Related papers: On the Sequential Probability Ratio Test in Hidden…

In this work we introduce a method for estimating entropy rate and entropy production rate from finite symbolic time series. From the point of view of statistics, estimating entropy from a finite series can be interpreted as a problem of…

We introduce multiple hidden Markov models (MHMMs) where an observed multivariate categorical time series depends on an unobservable multivariate Mar- kov chain. MHMMs provide an elegant framework for specifying various independence…

This paper considers maximum likelihood (ML) estimation in a large class of models with hidden Markov regimes. We investigate consistency of the ML estimator and local asymptotic normality for the models under general conditions which allow…

In this paper we prove that the asymptotic rate of exponential loss of memory of a finite state hidden Markov model is bounded above by the difference of the first two Lyapunov exponents of a certain product of matrices. We also show that…

This work deals with the analysis of longitudinal ordinal responses. The novelty of the proposed approach is in modeling simultaneously the temporal dynamics of a latent trait of interest, measured via the observed ordinal responses, and…

This paper studies the robustness of quasi-maximum-likelihood (QML) estimation in hidden Markov models (HMMs) when the regime-switching structure is misspecified. Specifically, we examine the case where the true data-generating process…

Computing the probability of evidence even with known error bounds is NP-hard. In this paper we address this hard problem by settling on an easier problem. We propose an approximation which provides high confidence lower bounds on…

De-interleaving of the mixtures of Hidden Markov Processes (HMPs) generally depends on its representation model. Existing representation models consider Markov chain mixtures rather than hidden Markov, resulting in the lack of robustness to…

The entropy of a binary symmetric Hidden Markov Process is calculated as an expansion in the noise parameter epsilon. We map the problem onto a one-dimensional Ising model in a large field of random signs and calculate the expansion…

Among several tasks in Machine Learning, a specially important one is that of inferring the latent variables of a system and their causal relations with the observed behavior. Learning a Hidden Markov Model of given stochastic process is a…

We propose a unified framework that extends the inference methods for classical hidden Markov models to continuous settings, where both the hidden states and observations occur in continuous time. Two different settings are analyzed: hidden…

Control applications often feature tasks with similar, but not identical, dynamics. We introduce the Hidden Parameter Markov Decision Process (HiP-MDP), a framework that parametrizes a family of related dynamical systems with a…

Many natural and engineered systems can be modeled as discrete state Markov processes. Often, only a subset of states are directly observable. Inferring the conditional probability that a system occupies a particular hidden state, given the…

Standard practice in Hidden Markov Model (HMM) selection favors the candidate with the highest full-sequence likelihood, although this is equivalent to making a decision based on a single realization. We introduce a \emph{fragment-based}…

We propose sequential Monte Carlo based algorithms for maximum likelihood estimation of the static parameters in hidden Markov models with an intractable likelihood using ideas from approximate Bayesian computation. The static parameter…

A statistical test is presented to decide whether data are adequately described by probabilistic functions of finite state Markov chains (''hidden Markov models'') as applied in the analysis of ion channel data. Particularly, the test can…

Given a nonparametric Hidden Markov Model (HMM) with two states, the question of constructing efficient multiple testing procedures is considered, treating one of the states as an unknown null hypothesis. A procedure is introduced, based on…

The aim of this paper is to propose a methodology for testing general hypothesis in a Markovian setting with random sampling. A discrete Markov chain X is observed at random time intervals $\tau$ k, assumed to be iid with unknown…

This paper intends to apply the Hidden Markov Model into stock market and and make predictions. Moreover, four different methods of improvement, which are GMM-HMM, XGB-HMM, GMM-HMM+LSTM and XGB-HMM+LSTM, will be discussed later with the…

We propose a Bayesian hidden Markov model for analyzing time series and sequential data where a special structure of the transition probability matrix is embedded to model explicit-duration semi-Markovian dynamics. Our formulation allows…