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We study wide Bayesian neural networks focusing on the rare but statistically dominant fluctuations that govern posterior concentration, beyond Gaussian-process limits. Large-deviation theory provides explicit variational objectives-rate…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-02-27 Katerina Papagiannouli , Dario Trevisan , Giuseppe Pio Zitto

We analyse large deviations of time-averaged quantities in stochastic processes with long-range memory, where the dynamics at time t depends itself on the value q_t of the time-averaged quantity. First we consider the elephant random walk…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2020-08-05 Robert L. Jack , Rosemary J. Harris

Stochastic gradient descent (SGD) has been widely used in machine learning due to its computational efficiency and favorable generalization properties. Recently, it has been empirically demonstrated that the gradient noise in several deep…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-06-24 Thanh Huy Nguyen , Umut Şimşekli , Mert Gürbüzbalaban , Gaël Richard

We investigate large deviations for the empirical measure of the forward and backward recurrence time processes associated with a classical renewal process with arbitrary waiting-time distribution. The Donsker-Varadhan theory cannot be…

Probability · Mathematics 2010-09-22 Raphael Lefevere , Mauro Mariani , Lorenzo Zambotti

When modelling time series, it is common to decompose observed variation into a "signal" process, the process of interest, and "noise", representing nuisance factors that obfuscate the signal. To separate signal from noise, assumptions must…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-11-11 Richard Creswell , Ben Lambert , Chon Lok Lei , Martin Robinson , David Gavaghan

In this paper, we present large deviation theory that characterizes the exponential estimate for rare events of stochastic dynamical systems in the limit of weak noise. We aim to consider next-to-leading-order approximation for more…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-06-21 Yang Li , Shenglan Yuan , Linghongzhi Lu , Xianbin Liu

We discuss the Donsker-Varadhan theory of large deviations in the framework of Hamiltonian systems thermostated by a Gaussian stochastic coupling. We derive a general formula for the Donsker-Varadhan large deviation functional for dynamics…

Mathematical Physics · Physics 2009-11-13 T. Bodineau , R. Lefevere

We study the two-dimensional incompressible Navier-Stokes equation on the torus, driven by Gaussian noise that is white in time and colored in space. We consider the case where the magnitude of the random forcing $\sqrt{\e}$ and its…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-01-01 Sandra Cerrai , Nicholas Paskal

We focus on variational inference in dynamical systems where the discrete time transition function (or evolution rule) is modelled by a Gaussian process. The dominant approach so far has been to use a factorised posterior distribution,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-12-17 Alessandro Davide Ialongo , Mark van der Wilk , James Hensman , Carl Edward Rasmussen

We consider a family of continuous processes $\{X^\varepsilon\}_{\varepsilon>0}$ which are measurable with respect to a white noise measure, take values in the space of continuous functions $C([0,1]^d:\mathbb{R})$, and have the Wiener chaos…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-02-01 Alexandre Pannier

In a series of two papers, we investigate the large deviations and asymptotic behavior of stochastic models of brain neural networks with random interaction coefficients. In this first paper, we take into account the spatial structure of…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-01-05 Tanguy Cabana , Jonathan Touboul

We analyze the Gaussian approximation as a method to obtain the first and second moments of a stochastic process described by a master equation. We justify the use of this approximation with ideas coming from van Kampen's expansion approach…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2015-05-18 Luis F. Lafuerza , Raul Toral

We prove large deviations principles in large time, for the Brownian occupation time in random scenery. The random scenery is constant on unit cubes, and consist of i.i.d. bounded variables, independent of the Brownian motion. This model is…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 A. Asselah , F. Castell

We formulate the large deviations for a class of two scale chemical kinetic processes motivated from biological applications. The result is successfully applied to treat a genetic switching model with positive feedbacks. The corresponding…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-04-05 Tiejun Li , Feng Lin

We introduce a new interpretation of sparse variational approximations for Gaussian processes using inducing points, which can lead to more scalable algorithms than previous methods. It is based on decomposing a Gaussian process as a sum of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-02-27 Jiaxin Shi , Michalis K. Titsias , Andriy Mnih

We prove the large deviations principle (LDP) for the law of the solutions to a class of semilinear stochastic partial differential equations driven by multiplicative noise. Our proof is based on the weak convergence approach and…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-07-05 Mohammud Foondun , Leila Setayeshgar

We consider a general system of n noninteracting identical particles which evolve under a given dynamical law and whose initial microstates are a priori independent. The time evolution of the n-particle average of a bounded function on the…

chao-dyn · Physics 2021-04-28 Brian R. La Cour , William C. Schieve

In this paper, we consider asymptotic behaviors of multiscale multivalued stochastic systems with small noises. First of all, for general, fully coupled systems for multivalued stochastic differential equations of slow and fast motions with…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-09-30 Huijie Qiao

Quadratic variations of Gaussian processes play important role in both stochastic analysis and in applications such as estimation of model parameters, and for this reason the topic has been extensively studied in the literature. In this…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-02-06 Lauri Viitasaari

The growing field of large-scale time domain astronomy requires methods for probabilistic data analysis that are computationally tractable, even with large datasets. Gaussian Processes are a popular class of models used for this purpose…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2017-11-15 Daniel Foreman-Mackey , Eric Agol , Sivaram Ambikasaran , Ruth Angus