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Compartmental models provide simple and efficient tools to analyze the relevant transmission processes during an outbreak, to produce short-term forecasts or transmission scenarios, and to assess the impact of vaccination campaigns.…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2025-02-19 Caterina Millevoi , Damiano Pasetto , Massimiliano Ferronato

Data-driven deep learning provides efficient algorithms for parameter identification of epidemiology models. Unlike the constant parameters, the complexity of identifying time-varying parameters is largely increased. In this paper, a…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2021-03-19 Jie Long , Abdul Khaliq , Khaled Furati

A physics-informed neural network (PINN) embedded with the susceptible-infected-removed (SIR) model is devised to understand the temporal evolution dynamics of infectious diseases. Firstly, the effectiveness of this approach is demonstrated…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2025-04-08 Shuai Han , Lukas Stelz , Horst Stoecker , Lingxiao Wang , Kai Zhou

The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the need for quantitative modeling and analysis to understand real-world disease dynamics. In particular, post hoc analyses using compartmental models offer valuable insights into the effectiveness of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-09 Phillip Rothenbeck , Sai Karthikeya Vemuri , Niklas Penzel , Joachim Denzler

Accurate forecasting of contagious diseases is critical for public health policymaking and pandemic preparedness. We propose a new infectious disease forecasting model based on physics-informed neural networks (PINNs), an emerging…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-04-30 Ying Qian , Kui Zhang , Éric Marty , Avranil Basu , Eamon B. O'Dea , Xianqiao Wang , Spencer Fox , Pejman Rohani , John M. Drake , He Li

Physics-Informed Neural Network (PINN) is a deep learning framework that integrates the governing equations underlying data into a loss function. In this study, we consider the problem of estimating state variables and parameters in…

Symbolic Computation · Computer Science 2025-08-07 Mizuka Komatsu

COVID-19 pandemic has had a disruptive and irreversible impact globally, yet traditional epidemiological modeling approaches such as the susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model have exhibited limited effectiveness in forecasting of the…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2022-10-13 Jinhuan Ke , Jiahao Ma , Xiyu Yin , Robin Singh

Physics informed neural networks (PINNs) have proven to be an efficient tool to represent problems for which measured data are available and for which the dynamics in the data are expected to follow some physical laws. In this paper, we…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-06-14 Fabian Heldmann , Sarah Berkhahn , Matthias Ehrhardt , Kathrin Klamroth

Physics-informed neural networks (PINNs) have emerged as a promising approach to solving partial differential equations (PDEs) using neural networks, particularly in data-scarce scenarios, due to their unsupervised training capability.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-25 Edgar Torres , Jonathan Schiefer , Mathias Niepert

We propose a novel approach that integrates machine learning into compartmental disease modeling to predict the progression of COVID-19. Our model is explainable by design as it explicitly shows how different compartments evolve and it uses…

Compartmental models are widely adopted to describe and predict the spreading of infectious diseases. The unknown parameters of such models need to be estimated from the data. Furthermore, when some of the model variables are not…

Physics and Society · Physics 2021-01-18 Luca Gallo , Mattia Frasca , Vito Latora , Giovanni Russo

Channel modeling is fundamental in advancing wireless systems and has thus attracted considerable research focus. Recent trends have seen a growing reliance on data-driven techniques to facilitate the modeling process and yield accurate…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2024-01-03 Ethan Zhu , Haijian Sun , Mingyue Ji

Physics-informed neural networks (PINNs) are an influential method of solving differential equations and estimating their parameters given data. However, since they make use of neural networks, they provide only a point estimate of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-05-15 Lena Podina , Mahdi Torabi Rad , Mohammad Kohandel

Forecasting temporal processes such as virus spreading in epidemics often requires more than just observed time-series data, especially at the beginning of a wave when data is limited. Traditional methods employ mechanistic models like the…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-11-12 Thang Nguyen , Dung Nguyen , Kha Pham , Truyen Tran

When investigating epidemic dynamics through differential models, the parameters needed to understand the phenomenon and to simulate forecast scenarios require a delicate calibration phase, often made even more challenging by the scarcity…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2023-09-11 Giulia Bertaglia , Chuan Lu , Lorenzo Pareschi , Xueyu Zhu

We develop a physics-informed neural network (PINN) framework for parameter estimation in fractional-order SEIRD epidemic models. By embedding the Caputo fractional derivative into the network residuals via the L1 discretization scheme, our…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-09-30 Achraf Zinihi

In this study, we considered the problem of estimating epidemiological parameters based on physics-informed neural networks (PINNs). In practice, not all trajectory data corresponding to the population estimated by epidemic models can be…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-07-18 Mizuka Komatsu

Reaction-diffusion epidemic models with vital dynamics are an important framework for describing the spatial and temporal spread of infectious diseases. In this work, we present a constraint-aware, physics-informed neural network (PINN)…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2026-05-20 Achraf Zinihi , Matthias Ehrhardt

This work introduces a physics-informed neural networks (PINNs)-based model predictive control (MPC) framework for susceptible-infected-recovered ($SIR$) spreading models. Existing studies in MPC design for epidemic control often assume…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-17 Aiping Zhong , Baike She , Philip E. Paré

The spread of many infectious diseases is modeled using variants of the SIR compartmental model, which is a coupled differential equation. The coefficients of the SIR model determine the spread trajectories of disease, on whose basis…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-03-28 Ritam Majumdar , Shirish Karande , Lovekesh Vig
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