Related papers: Long-term temporal evolution of extreme temperatur…

Understanding and mapping extreme heat is critical for risk management and public health planning, particularly in regions with complex terrain and heterogeneous climate. We present a case study of extreme heat in the Four Corners region of…

Marine heatwaves (MHWs), an extreme climate phenomenon, pose significant challenges to marine ecosystems and industries, with their frequency and intensity increasing due to climate change. This study introduces an integrated deep learning…

Stochastic reduced models are an important tool in climate systems whose many spatial and temporal scales cannot be fully discretized or underlying physics may not be fully accounted for. One form of reduced model, the linear inverse model…

We introduce a method for decomposition of trend, cycle and seasonal components in spatio-temporal models and apply it to investigate the existence of climate changes in temperature and rainfall series. The method incorporates critical…

The response of precipitation extremes to climate change is considered using results from theory, modeling, and observations, with a focus on the physical factors that control the response. Observations and simulations with climate models…

Earth's temperature variability can be partitioned into internal and externally-forced components. Yet, underlying mechanisms and their relative contributions remain insufficiently understood, especially on decadal to centennial timescales.…

Extreme sea level estimates are fundamental for mitigating against coastal flooding as they provide insight for defence engineering. As the global climate changes, rising sea levels combined with increases in storm intensity and frequency…

Extreme precipitation is projected to become more frequent and more intense due to climate change and associated thermodynamical effects, but the local response of atmospheric circulation under future climate scenarios remains uncertain due…

The extent to which the ongoing decline in Arctic sea ice affects mid-latitude climate has received great attention and polarised opinions. The basic issue is whether the inter-annual variability in Arctic sea ice is the cause of, or the…

Accurate estimation of the frequency and magnitude of successive extreme events in energy demand is critical for strategic resource planning. Traditional approaches based on extreme value theory (EVT) are typically limited to modelling…

Earth System Models (ESM) are important tools that allow us to understand and quantify the physical, chemical & biological mechanisms governing the rates of change of elements of the Earth System, comprising of the atmosphere, ocean, land,…

Given multi-model ensemble climate projections, the goal is to accurately and reliably predict future sea-level rise while lowering the uncertainty. This problem is important because sea-level rise affects millions of people in coastal…

Climate models play a crucial role in understanding the effect of environmental and man-made changes on climate to help mitigate climate risks and inform governmental decisions. Large global climate models such as the Community Earth System…

Using observational data and an elementary rigorous statistical fact it is easily shown that the distribution of Earth's climate is non-stationary. Examination of records of hundreds of local Industrial Era temperature histories in the…

Quantifying changes in the probability and magnitude of extreme flooding events is key to mitigating their impacts. While hydrodynamic data are inherently spatially dependent, traditional spatial models such as Gaussian processes are poorly…

Weather extremes produce major impacts on society and ecosystems and are likely to change in likelihood and magnitude with climate change. However, very low probability events are hard to characterize statistically using observations or…

We investigate extreme value theory for physical systems with a global conservation law which describe renewal processes, mass transport models and long-range interacting spin models. As shown previously, a special feature is that the…

Elucidating the statistical properties of extreme meteo-climatic events and capturing the physical processes responsible for their occurrence are key steps for improving our understanding of climate variability and climate change and for…

Extreme events provide relevant insights into the dynamics of climate and their understanding is key for mitigating the impact of climate variability and climate change. By applying large deviation theory to a state-of-the-art Earth system…

The last decade has seen numerous record-shattering heatwaves in all corners of the globe. In the aftermath of these devastating events, there is interest in identifying worst-case thresholds or upper bounds that quantify just how hot…