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Climate change exacerbates extreme weather events like heavy rainfall and flooding. As these events cause severe socioeconomic damage, accurate high-resolution simulation of precipitation is imperative. However, existing Earth System Models…
Climate models are complicated software systems that approximate atmospheric and oceanic fluid mechanics at a coarse spatial resolution. Typical climate forecasts only explicitly resolve processes larger than 100 km and approximate any…
Quantifying the risk of global warming exceeding critical targets such as 2.0 K requires reliable projections of uncertainty as well as best estimates of Global Mean Surface Temperature (GMST). However, uncertainty bands on GMST projections…
We describe a simple method that utilises the standard idea of bias-variance trade-off to improve the expected accuracy of numerical model forecasts of future climate. The method can be thought of as an optimal multi-model combination…
Simulated tempering (ST) has attracted a great deal of attention in the last years, due to its capability to allow systems with complex dynamics to escape from regions separated by large entropic barriers. However its performance is…
This paper investigates the cross-correlations across multiple climate model errors. We build a Bayesian hierarchical model that accounts for the spatial dependence of individual models as well as cross-covariances across different climate…
Computational fluctuating hydrodynamics aims at understanding the impact of thermal fluctuations on fluid motions at small scales through numerical exploration. These fluctuations are modeled as stochastic flux terms and incorporated into…
We develop numerical methods for reaction-diffusion systems based on the equations of fluctuating hydrodynamics (FHD). While the FHD formulation is formally described by stochastic partial differential equations (SPDEs), it becomes similar…
High quality Quantitative Precipitation Estimation at high spatiotemporal resolution is crucial to many hydrologic/hydro-meteorological designs. Optimal Quantitative Precipitation Estimation of rainfall improves the accuracy of river and…
This study delves into the predictability of atmospheric blocking, zonal, and transition patterns utilizing a simplified coupled model. Initially, we comprehensively scrutinize the model's responses to environmental parameters like solar…
Convective processes are crucial in shaping exoplanetary atmospheres but are computationally expensive to simulate directly. A novel technique of simulating moist convection on tidally locked exoplanets is to use a global 3D model with a…
This is the second part of a series of two articles focused on the development and evaluation of the ARP-GEM1 global atmosphere model. The first paper introduced the model's new physics and speedup improvements. In this second part, we…
Although double-precision floating-point arithmetic currently dominates high-performance computing, there is increasing interest in smaller and simpler arithmetic types. The main reasons are potential improvements in energy efficiency and…
Observations indicate that the Arctic sea ice cover is rapidly retreating while the Antarctic sea ice cover is steadily expanding. State-of-the-art climate models, by contrast, typically simulate a moderate decrease in both the Arctic and…
It is often known, from modelling studies, that a certain mode of climate tipping (of the oceanic thermohaline circulation, for example) is governed by an underlying fold bifurcation. For such a case we present a scheme of analysis that…
A deterministic multiscale toy model is studied in which a chaotic fast subsystem triggers rare transitions between slow regimes, akin to weather or climate regimes. Using homogenization techniques, a reduced stochastic parametrization…
High-impact climate damages are often driven by compounding climate conditions. For example, elevated heat stress conditions can arise from a combination of high humidity and temperature. To explore future changes in compounding hazards…
Stochastic partial differential equations have been used in a variety of contexts to model the evolution of uncertain dynamical systems. In recent years, their applications to geophysical fluid dynamics has increased massively. For a…
Global Climate Model (GCM) tuning (calibration) is a tedious and time-consuming process, with high-dimensional input and output fields. Experts typically tune by iteratively running climate simulations with hand-picked values of tuning…
Human activities accelerate consumption of fossil fuels and produce greenhouse gases, resulting in urgent issues today: global warming and the climate change. These indirectly cause severe natural disasters, plenty of lives suffering and…