Related papers: Simulation and application of COVID-19 compartment…
A physics-informed neural network (PINN) embedded with the susceptible-infected-removed (SIR) model is devised to understand the temporal evolution dynamics of infectious diseases. Firstly, the effectiveness of this approach is demonstrated…
The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the need for quantitative modeling and analysis to understand real-world disease dynamics. In particular, post hoc analyses using compartmental models offer valuable insights into the effectiveness of…
Accurate forecasting of contagious diseases is critical for public health policymaking and pandemic preparedness. We propose a new infectious disease forecasting model based on physics-informed neural networks (PINNs), an emerging…
A variety of approaches using compartmental models have been used to study the COVID-19 pandemic and the usage of machine learning methods with these models has had particularly notable success. We present here an approach toward analyzing…
Compartmental models provide simple and efficient tools to analyze the relevant transmission processes during an outbreak, to produce short-term forecasts or transmission scenarios, and to assess the impact of vaccination campaigns.…
As the COVID-19 pandemic evolves, reliable prediction plays an important role for policy making. The classical infectious disease model SEIR (susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered) is a compact yet simplistic temporal model. The…
Data-driven deep learning provides efficient algorithms for parameter identification of epidemiology models. Unlike the constant parameters, the complexity of identifying time-varying parameters is largely increased. In this paper, a…
The outbreaks of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) have impacted the world significantly. Modeling the trend of infection and real-time forecasting of cases can help decision making and control of the disease spread. However, data-driven…
Reaction-diffusion epidemic models with vital dynamics are an important framework for describing the spatial and temporal spread of infectious diseases. In this work, we present a constraint-aware, physics-informed neural network (PINN)…
Physics informed neural networks (PINNs) have proven to be an efficient tool to represent problems for which measured data are available and for which the dynamics in the data are expected to follow some physical laws. In this paper, we…
We examine the age-structured SIR model, a variant of the classical Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model of epidemic propagation, in the context of COVID-19. In doing so, we provide a theoretical basis for the model, perform an…
We present an early version of a Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered-Deceased (SEIRD) mathematical model based on partial differential equations coupled with a heterogeneous diffusion model. The model describes the spatio-temporal spread…
The spread of COVID-19 during the initial phase of the first half of 2020 was curtailed to a larger or lesser extent through measures of social distancing imposed by most countries. In this work, we link directly, through machine learning…
Since the outbreak of COVID-19, an astronomical number of publications on the pandemic dynamics appeared in the literature, of which many use the susceptible infected removed (SIR) and susceptible exposed infected removed (SEIR) models, or…
We established a Spatio-Temporal Neural Network, namely STNN, to forecast the spread of the coronavirus COVID-19 outbreak worldwide in 2020. The basic structure of STNN is similar to the Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) incorporating with not…
Compartmental models are a tool commonly used in epidemiology for the mathematical modelling of the spread of infectious diseases, with their most popular representative being the Susceptible-Infected-Removed (SIR) model and its…
The spread of many infectious diseases is modeled using variants of the SIR compartmental model, which is a coupled differential equation. The coefficients of the SIR model determine the spread trajectories of disease, on whose basis…
The Covid-19 outbreak of 2020 has required many governments to develop and adopt mathematical-statistical models of the pandemic for policy and planning purposes. To this end, this work provides a tutorial on building a compartmental model…
This work focuses on understanding the minimum eradication time for the controlled Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR) model in the time-homogeneous setting, where the infection and recovery rates are constant. The eradication time is…
We demonstrate an approach to replicate and forecast the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) pandemic using the toolkit of probabilistic programming languages (PPLs). Our goal is to study the impact of various modeling assumptions and…