English
Related papers

Related papers: A Hawkes model with CARMA(p,q) intensity

200 papers

Many self-exciting systems change because endogenous amplification, as opposed to exogenous forcing, varies. We study a Hawkes process with fixed background rate and kernel, but piecewise time-varying productivity. For exponential kernels…

Other Statistics · Statistics 2025-12-30 Conor Kresin , Boris Baeumer , Sophie Phillips

We propose an extension to Hawkes processes by treating the levels of self-excitation as a stochastic differential equation. Our new point process allows better approximation in application domains where events and intensities accelerate…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2016-09-23 Young Lee , Kar Wai Lim , Cheng Soon Ong

The Hawkes self-excited point process provides an efficient representation of the bursty intermittent dynamics of many physical, biological, geological and economic systems. By expressing the probability for the next event per unit time…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2020-09-23 Kiyoshi Kanazawa , Didier Sornette

We introduce a novel and efficient simulation scheme for Hawkes processes on a fixed time grid, leveraging their affine Volterra structure. The key idea is to first simulate the integrated intensity and the counting process using Inverse…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-11-18 Eduardo Abi Jaber , Elie Attal , Dimitri Sotnikov

Hawkes Processes are a type of point process for modeling self-excitation, i.e., when the occurrence of an event makes future events more likely to occur. The corresponding self-triggering function of this type of process may be inferred…

Applications · Statistics 2018-06-01 Rafael Lima , Jaesik Choi

We investigate spatio-temporal event analysis using point processes. Inferring the dynamics of event sequences spatiotemporally has many practical applications including crime prediction, social media analysis, and traffic forecasting. In…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-02-17 Fatih Ilhan , Suleyman Serdar Kozat

The Hawkes model is a past-dependent point process, widely used in various fields for modeling temporal clustering of events. Extending this framework, the multidimensional marked Hawkes process incorporates multiple interacting event types…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-05-20 Anna Bonnet , Charlotte Dion-Blanc , Maya Sadeler-Perrin

The paper considers high frequency sampled multivariate continuous-time ARMA (MCARMA) models, and derives the asymptotic behavior of the sample autocovariance function to a normal random matrix. Moreover, we obtain the asymptotic behavior…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-08-10 Vicky Fasen

We introduce the Hyperedge-triggered Hawkes (HTH) process for inferring higher-order interaction structure in multi-cellular systems from asynchronous event-time data. Beyond standard pairwise excitation, the HTH intensity includes a term…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-27 Zihan Xu

The Hawks process is a point process with a self-exciting property. It has been used to model earthquakes, social media events, infections, etc., and is getting a lot of attention. However, as a real problem, there are often situations…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-07-30 Masatoshi Goda

Hawkes Processes are a type of point process which models self-excitement among time events. It has been used in a myriad of applications, ranging from finance and earthquakes to crime rates and social network activity analysis.Recently, a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-01-05 Rafael Lima

Hawkes processes have recently gained increasing attention from the machine learning community for their versatility in modeling event sequence data. While they have a rich history going back decades, some of their properties, such as…

Hawkes processes are a class of point processes that have the ability to model the self- and mutual-exciting phenomena. Although the classic Hawkes processes cover a wide range of applications, their expressive ability is limited due to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-06-10 Feng Zhou , Quyu Kong , Yixuan Zhang , Cheng Feng , Jun Zhu

A point process for event arrivals in high frequency trading is presented. The intensity is the product of a Hawkes process and high dimensional functions of covariates derived from the order book. Conditions for stationarity of the process…

Trading and Market Microstructure · Quantitative Finance 2026-05-12 Luca Mucciante , Alessio Sancetta

Hawkes Processes capture self-excitation and mutual-excitation between events when the arrival of an event makes future events more likely to happen. Identification of such temporal covariance can reveal the underlying structure to better…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-06-03 Rafael Lima , Jaesik Choi

We propose a simulation method for multidimensional Hawkes processes based on superposition theory of point processes. This formulation allows us to design efficient simulations for Hawkes processes with differing exponentially decaying…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-03-14 Kar Wai Lim , Young Lee , Leif Hanlen , Hongbiao Zhao

We propose a novel class of network models for temporal dyadic interaction data. Our goal is to capture a number of important features often observed in social interactions: sparsity, degree heterogeneity, community structure and…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-10-30 Xenia Miscouridou , François Caron , Yee Whye Teh

The Hawkes process (HP) is commonly used to model event sequences with self-reinforcing dynamics, including electronic health records (EHRs). Traditional HPs capture self-reinforcement via parametric impact functions that can be inspected…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-10-23 Yuankang Zhao , Matthew Engelhard

Targeting a better understanding of credit market dynamics, the authors have studied a stochastic model named the Hawkes process. Describing trades arrival times, this kind of model allows for the capture of self-excitement and mutual…

Applications · Statistics 2019-02-12 Achraf Bahamou , Maud Doumergue , Philippe Donnat

In this paper we fill a gap in the literature by providing exact and explicit expressions for the correlation of general Hawkes processes together with its intensity process. Our methodology relies on the Poisson imbedding representation…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-04-06 Caroline Hillairet , Anthony Reveillac