Related papers: Extending the Range of Robust PCE Inflation Measur…
We point out that the inclusion of a string component contributing around 5% to the CMB power spectrum amplitude on large scales can increase the preferred value of the spectral index n_s of density fluctuations measured by CMB experiments.…
We review the constraints that the recently released Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) Planck data put on inflation and we argue that single field slow-roll inflationary scenarios (with minimal kinetic term) are favored. Then, within this…
We propose methods for constructing regularized mixtures of density forecasts. We explore a variety of objectives and regularization penalties, and we use them in a substantive exploration of Eurozone inflation and real interest rate…
Generic features of models of inflation obtained from string compactifications are the correlations between the model parameters and the postinflationary evolution of the universe. Thus, the postinflationary evolution depends on the…
Reliable confidence measures of metrics derived from medical imaging reconstruction pipelines would improve the standard of decision-making in many clinical workflows. Conformal Prediction (CP) provides a robust framework for producing…
Inflation elegantly provides initial conditions for the standard model of cosmology, while solving the horizon, flatness, and magnetic monopole problems. Inflationary models make predictions for the tensor-to-scalar ratio $r$ and the…
In this paper, we forecast euro area inflation and its main components using an econometric model which exploits a massive number of time series on survey expectations for the European Commission's Business and Consumer Survey. To make…
If the inflaton sector is described by softly broken supersymmetry, and the inflaton has unsuppressed couplings, the inflaton mass will run strongly with scale. Four types of model are possible. The prediction for the spectral index…
We analyze the weak (2 sigma) evidence for a running spectral index seen in the three-year WMAP dataset and its implications for single field, slow roll inflation. We assume that the running is comparable to the central value found from the…
The newly released Planck CMB data place tight constraints on slow-roll inflationary models. Some of commonly discussed inflationary potentials are disfavored due mainly to the large tensor-to-scalar ratio. In this paper we show that these…
Slow-roll inflation generically makes several predictions: a flat Universe, primordial adiabatic density perturbations, and a stochastic gravity-wave background. Each inflation model will further predict specific relations between the…
Cosmological inflation predicts that the scalar spectral index "runs" with scale. Constraints on the values of the spectral runnings, $\alpha_s\equiv \textrm{d} n_s/\textrm{d}\ln k$ and $\beta_s\equiv \textrm{d}\alpha_s/\textrm{d}\ln k$,…
Bayesian model comparison penalizes models with more free parameters that are allowed to vary over a wide range, and thus offers the most robust method to decide whether some given data require new parameters. In this paper, we ask a simple…
We discuss ability of the harmonic pattern of peaks in the CMB angular power spectrum to test inflation. By studying robust features of alternate models, which must all be isocurvature in nature, we reveal signatures unique to inflation.…
Inflation scenarios kinetically coupled with the Einstein tensor have been widely studied. They can be consistent with current observational data. Future experiments on the measurement on CMB distortions will potentially extend information…
We discuss a concept denoted as Conformal Prediction (CP) in this paper. While initially stemming from the world of machine learning, it was never applied or analyzed in the context of short-term electricity price forecasting. Therefore, we…
The curvaton scenario predicts an almost scale-invariant spectrum of perturbations in most inflation models. We consider the possibility that renormalisable phi^4 or Planck scale-suppressed non-renormalisable curvaton potential terms may…
We use cosmic microwave background (CMB) data from the 9-year WMAP release to derive constraints on monodromy inflation, which is characterized by a linear inflaton potential with a periodic modulation. We identify two possible periodic…
The measurement of B-mode polarization of the cosmic microwave background at large angular scales by the BICEP experiment suggests a stochastic gravitational wave background from early-universe inflation with a surprisingly large amplitude.…
Standard CMB analysis assumes a direct deterministic mapping between the multipole probed by the CMB $\ell$ and the primordial wavenumber $k$. Since the recombination era has a finite duration, this mapping is probabilistic by construction.…