Related papers: Sparse Bayesian State-Space and Time-Varying Param…

Shrinkage for time-varying parameter (TVP) models is investigated within a Bayesian framework, with the aim to automatically reduce time-varying parameters to static ones, if the model is overfitting. This is achieved through placing the…

Time-varying parameter (TVP) regressions commonly assume that time-variation in the coefficients is determined by a simple stochastic process such as a random walk. While such models are capable of capturing a wide range of dynamic…

Time-varying parameter (TVP) models have the potential to be over-parameterized, particularly when the number of variables in the model is large. Global-local priors are increasingly used to induce shrinkage in such models. But the…

Time-varying parameter (TVP) models are very flexible in capturing gradual changes in the effect of a predictor on the outcome variable. However, in particular when the number of predictors is large, there is a known risk of overfitting and…

In the present work, we consider variable selection and shrinkage for the Gaussian dynamic linear regression within a Bayesian framework. In particular, we propose a novel method that allows for time-varying sparsity, based on an extension…

This paper proposes a variational Bayes algorithm for computationally efficient posterior and predictive inference in time-varying parameter (TVP) models. Within this context we specify a new dynamic variable/model selection strategy for…

This paper introduces a novel theory-coherent shrinkage prior for Time-Varying Parameter VARs (TVP-VARs). The prior centers the time-varying parameters on a path implied a priori by an underlying economic theory, chosen to describe the…

Time-varying parameter (TVP) regression models can involve a huge number of coefficients. Careful prior elicitation is required to yield sensible posterior and predictive inferences. In addition, the computational demands of Markov Chain…

In this paper, we write the time-varying parameter (TVP) regression model involving K explanatory variables and T observations as a constant coefficient regression model with KT explanatory variables. In contrast with much of the existing…

Time-varying parameter (TVP) models are widely used in time series analysis to flexibly deal with processes which gradually change over time. However, the risk of overfitting in TVP models is well known. This issue can be dealt with using…

Successful forecasting models strike a balance between parsimony and flexibility. This is often achieved by employing suitable shrinkage priors that penalize model complexity but also reward model fit. In this note, we modify the stochastic…

There has been an intense development on the estimation of a sparse regression coefficient vector in statistics, machine learning and related fields. In this paper, we focus on the Bayesian approach to this problem, where sparsity is…

Time-varying parameter VARs with stochastic volatility are routinely used for structural analysis and forecasting in settings involving a few endogenous variables. Applying these models to high-dimensional datasets has proved to be…

We develop a variational Bayes approach for dynamic variable selection in high-dimensional regression models with time-varying parameters and predictors that exhibit a predefined group structure. Through comprehensive simulation studies, we…

In all areas of human knowledge, datasets are increasing in both size and complexity, creating the need for richer statistical models. This trend is also true for economic data, where high-dimensional and nonlinear/nonparametric inference…

In this paper we propose a time-varying parameter (TVP) vector error correction model (VECM) with heteroskedastic disturbances. We propose tools to carry out dynamic model specification in an automatic fashion. This involves using…

We introduce a Bayesian framework for mixed-type multivariate regression using continuous shrinkage priors. Our framework enables joint analysis of mixed continuous and discrete outcomes and facilitates variable selection from the $p$…

Time-varying parameters (TVPs) models are frequently used in economics to capture structural change. I highlight a rather underutilized fact -- that these are actually ridge regressions. Instantly, this makes computations, tuning, and…

Time-varying parameter (TVP) models often assume that the TVPs evolve according to a random walk. This assumption, however, might be questionable since it implies that coefficients change smoothly and in an unbounded manner. In this paper,…

Crossing of fitted conditional quantiles is a prevalent problem for quantile regression models. We propose a new Bayesian modelling framework that penalises multiple quantile regression functions toward the desired non-crossing space. We…