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The off-policy paradigm casts recommendation as a counterfactual decision-making task, allowing practitioners to unbiasedly estimate online metrics using offline data. This leads to effective evaluation metrics, as well as learning…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-09-17 Olivier Jeunen , Aleksei Ustimenko

Model-based methods have recently shown great potential for off-policy evaluation (OPE); offline trajectories induced by behavioral policies are fitted to transitions of Markov decision processes (MDPs), which are used to rollout simulated…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-02-06 Qitong Gao , Ge Gao , Min Chi , Miroslav Pajic

This work develops novel strategies for optimal planning with semantic observations using continuous state partially observable markov decision processes (CPOMDPs). Two major innovations are presented in relation to Gaussian mixture (GM)…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2019-08-09 Luke Burks , Ian Loefgren , Nisar Ahmed

We investigate model-based reinforcement learning in contextual Markov decision processes (C-MDPs) in which the context is unobserved and induces confounding in the offline dataset. In such settings, conventional model-learning methods are…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-09 Nishanth Venkatesh , Andreas A. Malikopoulos

Off-Policy Evaluation (OPE) serves as one of the cornerstones in Reinforcement Learning (RL). Fitted Q Evaluation (FQE) with various function approximators, especially deep neural networks, has gained practical success. While statistical…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-02-11 Ruiqi Zhang , Xuezhou Zhang , Chengzhuo Ni , Mengdi Wang

We study an approximation method for partially observed Markov decision processes (POMDPs) with continuous spaces. Belief MDP reduction, which has been the standard approach to study POMDPs requires rigorous approximation methods for…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-01-20 Ali Devran Kara , Erhan Bayraktar , Serdar Yuksel

We consider the problem of quantifying uncertainty over expected cumulative rewards in model-based reinforcement learning. In particular, we focus on characterizing the variance over values induced by a distribution over Markov decision…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-09-18 Carlos E. Luis , Alessandro G. Bottero , Julia Vinogradska , Felix Berkenkamp , Jan Peters

The value function of a POMDP exhibits the piecewise-linear-convex (PWLC) property and can be represented as a finite set of hyperplanes, known as $\alpha$-vectors. Most state-of-the-art POMDP solvers (offline planners) follow the…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-03-17 Yang You , Ufuk Çakır , Alex Schutz , Nick Hawes

Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes (POMDPs) are systems in which one agent interacts with a stochastic environment, and receives only partial information about the current state. In a multi-environment POMDP (MEPOMDP), the…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-05-11 Léonard Brice , Filip Cano , Krishnendu Chatterjee , Thomas A. Henzinger , Stefanie Muroya

Partially Observable Markov Decision Process (POMDP) provides a principled and generic framework to model real world sequential decision making processes but yet remains unsolved, especially for high dimensional continuous space and unknown…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-05-24 Xiaoyu Chen , Yao Mu , Ping Luo , Shengbo Li , Jianyu Chen

We consider the estimation of the policy gradient in partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDP) with a special class of structured policies that are finite-state controllers. We show that the gradient estimation can be done in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2012-07-09 Huizhen Yu

Off-policy evaluation (OPE) constructs confidence intervals for the value of a target policy using data generated under a different behavior policy. Most existing inference methods focus on fixed target policies and may fail when the target…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-01-21 Haoyu Wei

We introduce a class of partially observed Markov decision processes (POMDPs) with costs that can depend on both the value and (future) uncertainty associated with the initial state. These Initial-State Cost POMDPs (ISC-POMDPs) enable the…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-03-10 Timothy L. Molloy

Partially Observable Markov Decision Process (POMDP) is a mathematical framework for modeling decision-making under uncertainty, where the agent's observations are incomplete and the underlying system dynamics are probabilistic. Solving the…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2024-12-20 Yide Yu , Yue Liu , Xiaochen Yuan , Dennis Wong , Huijie Li , Yan Ma

This paper analyzes finite state Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) with uncertain parameters in compact sets and re-examines results from robust MDP via set-based fixed point theory. To this end, we generalize the Bellman and policy…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-08-09 Sarah H. Q. Li , Assalé Adjé , Pierre-Loïc Garoche , Behçet Açıkmeşe

For an autonomous agent, executing a poor policy may be costly or even dangerous. For such agents, it is desirable to determine confidence interval lower bounds on the performance of any given policy without executing said policy. Current…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2018-09-25 Josiah P. Hanna , Peter Stone , Scott Niekum

The agent learns to organize decision behavior to achieve a behavioral goal, such as reward maximization, and reinforcement learning is often used for this optimization. Learning an optimal behavioral strategy is difficult under the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-05-09 Kazuki Takahashi , Tomoki Fukai , Yutaka Sakai , Takashi Takekawa

When observed decisions depend only on observed features, off-policy policy evaluation (OPE) methods for sequential decision making problems can estimate the performance of evaluation policies before deploying them. This assumption is…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-03-13 Hongseok Namkoong , Ramtin Keramati , Steve Yadlowsky , Emma Brunskill

Off-Policy evaluation (OPE) is concerned with evaluating a new target policy using offline data generated by a potentially different behavior policy. It is critical in a number of sequential decision making problems ranging from healthcare…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-01-02 Yang Xu , Chengchun Shi , Shikai Luo , Lan Wang , Rui Song

Off-Policy Evaluation (OPE) aims to estimate the value of a target policy using offline data collected from potentially different policies. In real-world applications, however, logged data often suffers from missingness. While OPE has been…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-07-10 Han Wang , Yang Xu , Wenbin Lu , Rui Song
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