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Recently, interest has grown in the use of proxy variables of unobserved confounding for inferring the causal effect in the presence of unmeasured confounders from observational data. One difficulty inhibiting the practical use is finding…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-05-28 Feng Xie , Zhengming Chen , Shanshan Luo , Wang Miao , Ruichu Cai , Zhi Geng

In many social, behavioral, and biomedical sciences, treatment effect estimation is a crucial step in understanding the impact of an intervention, policy, or treatment. In recent years, an increasing emphasis has been placed on…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-10-10 Xinhai Zhang , Xingye Qiao

Accurately predicting conditional average treatment effects (CATEs) is crucial in personalized medicine and digital platform analytics. Since the treatments of interest often cannot be directly randomized, observational data is leveraged to…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-11-05 Miruna Oprescu , Nathan Kallus

Inferring causal effects of continuous-valued treatments from observational data is a crucial task promising to better inform policy- and decision-makers. A critical assumption needed to identify these effects is that all confounding…

Marginal structural models are a popular tool for investigating the effects of time-varying treatments, but they require an assumption of no unobserved confounders between the treatment and outcome. With observational data, this assumption…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-06-10 Matthew Blackwell , Soichiro Yamauchi

The fundamental problem in treatment effect estimation from observational data is confounder identification and balancing. Most of the previous methods realized confounder balancing by treating all observed pre-treatment variables as…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-10-13 Anpeng Wu , Kun Kuang , Junkun Yuan , Bo Li , Runze Wu , Qiang Zhu , Yueting Zhuang , Fei Wu

In an era where diverse and complex data are increasingly accessible, the precise prediction of individual treatment effects (ITE) becomes crucial across fields such as healthcare, economics, and public policy. Current state-of-the-art…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-01-28 Baozhen Wang , Xingye Qiao

Staggered treatment adoption arises in the evaluation of policy impact and implementation in many settings, including both randomized stepped-wedge trials and non-randomized quasi-experiments with panel data. In both settings, getting an…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-10-14 Lee Kennedy-Shaffer

Unmeasured confounding is a key threat to reliable causal inference based on observational studies. Motivated from two powerful natural experiment devices, the instrumental variables and difference-in-differences, we propose a new method…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-11-09 Ting Ye , Ashkan Ertefaie , James Flory , Sean Hennessy , Dylan S. Small

The study of causal effects in the presence of unmeasured spatially varying confounders has garnered increasing attention. However, a general framework for identifiability, which is critical for reliable causal inference from observational…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-27 Tommy Tang , Xinran Li , Bo Li

Data-driven individualized decision making has recently received increasing research interests. Most existing methods rely on the assumption of no unmeasured confounding, which unfortunately cannot be ensured in practice especially in…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-12-26 Zhengling Qi , Rui Miao , Xiaoke Zhang

We propose a model-free framework for sensitivity analysis of individual treatment effects (ITEs), building upon ideas from conformal inference. For any unit, our procedure reports the $\Gamma$-value, a number which quantifies the minimum…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-04-26 Ying Jin , Zhimei Ren , Emmanuel J. Candès

Counterfactual prediction is about predicting outcome of the unobserved situation from the data. For example, given patient is on drug A, what would be the outcome if she switch to drug B. Most of existing works focus on modeling…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-10-29 Yanbo Xu , Cao Xiao , Jimeng Sun

The variational autoencoder (VAE) is a popular deep latent variable model used to analyse high-dimensional datasets by learning a low-dimensional latent representation of the data. It simultaneously learns a generative model and an…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-11-21 Mine Öğretir , Siddharth Ramchandran , Dimitrios Papatheodorou , Harri Lähdesmäki

Estimating causal effects in a target population with unmeasured confounders is challenging, especially when instrumental variables (IVs) are unavailable. However, IVs from auxiliary populations with similar problems can help infer causal…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-06 Wei Li , Jiapeng Liu , Peng Ding , Zhi Geng

Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) are the accepted standard for treatment effect estimation but they can be infeasible due to ethical reasons and prohibitive costs. Single-arm trials, where all patients belong to the treatment group, can…

As an important problem in causal inference, we discuss the identification and estimation of treatment effects (TEs) under limited overlap; that is, when subjects with certain features belong to a single treatment group. We use a latent…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-04-22 Pengzhou Wu , Kenji Fukumizu

I develop a new identification strategy for treatment effects when noisy measurements of unobserved confounding factors are available. I use proxy variables to construct a random variable conditional on which treatment variables become…

Econometrics · Economics 2022-09-30 Kenichi Nagasawa

Routinely collected data from electronic health records (EHR) provide opportunities to study effects of longitudinal treatment strategies in real-world clinical settings. A challenge presented by EHR data is that frequency of covariate…

Applications · Statistics 2026-04-14 Leah Pirondini , Karla Diaz-Ordaz , Edward Palmer , Ruth H. Keogh

Estimating how a treatment affects units individually, known as heterogeneous treatment effect (HTE) estimation, is an essential part of decision-making and policy implementation. The accumulation of large amounts of data in many domains,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-06-28 Christopher Tran , Elena Zheleva