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High-frequency market making is a liquidity-providing trading strategy that simultaneously generates many bids and asks for a security at ultra-low latency while maintaining a relatively neutral position. The strategy makes a profit from…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2021-10-01 Pankaj Kumar

Hawkes processes are a class of self-exciting point processes that are used to model complex phenomena. While most applications of Hawkes processes assume that event data occurs in continuous-time, the less-studied discrete-time version of…

Applications · Statistics 2023-06-01 Trinnhallen Brisley , Gordon Ross , Daniel Paulin , Jake Easto

Multivariate Hawkes Processes (MHPs) are an important class of temporal point processes that have enabled key advances in understanding and predicting social information systems. However, due to their complex modeling of temporal…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-03-02 Maximilian Nickel , Matthew Le

In this work we introduce two variants of multivariate Hawkes models with an explicit dependency on various queue sizes aimed at modeling the stochastic time evolution of a limit order book. The models we propose thus integrate the…

Trading and Market Microstructure · Quantitative Finance 2019-01-28 Peng Wu , Marcello Rambaldi , Jean-François Muzy , Emmanuel Bacry

The Hawkes process is a model for counting the number of arrivals to a system which exhibits the self-exciting property - that one arrival creates a heightened chance of further arrivals in the near future. The model, and its…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-05-20 Patrick J. Laub , Young Lee , Philip K. Pollett , Thomas Taimre

In this work, we propose to catch the complexity of the membrane potential's dynamic of a motoneuron between its spikes, taking into account the spikes from other neurons around. Our approach relies on two types of data: extracellular…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-08-03 Anna Bonnet , Charlotte Dion , François Gindraud , Sarah Lemler

We present a simple model of a stock market where a random communication structure between agents gives rise to a heavy tails in the distribution of stock price variations in the form of an exponentially truncated power-law, similar to…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2014-01-14 Rama Cont , Jean-Philippe Bouchaud

We show that multivariate Hawkes processes coupled with the nonparametric estimation procedure first proposed in Bacry and Muzy (2015) can be successfully used to study complex interactions between the time of arrival of orders and their…

Trading and Market Microstructure · Quantitative Finance 2018-07-10 Marcello Rambaldi , Emmanuel Bacry , Fabrizio Lillo

Modeling event dynamics is central to many disciplines. Patterns in observed event arrival times are commonly modeled using point processes. Such event arrival data often exhibits self-exciting, heterogeneous and sporadic trends, which is…

Applications · Statistics 2021-08-16 Jing Wu , Owen G. Ward , James Curley , Tian Zheng

We propose a microstructural model for the order flow in financial markets that distinguishes between {\it core orders} and {\it reaction flow}, both modeled as Hawkes processes. This model has a natural scaling limit that reconciles a…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2026-02-03 Johannes Muhle-Karbe , Youssef Ouazzani Chahdi , Mathieu Rosenbaum , Grégoire Szymanski

We investigate how the properties of inhomogeneous patterns of activity, appearing in many natural and social phenomena, depend on the temporal resolution used to define individual bursts of activity. To this end, we consider time series of…

Physics and Society · Physics 2021-03-03 Daniele Notarmuzi , Claudio Castellano , Alessandro Flammini , Dario Mazzilli , Filippo Radicchi

Multivariate Hawkes Processes (MHPs) are a class of point processes that can account for complex temporal dynamics among event sequences. In this work, we study the accuracy and computational efficiency of three classes of algorithms which,…

Computation · Statistics 2025-02-24 Alex Ziyu Jiang , Abel Rodríguez

We give a stochastic microscopic modelling of stock markets driven by continuous double auction. If we take into account the mimetic behavior of traders, when they place limit order, our virtual markets shows the power-law tail of the…

Computational Physics · Physics 2009-11-13 Jun-ichi Maskawa

We consider the stochastic volatility model obtained by adding a compound Hawkes process to the volatility of the well-known Heston model. A Hawkes process is a self-exciting counting process with many applications in mathematical finance,…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-10-28 David R. Baños , Salvador Ortiz-Latorre , Oriol Zamora Font

This study explores contagion in the Chinese stock market using Hawkes processes to analyze autocorrelation and cross-correlation in multivariate time series data. We examine whether market indices exhibit trending behavior and whether…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2025-12-10 Junwei Yang

This paper proposes a new approach for change point detection in multivariate Hawkes processes using Fr\'echet statistic of a network. The method splits the point process into overlapping windows, estimates kernel matrices in each window,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-01-23 Rui Luo , Vikram Krishnamurthy

We generalise the construction of multivariate Hawkes processes to a possibly infinite network of counting processes on a directed graph $\mathbb G$. The process is constructed as the solution to a system of Poisson driven stochastic…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-03-25 Sylvain Delattre , Nicolas Fournier , Marc Hoffmann

The event sequence of many diverse systems is represented as a sequence of discrete events in a continuous space. Examples of such an event sequence are earthquake aftershock events, financial transactions, e-commerce transactions, social…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-04-23 Jayesh Malaviya

We develop a model for point processes on the real line, where the intensity can be locally unbounded without inducing an explosion. In contrast to an orderly point process, for which the probability of observing more than one event over a…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-01-16 Kim Christensen , Alexei Kolokolov

We consider a tick-by-tick model of price formation, in which buy and sell orders are modeled as self-exciting point processes (Hawkes process), similar to the one in [Bacry, Delattre, Hoffmann, Muzy, Modelling microstructure noise with…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2026-03-27 Paolo Dai Pra , Paolo Pigato