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Predictive Business Process Monitoring is becoming an essential aid for organizations, providing online operational support of their processes. This paper tackles the fundamental problem of equipping predictive business process monitoring…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-09-18 Riccardo Galanti , Bernat Coma-Puig , Massimiliano de Leoni , Josep Carmona , Nicolò Navarin

Modern data analytics underpinned by machine learning techniques has become a key enabler to the automation of data-led decision making. As an important branch of state-of-the-art data analytics, business process predictions are also faced…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2021-07-22 Chun Ouyang , Renuka Sindhgatta , Catarina Moreira

Researchers in explainable artificial intelligence have developed numerous methods for helping users understand the predictions of complex supervised learning models. By contrast, explaining the $\textit{uncertainty}$ of model outputs has…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-11-01 David S. Watson , Joshua O'Hara , Niek Tax , Richard Mudd , Ido Guy

Modern predictive analytics underpinned by machine learning techniques has become a key enabler to the automation of data-driven decision making. In the context of business process management, predictive analytics has been applied to making…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-06-09 Renuka Sindhgatta , Chun Ouyang , Catarina Moreira

Predictive process analytics focuses on predicting the future states of running instances of a business process. While advanced machine learning techniques have been used to increase accuracy of predictions, the resulting predictive models…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2020-12-09 Mythreyi Velmurugan , Chun Ouyang , Catarina Moreira , Renuka Sindhgatta

A number of techniques have been proposed to explain a machine learning model's prediction by attributing it to the corresponding input features. Popular among these are techniques that apply the Shapley value method from cooperative game…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-06-29 Luke Merrick , Ankur Taly

Workflow mining discovers hierarchical process trees from event logs, but it remains unclear why such models satisfy or violate logical properties, or how individual elements contribute to overall behavior. We propose to translate mined…

Software Engineering · Computer Science 2025-12-11 Radoslaw Klimek , Jakub Blazowski

Explainability is motivated by the lack of transparency of black-box Machine Learning approaches, which do not foster trust and acceptance of Machine Learning algorithms. This also happens in the Predictive Process Monitoring field, where…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-07-25 Williams Rizzi , Marco Comuzzi , Chiara Di Francescomarino , Chiara Ghidini , Suhwan Lee , Fabrizio Maria Maggi , Alexander Nolte

Although a recent shift has been made in the field of predictive process monitoring to use models from the explainable artificial intelligence field, the evaluation still occurs mainly through performance-based metrics, thus not accounting…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-08-01 Alexander Stevens , Johannes De Smedt

Several decision points exist in business processes (e.g., whether a purchase order needs a manager's approval or not), and different decisions are made for different process instances based on their characteristics (e.g., a purchase order…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2022-11-01 Gyunam Park , Aaron Küsters , Mara Tews , Cameron Pitsch , Jonathan Schneider , Wil M. P. van der Aalst

While preference modelling is becoming one of the pillars of machine learning, the problem of preference explanation remains challenging and underexplored. In this paper, we propose \textsc{Pref-SHAP}, a Shapley value-based model…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-11-09 Robert Hu , Siu Lun Chau , Jaime Ferrando Huertas , Dino Sejdinovic

We present a novel approach for explaining Gaussian processes (GPs) that can utilize the full analytical covariance structure present in GPs. Our method is based on the popular solution concept of Shapley values extended to stochastic…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-05-25 Siu Lun Chau , Krikamol Muandet , Dino Sejdinovic

The presence of artificial intelligence (AI) in our society is increasing, which brings with it the need to understand the behavior of AI mechanisms, including machine learning predictive algorithms fed with tabular data, text or images,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-06-06 Pedro Delicado , Cristian Pachón-García

As the decisions made or influenced by machine learning models increasingly impact our lives, it is crucial to detect, understand, and mitigate unfairness. But even simply determining what "unfairness" should mean in a given context is…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-10-16 Tom Begley , Tobias Schwedes , Christopher Frye , Ilya Feige

The overarching goal of Explainable AI is to develop systems that not only exhibit intelligent behaviours, but also are able to explain their rationale and reveal insights. In explainable machine learning, methods that produce a high level…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2020-05-06 Xiuyi Fan , Siyuan Liu , Thomas C. Henderson

This study proposes an innovative explainable predictive quality analytics solution to facilitate data-driven decision-making for process planning in manufacturing by combining process mining, machine learning, and explainable artificial…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-06-11 Nijat Mehdiyev , Peter Fettke

Shapley values originated in cooperative game theory but are extensively used today as a model-agnostic explanation framework to explain predictions made by complex machine learning models in the industry and academia. There are several…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-04-15 Lars Henry Berge Olsen , Ingrid Kristine Glad , Martin Jullum , Kjersti Aas

Explaining the predictions of opaque machine learning algorithms is an important and challenging task, especially as complex models are increasingly used to assist in high-stakes decisions such as those arising in healthcare and finance.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-06-29 David S. Watson

Software analytics has been the subject of considerable recent attention but is yet to receive significant industry traction. One of the key reasons is that software practitioners are reluctant to trust predictions produced by the analytics…

Software Engineering · Computer Science 2018-02-05 Hoa Khanh Dam , Truyen Tran , Aditya Ghose

Predictive business process monitoring increasingly leverages sophisticated prediction models. Although sophisticated models achieve consistently higher prediction accuracy than simple models, one major drawback is their lack of…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2022-02-25 Tsung-Hao Huang , Andreas Metzger , Klaus Pohl
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