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Dynamic model averaging (DMA) combines the forecasts of a large number of dynamic linear models (DLMs) to predict the future value of a time series. The performance of DMA critically depends on the appropriate choice of two forgetting…

This paper is about vector autoregressive-moving average (VARMA) models with time-dependent coefficients to represent non-stationary time series. Contrarily to other papers in the univariate case, the coefficients depend on time but not on…

In recent years, the monitoring of compositional data using control charts has been investigated in the Statistical Process Control field. In this study, we will design a Phase II Multivariate Exponentially Weighted Moving Average (MEWMA)…

In this work, we propose a novel framework for density forecast combination by constructing time-varying weights based on time series features, which is called Feature-based Bayesian Forecasting Model Averaging (FEBAMA). Our framework…

A novel first-order autoregressive moving average model for analyzing discrete-time series observed at irregularly spaced times is introduced. Under Gaussianity, it is established that the model is strictly stationary and ergodic. In the…

This paper considers joint beamformer design towards maximizing the mutual information in a coherent wireless sensor network with noisy observation and multiple antennae. Leveraging the weighted minimum mean square error and block…

Vector AutoRegressive Moving Average (VARMA) models form a powerful and general model class for analyzing dynamics among multiple time series. While VARMA models encompass the Vector AutoRegressive (VAR) models, their popularity in…

Bayesian model averaging has become a widely used approach to accounting for uncertainty about the structural form of the model generating the data. When data arrive sequentially and the generating model can change over time, Dynamic Model…

We investigate the problem of jointly testing two hypotheses and estimating a random parameter based on data that is observed sequentially by sensors in a distributed network. In particular, we assume the data to be drawn from a Gaussian…

Bayesian model averaging (BMA) is the state of the art approach for overcoming model uncertainty. Yet, especially on small data sets, the results yielded by BMA might be sensitive to the prior over the models. Credal Model Averaging (CMA)…

We introduce a new method for estimating the mean of an outcome variable within groups when researchers only observe the average of the outcome and group indicators across a set of aggregation units, such as geographical areas. Existing…

This paper proposes to use a rather new modelling approach in the realm of solar radiation forecasting. In this work, two forecasting models: Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) and Neural Network (NN) models are combined to form a model…

Graph State Space Models (SSMs) have recently been introduced to enhance Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) in modeling long-range interactions. Despite their success, existing methods either compromise on permutation equivariance or limit their…

We study the predictive power of autoregressive moving average models when forecasting demand in two shared computational networks, PlanetLab and Tycoon. Demand in these networks is very volatile, and predictive techniques to plan usage in…

In this paper, a new approach to bivariate modeling of autoregressive conditional duration (ACD) models is proposed. Specifically, we consider the joint modeling of durations and the number of transactions made during the spell. The…

Time series forecasting has attracted significant attention, leading to the de-velopment of a wide range of approaches, from traditional statistical meth-ods to advanced deep learning models. Among them, the Auto-Regressive Integrated…

Bidirectional associative memory (BAM) is a kind of an artificial neural network used to memorize and retrieve heterogeneous pattern pairs. Many efforts have been made to improve BAM from the the viewpoint of computer application, and few…

In statistics and machine learning, detecting dependencies in datasets is a central challenge. We propose a novel neural network model for supervised graph structure learning, i.e., the process of learning a mapping between observational…

We examine two different techniques for parameter averaging in GAN training. Moving Average (MA) computes the time-average of parameters, whereas Exponential Moving Average (EMA) computes an exponentially discounted sum. Whilst MA is known…

In this paper, we propose a novel and efficient two-stage variable selection approach for sparse GLARMA models, which are pervasive for modeling discrete-valued time series. Our approach consists in iteratively combining the estimation of…