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The accurate prediction of time-changing variances is an important task in the modeling of financial data. Standard econometric models are often limited as they assume rigid functional relationships for the variances. Moreover, function…

The fundamental theorem behind financial markets is that stock prices are intrinsically complex and stochastic. One of the complexities is the volatility associated with stock prices. Volatility is a tendency for prices to change…

In this paper, we show that the recent integration of statistical models with deep recurrent neural networks provides a new way of formulating volatility (the degree of variation of time series) models that have been widely used in time…

A model involving Gaussian processes (GPs) is introduced to simultaneously handle multi-task learning, clustering, and prediction for multiple functional data. This procedure acts as a model-based clustering method for functional data as…

We introduce stochastic variational inference for Gaussian process models. This enables the application of Gaussian process (GP) models to data sets containing millions of data points. We show how GPs can be vari- ationally decomposed to…

Credible forecasting and representation learning of dynamical systems are of ever-increasing importance for reliable decision-making. To that end, we propose a family of Gaussian processes (GP) for dynamical systems with linear…

We present a novel approach for explaining Gaussian processes (GPs) that can utilize the full analytical covariance structure present in GPs. Our method is based on the popular solution concept of Shapley values extended to stochastic…

In this paper we use Gaussian Process (GP) regression to propose a novel approach for predicting volatility of financial returns by forecasting the envelopes of the time series. We provide a direct comparison of their performance to…

This work is devoted to the study of modeling geophysical and financial time series. A class of volatility models with time-varying parameters is presented to forecast the volatility of time series in a stationary environment. The modeling…

Variational autoencoders (VAE) are a powerful and widely-used class of models to learn complex data distributions in an unsupervised fashion. One important limitation of VAEs is the prior assumption that latent sample representations are…

Gaussian processes (GPs) are a powerful tool for probabilistic inference over functions. They have been applied to both regression and non-linear dimensionality reduction, and offer desirable properties such as uncertainty estimates,…

We introduce a novel stochastic variational inference method for Gaussian process ($\mathcal{GP}$) regression, by deriving a posterior over a learnable set of coresets: i.e., over pseudo-input/output, weighted pairs. Unlike former free-form…

The Gaussian process (GP) is a popular statistical technique for stochastic function approximation and uncertainty quantification from data. GPs have been adopted into the realm of machine learning in the last two decades because of their…

Geostatistics is a branch of statistics concerned with stochastic processes over continuous domains, with Gaussian processes (GPs) providing a flexible and principled modelling framework. However, the high computational cost of simulating…

Transformed Gaussian Processes (TGPs) are stochastic processes specified by transforming samples from the joint distribution from a prior process (typically a GP) using an invertible transformation; increasing the flexibility of the base…

We develop an automated variational method for inference in models with Gaussian process (GP) priors and general likelihoods. The method supports multiple outputs and multiple latent functions and does not require detailed knowledge of the…

The Gaussian process (GP) regression model is a widely employed surrogate modeling technique for computer experiments, offering precise predictions and statistical inference for the computer simulators that generate experimental data.…

We define a copula process which describes the dependencies between arbitrarily many random variables independently of their marginal distributions. As an example, we develop a stochastic volatility model, Gaussian Copula Process Volatility…

Gaussian processes (GPs) are a good choice for function approximation as they are flexible, robust to over-fitting, and provide well-calibrated predictive uncertainty. Deep Gaussian processes (DGPs) are multi-layer generalisations of GPs,…

The Gaussian Process with a deep kernel is an extension of the classic GP regression model and this extended model usually constructs a new kernel function by deploying deep learning techniques like long short-term memory networks. A…