Related papers: Estimating absorption time distributions of genera…
We study a one-dimensional Markov modulated random walk with jumps. It is assumed that amplitudes of jumps as well as a chosen velocity regime are random and depend on a time spent by the process at a previous state of the underlying Markov…
Markov jump processes (MJPs) are continuous-time stochastic processes widely used in a variety of applied disciplines. Inference for MJPs typically proceeds via Markov chain Monte Carlo, the state-of-the-art being a uniformization-based…
In this paper we consider the problem of parameter inference for Markov jump process (MJP) representations of stochastic kinetic models. Since transition probabilities are intractable for most processes of interest yet forward simulation is…
This work aims at providing a new model for time series classification based on learning from just one example. We assume that time series can be well characterized as a parametric random process, a sort of Hidden semi-Markov Model…
We consider the task of generating draws from a Markov jump process (MJP) between two time-points at which the process is known. Resulting draws are typically termed bridges and the generation of such bridges plays a key role in…
Based on information theory, we present a method to determine an optimal Markov approximation for modelling and prediction from time series data. The method finds a balance between minimal modelling errors by taking as much as possible…
Asymptotic properties of Markov Processes, such as steady state probabilities or hazard rate for absorbing states can be efficiently calculated by means of linear algebra even for large-scale problems. This paper discusses the methods for…
In this paper, we study a notion of local stationarity for discrete time Markov chains which is useful for applications in statistics. In the spirit of some locally stationary processes introduced in the literature, we consider triangular…
In this paper we consider large state space continuous time Markov chains (MCs) arising in the field of systems biology. For density dependent families of MCs that represent the interaction of large groups of identical objects, Kurtz has…
A phase-type distribution is the distribution of the time until absorption in a finite state-space time-homogeneous Markov jump process, with one absorbing state and the rest being transient. These distributions are mathematically tractable…
Optimal designs minimize the number of experimental runs (samples) needed to accurately estimate model parameters, resulting in algorithms that, for instance, efficiently minimize parameter estimate variance. Governed by knowledge of past…
We propose moment-based variational inference as a flexible framework for approximate smoothing of latent Markov jump processes. The main ingredient of our approach is to partition the set of all transitions of the latent process into…
Motivated by applications of distributed linear estimation, distributed control and distributed optimization, we consider the question of designing linear iterative algorithms for computing the average of numbers in a network. Specifically,…
We consider additive functionals of Markov processes in continuous time with general (metric) state spaces. We derive concentration bounds for their exponential moments and moments of finite order. Applications include diffusions,…
In this paper, we are concerned with centered Markov Additive Processes $\{(X_t,Y_t)\}_{t\in\T}$ where the driving Markov process $\{X_t\}_{t\in\T}$ has a finite state space. Under suitable conditions, we provide a local limit theorem for…
This paper considers the problem of randomized influence maximization over a Markovian graph process: given a fixed set of nodes whose connectivity graph is evolving as a Markov chain, estimate the probability distribution (over this fixed…
Stochastic kinetic models (SKMs) are increasingly used to account for the inherent stochasticity exhibited by interacting populations of species in areas such as epidemiology, population ecology and systems biology. Species numbers are…
Motivated by reduction of computational complexity, this work develops sign-error adaptive filtering algorithms for estimating time-varying system parameters. Different from the previous work on sign-error algorithms, the parameters are…
We study time-changed Markov processes to speed up the convergence of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms. The time-changed process is defined by adjusting the speed of time of a base process via a user-chosen, state-dependent…
In this paper, we provide strong $L_2$-rates of approximation of the integral-type functionals of Markov processes by integral sums. We improve the method developed in [2]. Under assumptions on the process formulated only in terms of its…