Related papers: Time-Varying Poisson Autoregression
We develop a non-parametric multivariate time series model that remains agnostic on the precise relationship between a (possibly) large set of macroeconomic time series and their lagged values. The main building block of our model is a…
This paper introduces a novel theory-coherent shrinkage prior for Time-Varying Parameter VARs (TVP-VARs). The prior centers the time-varying parameters on a path implied a priori by an underlying economic theory, chosen to describe the…
We consider an integer-valued time series $Y=(Y_t)_{t\in\Z}$ where the models after a time $k^*$ is Poisson autoregressive with the conditional mean that depends on a parameter $\theta^*\in\Theta\subset\R^d$. The structure of the process…
Signals coming from multivariate higher order conditional moments as well as the information contained in exogenous covariates, can be effectively exploited by rational investors to allocate their wealth among different risky investment…
We study the problem of matching correlated VAR time series databases, where a multivariate time series is observed along with a perturbed and permuted version, and the goal is to recover the unknown matching between them. To model this, we…
Targeted maximum likelihood estimation is a general methodology combining flexible ensemble learning and semiparametric efficiency theory in a two-step procedure for estimation of causal parameters. Proposed targeted maximum likelihood…
In this work we propose a new class of long-memory models with time-varying fractional parameter. In particular, the dynamics of the long-memory coefficient, $d$, is specified through a stochastic recurrence equation driven by the score of…
This paper proposes methods for Bayesian inference in time-varying parameter (TVP) quantile regression (QR) models featuring conditional heteroskedasticity. I use data augmentation schemes to render the model conditionally Gaussian and…
Time series autoregression (AR) is a classical tool for modeling auto-correlations and periodic structures in real-world systems. We revisit this model from an interpretable machine learning perspective by introducing sparse autoregression…
In the autoregressive process of first order AR(1), a homogeneous correlated time series $u_t$ is recursively constructed as $u_t = q\; u_{t-1} + \sigma \;\epsilon_t$, using random Gaussian deviates $\epsilon_t$ and fixed values for the…
This paper proposes a straightforward algorithm to carry out inference in large time-varying parameter vector autoregressions (TVP-VARs) with mixture innovation components for each coefficient in the system. We significantly decrease the…
Linear models that contain a time-dependent response and explanatory variables have attracted much interest in recent years. The most general form of the existing approaches is of a linear regression model with autoregressive moving average…
Time-varying parameter (TVP) models have the potential to be over-parameterized, particularly when the number of variables in the model is large. Global-local priors are increasingly used to induce shrinkage in such models. But the…
This paper studies Markov-switching (MS) models with time-varying transition probabilities (TVTP) under various specifications of the transition probability matrix. Especially, we extend the two-regime common-variance setting of the…
A novel first-order autoregressive moving average model for analyzing discrete-time series observed at irregularly spaced times is introduced. Under Gaussianity, it is established that the model is strictly stationary and ergodic. In the…
We consider parameter estimation, hypothesis testing and variable selection for partially time-varying coefficient models. Our asymptotic theory has the useful feature that it can allow dependent, nonstationary error and covariate…
We develop a new methodology for forecasting matrix-valued time series with historical matrix data and auxiliary vector time series data. We focus on a time series of matrices defined on a static 2-D spatial grid and an auxiliary time…
We propose a novel framework for modeling time-varying persistence in economic time series, allowing for smoothly evolving heterogeneity in shock dynamics. We leverage localized regression techniques to flexibly identify changes in…
Interval-censored multi-state data arise in many studies of chronic diseases, where the health status of a subject can be characterized by a finite number of disease states and the transition between any two states is only known to occur…
This paper proposes a wavelet-based method for analysing periodic autoregressive moving average (PARMA) time series. Even though Fourier analysis provides an effective method for analysing periodic time series, it requires the estimation of…