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This paper develops a variance estimation framework for matching estimators that enables valid population inference for treatment effects. We provide theoretical analysis of a variance estimator that addresses key limitations in the…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-06-16 Xiang Meng , Aaron Smith , Luke Miratrix

While sensitivity analysis improves the transparency and reliability of mathematical models, its uptake by modelers is still scarce. This is partially explained by its technical requirements, which may be hard to understand and implement by…

Applications · Statistics 2023-03-20 Arnald Puy , Pamphile T. Roy , Andrea Saltelli

We present methods for estimating loss-based measures of the performance of a prediction model in a target population that differs from the source population in which the model was developed, in settings where outcome and covariate data are…

Weighting procedures are used in observational causal inference to adjust for covariate imbalance within the sample. Common practice for inference is to estimate robust standard errors from a weighted regression of outcome on treatment.…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-29 Erin Hartman , Chad Hazlett , Arisa Sadeghpour

Survival outcomes are common in comparative effectiveness studies and require unique handling because they are usually incompletely observed due to right-censoring. A ``once for all'' approach for causal inference with survival outcomes…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-12-21 Shuxi Zeng , Fan Li , Liangyuan Hu , Fan Li

The paper introduces a novel approach to global sensitivity analysis, grounded in the variance-covariance structure of random variables derived from random measures. The proposed methodology facilitates the application of…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-20 Caleb Deen Bastian , Herschel Rabitz , Grzegorz A Rempala

Propensity score methods are an important tool to help reduce confounding in non-experimental studies. Most propensity score methods assume that covariates are measured without error. However, covariates are often measured with error, which…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-06-08 Hwanhee Hong , David A. Aaby , Juned Siddique , Elizabeth A. Stuart

In empirical research, when we have multiple estimators for the same parameter of interest, a central question arises: how do we combine unbiased but less precise estimators with biased but more precise ones to improve the inference? Under…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-19 Zhexiao Lin , Peter J. Bickel , Peng Ding

Sensitivity analysis is popular in dealing with missing data problems particularly for non-ignorable missingness. It analyses how sensitively the conclusions may depend on assumptions about missing data e.g. missing data mechanism (MDM). We…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-01-26 Peng Yin , Jian Qing Shi

The propensity score is widely used for causal inference in observational studies, but common parametric estimators can produce biased and inefficient effect estimates when model assumptions are violated. Nonparametric approaches reduce…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-09 Maosen Peng , Yan Li , Chong Wu , Liang Li

Consider sensitivity analysis for estimating average treatment effects under unmeasured confounding, assumed to satisfy a marginal sensitivity model. At the population level, we provide new representations for the sharp population bounds…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-09-26 Zhiqiang Tan

Detecting and measuring confounding effects from data is a key challenge in causal inference. Existing methods frequently assume causal sufficiency, disregarding the presence of unobserved confounding variables. Causal sufficiency is both…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-09-27 Abbavaram Gowtham Reddy , Vineeth N Balasubramanian

Background: The E-value has become widely used for assessing robustness to unmeasured confounding in observational studies, but the original framework was developed for single time-point exposure-outcome settings. This study extends the…

Applications · Statistics 2026-03-02 Md. Niamul Islam Sium

A key objective of decomposition analysis is to identify a factor (the 'mediator') contributing to disparities in an outcome between social groups. In decomposition analysis, a scholarly interest often centers on estimating how much the…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-05-27 Soojin Park , Suyeon Kang , Chioun Lee , Shujie Ma

We study confidence intervals based on hard-thresholding, soft-thresholding, and adaptive soft-thresholding in a linear regression model where the number of regressors $k$ may depend on and diverge with sample size $n$. In addition to the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-10-08 Ulrike Schneider

As one of the most commonly seen data challenges, missing data, in particular, multiple, non-monotone missing patterns, complicates estimation and inference due to the fact that missingness mechanisms are often not missing at random, and…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-04-21 Jianing Dong , Raymond K. W. Wong , Kwun Chuen Gary Chan

In observational studies, contingency tables provide a simple and intuitive approach to study associations between categorical variables. However, any test of association in contingency tables may be biased due to unmeasured confounders.…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-10 Elaine K. Chiu , Hyunseung Kang

We study policy evaluation of offline contextual bandits subject to unobserved confounders. Sensitivity analysis methods are commonly used to estimate the policy value under the worst-case confounding over a given uncertainty set. However,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-01-13 Kei Ishikawa , Niao He , Takafumi Kanamori

This paper introduces a novel Bayesian approach to detect changes in the variance of a Gaussian sequence model, focusing on quantifying the uncertainty in the change point locations and providing a scalable algorithm for inference. Such a…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-03-04 Lorenzo Cappello , Oscar Hernan Madrid Padilla

Inferring the causal effect of a non-randomly assigned exposure on an outcome requires adjusting for common causes of the exposure and outcome to avoid biased conclusions. Notwithstanding the efforts investigators routinely make to measure…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-02-04 Wen Wei Loh , Stijn Vansteelandt