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It is argued that all model based approaches to the selection of covariates in linear regression have failed. This applies to frequentist approaches based on P-values and to Bayesian approaches although for different reasons. In the first…
We introduce a linear-scaling stochastic method to compute real-space maps of any positive local spectral operator in a tight-binding model. By employing positive-definite estimators, the sampling error at each site can be rigorously…
This article is concerned with Gaussian process quadratures, which are numerical integration methods based on Gaussian process regression methods, and sigma-point methods, which are used in advanced non-linear Kalman filtering and smoothing…
We consider the problem of predicting the covariance of a zero mean Gaussian vector, based on another feature vector. We describe a covariance predictor that has the form of a generalized linear model, i.e., an affine function of the…
We consider Bayesian analysis of a class of multiple changepoint models. While there are a variety of efficient ways to analyse these models if the parameters associated with each segment are independent, there are few general approaches…
Multi-type Markov point processes offer a flexible framework for modelling complex multi-type point patterns where it is pertinent to capture both interactions between points as well as large scale trends depending on observed covariates.…
In this article, we study nonparametric inference for a covariate-adjusted regression function. This parameter captures the average association between a continuous exposure and an outcome after adjusting for other covariates. In…
Gaussian process priors are a popular choice for Bayesian analysis of regression problems. However, the implementation of these models can be complex, and ensuring that the implementation is correct can be challenging. In this paper we…
Covariate shift in regression problems and the associated distribution mismatch between training and test data is a commonly encountered phenomenon in machine learning. In this paper, we extend recent results on nonparametric convergence…
In this article, we consider the problem of simultaneous testing of hypotheses when the individual test statistics are not necessarily independent. Specifically, we consider the problem of simultaneous testing of point null hypotheses…
We introduce a novel way to combine boosting with Gaussian process and mixed effects models. This allows for relaxing, first, the zero or linearity assumption for the prior mean function in Gaussian process and grouped random effects models…
This paper proposes and analyzes fully data driven methods for inference about the mean function of a stochastic process from a sample of independent trajectories of the process, observed at discrete time points and corrupted by additive…
Approximating significance scans of searches for new particles in high-energy physics experiments as Gaussian fields is a well-established way to estimate the trials factors required to quantify global significances. We propose a novel,…
We address the issue of knots selection for Gaussian predictive process methodology. Predictive process approximation provides an effective solution to the cubic order computational complexity of Gaussian process models. This approximation…
In a sequence of multivariate observations or non-Euclidean data objects, such as networks, local dependence is common and could lead to false change-point discoveries. We propose a new way of permutation -- circular block permutation with…
In adaptive clinical trials, the conventional end-of-trial point estimate of a treatment effect is prone to bias, that is, a systematic tendency to deviate from its true value. As stated in recent FDA guidance on adaptive designs, it is…
We study the convergence of random function iterations for finding an invariant measure of the corresponding Markov operator. We call the problem of finding such an invariant measure the stochastic fixed point problem. This generalizes…
Change-point analysis is a flexible and computationally tractable tool for the analysis of times series data from systems that transition between discrete states and whose observables are corrupted by noise. The change-point algorithm is…
In many applications, data come with a natural ordering. This ordering can often induce local dependence among nearby variables. However, in complex data, the width of this dependence may vary, making simple assumptions such as a constant…
This work studies nonparametric Bayesian estimation of the intensity function of an inhomogeneous Poisson point process in the important case where the intensity depends on covariates, based on the observation of a single realisation of the…