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Estimation of treatment efficacy of real-world clinical interventions involves working with continuous outcomes such as time-to-death, re-hospitalization, or a composite event that may be subject to censoring. Counterfactual reasoning in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-08-11 Chirag Nagpal , Mononito Goswami , Keith Dufendach , Artur Dubrawski

Bayesian nonparametric inferential procedures based on Markov chain Monte Carlo marginal methods typically yield point estimates in the form of posterior expectations. Though very useful and easy to implement in a variety of statistical…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-05-04 Julyan Arbel , Antonio Lijoi , Bernardo Nipoti

Accurate predictions of when a component will fail are crucial when planning maintenance, and by modeling the distribution of these failure times, survival models have shown to be particularly useful in this context. The presented…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-28 Olov Holmer , Mattias Krysander , Erik Frisk

Many online platforms have deployed anti-fraud systems to detect and prevent fraudulent activities. However, there is usually a gap between the time that a user commits a fraudulent action and the time that the user is suspended by the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-11-15 Panpan Zheng , Shuhan Yuan , Xintao Wu

Selection bias arises when the probability that an observation enters a dataset depends on variables related to the quantities of interest, leading to systematic distortions in estimation and uncertainty quantification. For example, in…

Many applications involve reasoning about time durations before a critical event happens--also called time-to-event outcomes. When will a customer cancel a subscription, a coma patient wake up, or a convicted criminal reoffend?…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-10-03 George H. Chen

Interval-censored data analysis is important in biomedical statistics for any type of time-to-event response where the time of response is not known exactly, but rather only known to occur between two assessment times. Many clinical trials…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-06-12 Weichi Yao , Halina Frydman , Jeffrey S. Simonoff

A delay between the occurrence and the reporting of events often has practical implications such as for the amount of capital to hold for insurance companies, or for taking preventive actions in case of infectious diseases. The accurate…

Applications · Statistics 2021-06-24 Roel Verbelen , Katrien Antonio , Gerda Claeskens , Jonas Crevecoeur

Dropout is common in clinical studies, with up to half of patients leaving early due to side effects or other reasons. When dropout is informative (i.e., dependent on survival time), it introduces censoring bias, because of which treatment…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-12 Yuxin Wang , Dennis Frauen , Jonas Schweisthal , Maresa Schröder , Stefan Feuerriegel

Survival regression aims to predict the time when an event of interest will take place, typically a death or a failure. A fully parametric method [18] is proposed to estimate the survival function as a mixture of individual parametric…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-04-25 Qinxin Wang , Jiayuan Huang , Junhui Li , Jiaming Liu

Prediction methods for time-to-event outcomes often utilize survival models that rely on strong assumptions about noninformative censoring or on how individual-level covariates and survival functions are related. When the main interest is…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-02-29 Mahsa Ashouri , Nicholas C. Henderson

We derive a general multiple state model for critical illness insurances. In contrast to the classical model, we take into account that the probability of death for a dread disease sufferer may depend on the duration of the disease, and the…

Applications · Statistics 2016-03-01 Joanna Dȩbicka , Beata Zmyślona

Survival analysis has become a standard approach for modelling time to default by time-varying covariates in credit risk. Unlike most existing methods that implicitly assume a stationary data-generating process, in practise, mortgage…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-01-29 Jianwei Peng , Stefan Lessmann

In this work we show a Bayesian quantile regression method to response variables with mixed discrete-continuous distribution with a point mass at zero, where these observations are believed to be left censored or true zeros. We combine the…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-11-19 Bruno Santos , Heleno Bolfarine

A number of models for generating statistical data in various fields of insurance, including life insurance, pensions, and general insurance have been considered. It is shown that the insurance statistics data, as a rule, are truncated and…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-04-16 Valery Baskakov , Anna Bartunova

The mixture cure rate model is the most commonly used cure rate model in the literature. In the context of mixture cure rate model, the standard approach to model the effect of covariates on the cured or uncured probability is to use a…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-08-23 Suvra Pal , Yingwei Peng , Sandip Barui , Pei Wang

Risk prediction models are widely used to guide real-world decision-making in areas such as healthcare and economics, and they also play a key role in estimating nuisance parameters in semiparametric inference. The super learner is a…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-05 Anders Munch , Thomas A. Gerds

Insurance products frequently cover significant claims arising from a variety of sources. To model losses from these products accurately, actuarial models must account for high-severity claims. A widely used strategy is to apply a mixture…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-04-30 Sébastien Jessup , Mélina Mailhot , Mathieu Pigeon

Probabilistic models analyze data by relying on a set of assumptions. Data that exhibit deviations from these assumptions can undermine inference and prediction quality. Robust models offer protection against mismatch between a model's…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-06-20 Yixin Wang , Alp Kucukelbir , David M. Blei

Survival time prediction from medical images is important for treatment planning, where accurate estimations can improve healthcare quality. One issue affecting the training of survival models is censored data. Most of the current survival…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2022-05-27 Renato Hermoza , Gabriel Maicas , Jacinto C. Nascimento , Gustavo Carneiro