Related papers: Coherence without Rationality at the Zero Lower Bo…
This paper demonstrates the existence of a finite set of equilibria in the case of the indeterminacy of linear rational expectations models. The number of equilibria corresponds to the number of ways to select n eigenvectors among a larger…
One way to make decisions under uncertainty is to select an optimal option from a possible range of options, by maximizing the expected utilities derived from a probability model. However, under severe uncertainty, identifying precise…
This paper proposes a framework in which agents are constrained to use simple models to forecast economic variables and characterizes the resulting biases. It considers agents who can only entertain state-space models with no more than d…
The program to construct minimum-uncertainty coherent states for general potentials works transparently with solvable analytic potentials. However, when an analytic potential is not completely solvable, like for a double-well or the linear…
Conformal Prediction provides distribution-free prediction intervals with guaranteed coverage, but its reliance on a single global calibration threshold obscures the sources of uncertainty at the instance level. In particular, it conflates…
We formalize two independent computational limitations that constrain algorithmic intelligence: formal incompleteness and dynamical unpredictability. The former limits the deductive power of consistent reasoning systems while the latter…
Many economic theory models incorporate finiteness assumptions that, while introduced for simplicity, play a real role in the analysis. We provide a principled framework for scaling results from such models by removing these finiteness…
Interactive constraint systems often suffer from infeasibility (no solution) due to conflicting user constraints. A common approach to recover infeasibility is to eliminate the constraints that cause the conflicts in the system. This…
Game theoretic equilibria are mathematical expressions of rationality. Rational agents are used to model not only humans and their software representatives, but also organisms, populations, species and genes, interacting with each other and…
In scientific inference problems, the underlying statistical modeling assumptions have a crucial impact on the end results. There exist, however, only a few automatic means for validating these fundamental modelling assumptions. The…
We study continuity and robustness properties of infinite-horizon average expected cost problems with respect to (controlled) transition kernels, and applications of these results to the problem of robustness of control policies designed…
Model-based planners for partially observable problems must accommodate both model uncertainty during planning and goal uncertainty during objective inference. However, model-based planners may be brittle under these types of uncertainty…
Linear fusion of estimates under the condition of no knowledge of correlation of estimation errors has reached maturity. On the other hand, various cases of partial knowledge are still active research areas. A frequent motivation is to deal…
One widely-existed state --``harmony with diversity" in which individuals freely express various viewpoints to sustain integration of social diversity, but at the same time shared values ensure social coherence, can be considered as the…
Missing values arise in most real-world data sets due to the aggregation of multiple sources and intrinsically missing information (sensor failure, unanswered questions in surveys...). In fact, the very nature of missing values usually…
Here we introduce the idea of using rational expectations, a core concept in economics and finance, as a tool to predict the optimal failure time for a wide class of weighted k-out-of-n reliability systems. We illustrate the concept by…
Among the various forms of reasoning studied in the context of artificial intelligence, qualitative reasoning makes it possible to infer new knowledge in the context of imprecise, incomplete information without numerical values. In this…
Calibration strengthens the trustworthiness of black-box models by producing better accurate confidence estimates on given examples. However, little is known about if model explanations can help confidence calibration. Intuitively, humans…
Objective: This paper proposes a framework to support the scientific research of standards so that they can be better measured, evaluated, and designed. Methods: Beginning with the notion of common models, the framework describes the…
The evolution of observable quantities of finite quantum systems is analyzed when the latter are subject to nondestructive measurements. The type and number of measurements characterize the level of decoherence produced in the system. A…