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Related papers: Long-term temporal evolution of extreme temperatur…

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We study temporally persistent and spatially extended extreme events of temperature anomalies, i.e. heat waves and cold spells, using large deviation theory. To this end, we consider a simplified yet Earth-like general circulation model of…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2019-05-22 Vera Melinda Galfi , Valerio Lucarini , Jeroen Wouters

Climate change is commonly associated with an overall increase in mean temperature in a defined past time period. Many studies consider temperature trends at the global scale, but the literature is lacking in in-depth analysis of the…

Applications · Statistics 2022-10-12 Qibin Duan , Clare A. McGrory , Glenn Brown , Kerrie Mengersen , You-Gan Wang

The financial losses from extreme weather events can have a disastrous effect, often costing billions of pounds. While changes in the disposition of individual events is of importance to both the insurance and re-insurance industries, these…

Applications · Statistics 2022-11-16 Toby P Jones

Understanding the dynamics of climate extreme is important in its prediction and modeling. In this study, linear trends in percentile, threshold, absolute, and duration based temperature and precipitation extremes indicator were obtained…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2019-09-09 Ibiyinka Fuwape , Sunday Oluyamo , Babatunde Rabiu , Samuel Ogunjo

Changes in extreme weather events are a potentially important aspect of anthropogenic climate change (ACC), yet, are difficult to attribute to ACC because the record length is often similar to, or shorter than, extreme-event return periods.…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-02-19 Peter Sherman , Peter Huybers , Eli Tziperman

Climate change has become a significant global concern due to its capacity to cause substantial disruption to daily life by increasing the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events. Given the rising trend of human interventions in…

Applications · Statistics 2026-04-28 Ritik Roshan Giri , Arnab Hazra

Adaptation-relevant predictions of climate change are often derived by combining climate model simulations in a multi-model ensemble. Model evaluation methods used in performance-based ensemble weighting schemes have limitations in the…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2023-04-19 Mala Virdee , Markus Kaiser , Emily Shuckburgh , Carl Henrik Ek , Ieva Kazlauskaite

Extreme weather is one of the main mechanisms through which climate change will directly impact human society. Coping with such change as a global community requires markedly improved understanding of how global warming drives extreme…

Computational Physics · Physics 2019-09-18 Adam Rupe , Karthik Kashinath , Nalini Kumar , Victor Lee , Prabhat , James P. Crutchfield

There is an ongoing debate in the literature about whether the present global warming is increasing local and global temperature variability. The central methodological issues of this debate relate to the proper treatment of normalised…

Fluid Dynamics · Physics 2017-02-24 Miklos Vincze , Ion Borcia , Uwe Harlander

We analyse extreme daily minimum temperatures in winter months over the island of Ireland from 1950-2022. We model the marginal distributions of extreme winter minima using a generalised Pareto distribution (GPD), capturing temporal and…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2026-01-07 Dáire Healy , Jonathan A. Tawn , Peter Thorne , Andrew Parnell

This study investigates the long-term effects of temperature variations on economic growth using a data-driven approach. Leveraging machine learning techniques, we analyze global land surface temperature data from Berkeley Earth and…

General Economics · Economics 2023-08-15 Eugene Kharitonov , Oksana Zakharchuk , Lin Mei

How regional heterogeneity in social and cultural processes drive--and respond to--climate dynamics is little studied. Here we present a coupled social-climate model stratified across five world regions and parameterized with geophysical,…

Physics and Society · Physics 2025-09-16 Amrita Punnavajhala , Timothy M. Lenton , Chris T. Bauch , Madhur Anand

There is continuing interest in the investigation of change in temperature over space and time. We offer a set of tools to illuminate such change temporally, at desired temporal resolution, and spatially, according to region of interest,…

One of the goals of climate science is to characterize the statistics of extreme and potentially dangerous events in the present and future climate. Extreme events like heat waves, droughts, or floods due to persisting rains are…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2020-01-08 Francesco Ragone , Freddy Bouchet

In this study we consider the problem of detecting and quantifying changes in the distribution of the annual maximum daily maximum temperature (TXx) in a large gridded data set of European daily temperature during the years 1950-2018.…

Applications · Statistics 2022-01-03 Graeme Auld , Gabriele Hegerl , Ioannis Papastathopoulos

Observations indicate that the Arctic sea ice cover is rapidly retreating while the Antarctic sea ice cover is steadily expanding. State-of-the-art climate models, by contrast, typically simulate a moderate decrease in both the Arctic and…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2017-10-11 Erica Rosenblum , Ian Eisenman

The coarse spatial resolution of gridded climate models, such as general circulation models, limits their direct use in projecting socially relevant variables like extreme precipitation. Most downscaling methods estimate the conditional…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2026-01-06 Louise Largeau , Tom Beucler , David Leutwyler , Gregoire Mariethoz , Valerie Chavez-Demoulin , Erwan Koch

Modeling extreme precipitation and temperature is vital for understanding the impacts of climate change, as hazards like intense rainfall and record-breaking temperatures can result in severe consequences, including floods, droughts, and…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-13 Remy MacDonald , Benjamin Seiyon Lee , John Foley , Justin Lee

Global warming leads to the increase in frequency and intensity of climate extremes that cause tremendous loss of lives and property. Accurate long-range climate prediction allows more time for preparation and disaster risk management for…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-12-13 Ken C. L. Wong , Hongzhi Wang , Etienne E. Vos , Bianca Zadrozny , Campbell D. Watson , Tanveer Syeda-Mahmood

Projections of future climate change rely heavily on climate models, and combining climate models through a multi-model ensemble is both more accurate than a single climate model and valuable for uncertainty quantification. However,…

Applications · Statistics 2020-02-27 Huang Huang , Dorit Hammerling , Bo Li , Richard Smith