Related papers: Double-Loop Importance Sampling for McKean--Vlasov…
This work addresses the estimation of rare-event quantities expressed as expectations of smooth observables of solutions to a broad class of McKean--Vlasov stochastic differential equations (MV-SDEs). Building on the double loop Monte Carlo…
This paper deals with the Monte-Carlo methods for evaluating expectations of functionals of solutions to McKean-Vlasov Stochastic Differential Equations (MV-SDE) with drifts of super-linear growth. We assume that the MV-SDE is approximated…
This work combines multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) with importance sampling to estimate rare-event quantities that can be expressed as the expectation of a Lipschitz observable of the solution to a broad class of McKean--Vlasov stochastic…
The estimation of the probability of rare events is an important task in reliability and risk assessment. We consider failure events that are expressed in terms of a limit state function, which depends on the solution of a partial…
We explore efficient estimation of statistical quantities, particularly rare event probabilities, for stochastic reaction networks. Consequently, we propose an importance sampling (IS) approach to improve the Monte Carlo (MC) estimator…
Importance Sampling (IS) is a widely used variance reduction technique for enhancing the efficiency of Monte Carlo methods, particularly in rare-event simulation and related applications. Despite its effectiveness, the performance of IS is…
In this work we employ importance sampling (IS) techniques to track a small over-threshold probability of a running maximum associated with the solution of a stochastic differential equation (SDE) within the framework of ensemble Kalman…
The multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) method for continuous-time Markov chains, first introduced by Anderson and Higham (SIAM Multiscal Model. Simul. 10(1), 2012), is a highly efficient simulation technique that can be used to estimate various…
We propose a novel alternative approach to our previous work (Ben Hammouda et al., 2023) to improve the efficiency of Monte Carlo (MC) estimators for rare event probabilities for stochastic reaction networks (SRNs). In the same spirit of…
This paper applies several well-known tricks from the numerical treatment of deterministic differential equations to improve the efficiency of the Multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) method for stochastic differential equations (SDEs) and…
An optimal experimental set-up maximizes the value of data for statistical inferences and predictions. The efficiency of strategies for finding optimal experimental set-ups is particularly important for experiments that are time-consuming…
We consider importance sampling (IS) type weighted estimators based on Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) targeting an approximate marginal of the target distribution. In the context of Bayesian latent variable models, the MCMC typically…
In this paper, we propose a sequential directional importance sampling (SDIS) method for rare event estimation. SDIS expresses a small failure probability in terms of a sequence of auxiliary failure probabilities, defined by magnifying the…
The goal of this paper is to develop provably efficient importance sampling Monte Carlo methods for the estimation of rare events within the class of linear stochastic partial differential equations (SPDEs). We find that if a spectral gap…
We address the approximation of functionals depending on a system of particles, described by stochastic differential equations (SDEs), in the mean-field limit when the number of particles approaches infinity. This problem is equivalent to…
This paper deals with the estimation of rare event probabilities using importance sampling (IS), where an optimal proposal distribution is computed with the cross-entropy (CE) method. Although, IS optimized with the CE method leads to an…
Estimating the probability that a sum of random variables (RVs) exceeds a given threshold is a well-known challenging problem. Closed-form expression of the sum distribution is usually intractable and presents an open problem. A crude Monte…
McKean-Vlasov stochastic differential equations (MVSDEs) describe systems whose dynamics depend on both individual states and the population distribution, and they arise widely in neuroscience, finance, and epidemiology. In many…
Monte Carlo methods represent the "de facto" standard for approximating complicated integrals involving multidimensional target distributions. In order to generate random realizations from the target distribution, Monte Carlo techniques use…
We introduce a novel meshless simulation method for the McKean-Vlasov Stochastic Differential Equation (MV-SDE) utilizing deep learning, applicable to both self-interaction and interaction scenarios. Traditionally, numerical methods for…