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Bayesian filtering and smoothing for high-dimensional nonlinear dynamical systems are fundamental yet challenging problems in many areas of science and engineering. In this work, we propose FLUID, a flow-based unified amortized inference…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-04-27 Tiangang Cui , Xiaodong Feng , Chenlong Pei , Xiaoliang Wan , Tao Zhou

Posterior distributions on parameters computed from experimental data using Bayesian techniques are only as accurate as the models used to construct them. In many applications these models are incomplete, which both reduces the prospects of…

General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology · Physics 2015-06-23 Christopher J. Moore , Jonathan R. Gair

Fault diagnosis of mechanical equipment involves data collection, feature extraction, and pattern recognition but is often hindered by the imbalanced nature of industrial data, introducing significant uncertainty and reducing diagnostic…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-18 Zhixuan Lian , Shangyu Li , Qixuan Huang , Zijian Huang , Haifei Liu , Jianan Qiu , Puyu Yang , Laifa Tao

This study presents a conditional flow matching framework for solving physics-constrained Bayesian inverse problems. In this setting, samples from the joint distribution of inferred variables and measurements are assumed available, while…

Uncertainty estimation for unlabeled data is crucial to active learning. With a deep neural network employed as the backbone model, the data selection process is highly challenging due to the potential over-confidence of the model…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-02-14 Xingjian Li , Pengkun Yang , Yangcheng Gu , Xueying Zhan , Tianyang Wang , Min Xu , Chengzhong Xu

Reliable predictive uncertainty estimation plays an important role in enabling the deployment of neural networks to safety-critical settings. A popular approach for estimating the predictive uncertainty of neural networks is to define a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-12-29 Tim G. J. Rudner , Zonghao Chen , Yee Whye Teh , Yarin Gal

Bayesian inference promises a framework for principled uncertainty quantification of neural network predictions. Barriers to adoption include the difficulty of fully characterizing posterior distributions on network parameters and the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-01-22 Katharine Fisher , Youssef Marzouk

Equation learning aims to infer differential equation models from data. While a number of studies have shown that differential equation models can be successfully identified when the data are sufficiently detailed and corrupted with…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2021-09-30 Simon Martina-Perez , Matthew J. Simpson , Ruth E. Baker

Bayesian Neural Networks with Latent Variables (BNN+LVs) capture predictive uncertainty by explicitly modeling model uncertainty (via priors on network weights) and environmental stochasticity (via a latent input noise variable). In this…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-09-19 Yaniv Yacoby , Weiwei Pan , Finale Doshi-Velez

In Hezaveh et al. 2017 we showed that deep learning can be used for model parameter estimation and trained convolutional neural networks to determine the parameters of strong gravitational lensing systems. Here we demonstrate a method for…

Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics · Physics 2017-11-29 Laurence Perreault Levasseur , Yashar D. Hezaveh , Risa H. Wechsler

Marginalising out uncertain quantities within the internal representations or parameters of neural networks is of central importance for a wide range of learning techniques, such as empirical, variational or full Bayesian methods. We set…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2015-07-21 Justin Bayer , Maximilian Karl , Daniela Korhammer , Patrick van der Smagt

This work presents a novel and effective method for fitting multidimensional ellipsoids to scattered data in the contamination of noise and outliers. We approach the problem as a Bayesian parameter estimate process and maximize the…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-07-30 Zhao Mingyang , Jia Xiaohong , Ma Lei , Shi Yuke , Jiang Jingen , Li Qizhai , Yan Dong-Ming , Huang Tiejun

Various noise models have been developed in quantum computing study to describe the propagation and effect of the noise which is caused by imperfect implementation of hardware. Identifying parameters such as gate and readout error rates are…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2022-11-08 Muqing Zheng , Ang Li , Tamás Terlaky , Xiu Yang

Factor analysis (FA) plays a critical role in psychometrics, econometrics, and statistics. Recently, maximum likelihood FA (MLFA) has been applied to direction of arrival (DOA) estimation in unknown nonuniform noise and a variety of…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2026-01-06 Mingyan Gong

Deep learning models have exhibited superior performance in predictive tasks with the explosively increasing Electronic Health Records (EHR). However, due to the lack of transparency, behaviors of deep learning models are difficult to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-07-16 Riyi Qiu , Yugang Jia , Mirsad Hadzikadic , Michael Dulin , Xi Niu , Xin Wang

Accurate quantification of intracellular metabolic fluxes is central to systems biology and biotechnology. Flux estimation relies on biochemical network models, with $^{13}$C metabolic flux analysis (MFA) being the state-of-the-art…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2026-05-26 Johann F. Jadebeck , Anton Stratmann , Martin Beyß , Katharina Nöh

Generative modeling of crystal data distribution is an important yet challenging task due to the unique periodic physical symmetry of crystals. Diffusion-based methods have shown early promise in modeling crystal distribution. More…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-05 Hanlin Wu , Yuxuan Song , Jingjing Gong , Ziyao Cao , Yawen Ouyang , Jianbing Zhang , Hao Zhou , Wei-Ying Ma , Jingjing Liu

When modelling time series, it is common to decompose observed variation into a "signal" process, the process of interest, and "noise", representing nuisance factors that obfuscate the signal. To separate signal from noise, assumptions must…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-11-11 Richard Creswell , Ben Lambert , Chon Lok Lei , Martin Robinson , David Gavaghan

We present a new Bayesian methodology to learn the unknown material density of a given sample by inverting its two-dimensional images that are taken with a Scanning Electron Microscope. An image results from a sequence of projections of the…

Applications · Statistics 2014-03-06 Dalia Chakrabarty , Fabio Rigat , Nare Gabrielyan , Richard Beanland , Shashi Paul

There are two major types of uncertainty one can model. Aleatoric uncertainty captures noise inherent in the observations. On the other hand, epistemic uncertainty accounts for uncertainty in the model -- uncertainty which can be explained…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2017-10-06 Alex Kendall , Yarin Gal
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