recent years as a result of the prevalence of the internet. This trend brings an increasing interest in simulating social media which can provide valuable insights to both academic…

Linear multivariate Hawkes processes (MHP) are a fundamental class of point processes with self-excitation. When estimating parameters for these processes, a difficulty is that the two main error functionals, the log-likelihood and the…

We generalise the construction of multivariate Hawkes processes to a possibly infinite network of counting processes on a directed graph $\mathbb G$. The process is constructed as the solution to a system of Poisson driven stochastic…