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Post-hoc multi-class calibration is a common approach for providing high-quality confidence estimates of deep neural network predictions. Recent work has shown that widely used scaling methods underestimate their calibration error, while…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-11-28 Kanil Patel , William Beluch , Bin Yang , Michael Pfeiffer , Dan Zhang

The performance and ease of use of deep learning-based binary classifiers have improved significantly in recent years. This has opened up the potential for automating critical inspection tasks, which have traditionally only been trusted to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-25 Thorbjørn Mosekjær Iversen , Zebin Duan , Frederik Hagelskjær

Machine learning classifiers often produce probabilistic predictions that are critical for accurate and interpretable decision-making in various domains. The quality of these predictions is generally evaluated with proper losses, such as…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-26 Eugène Berta , David Holzmüller , Michael I. Jordan , Francis Bach

Being cautious is crucial for enhancing the trustworthiness of machine learning systems integrated into decision-making pipelines. Although calibrated probabilities help in optimal decision-making, perfect calibration remains unattainable,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-08-12 Mari-Liis Allikivi , Joonas Järve , Meelis Kull

Calibration is crucial in deep learning applications, especially in fields like healthcare and autonomous driving, where accurate confidence estimates are vital for decision-making. However, deep neural networks often suffer from…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-17 Linwei Tao , Haolan Guo , Minjing Dong , Chang Xu

Modern neural networks have found to be miscalibrated in terms of confidence calibration, i.e., their predicted confidence scores do not reflect the observed accuracy or precision. Recent work has introduced methods for post-hoc confidence…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2021-09-22 Fabian Küppers , Jan Kronenberger , Jonas Schneider , Anselm Haselhoff

Deep Neural Networks (DNNs), despite their tremendous success in recent years, could still cast doubts on their predictions due to the intrinsic uncertainty associated with their learning process. Ensemble techniques and post-hoc…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-03-03 Chunwei Ma , Ziyun Huang , Jiayi Xian , Mingchen Gao , Jinhui Xu

Optimal decision making requires that classifiers produce uncertainty estimates consistent with their empirical accuracy. However, deep neural networks are often under- or over-confident in their predictions. Consequently, methods have been…

Deep neural networks (DNNs) have achieved significant success across various tasks, but ensuring reliable uncertainty estimates, known as model calibration, is crucial for their safe and effective deployment. Modern DNNs often suffer from…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2024-10-29 Linwei Tao , Minjing Dong , Chang Xu

For classification models based on neural networks, the maximum predicted class probability is often used as a confidence score. This score rarely predicts well the probability of making a correct prediction and requires a post-processing…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-11-07 Adrien LeCoz , Stéphane Herbin , Faouzi Adjed

Confidence calibration of classification models is a technique to estimate the true posterior probability of the predicted class, which is critical for ensuring reliable decision-making in practical applications. Existing confidence…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-02-19 Jinzong Dong , Zhaohui Jiang , Dong Pan , Haoyang Yu

A key challenge in probabilistic regression is ensuring that predictive distributions accurately reflect true empirical uncertainty. Minimizing overall prediction error often encourages models to prioritize informativeness over calibration,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-02-17 Ádám Jung , Domokos M. Kelen , András A. Benczúr

Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) have achieved state-of-the-art performance in many computer vision tasks. However, high computational and storage demands hinder their deployment into resource-constrained environments, such as embedded…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2024-06-03 Pallavi Mitra , Gesina Schwalbe , Nadja Klein

In this paper, we study the post-hoc calibration of modern neural networks, a problem that has drawn a lot of attention in recent years. Many calibration methods of varying complexity have been proposed for the task, but there is no…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-08-02 Sergio A. Balanya , Juan Maroñas , Daniel Ramos

We introduce a framework for calibrating machine learning models so that their predictions satisfy explicit, finite-sample statistical guarantees. Our calibration algorithms work with any underlying model and (unknown) data-generating…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-10-03 Anastasios N. Angelopoulos , Stephen Bates , Emmanuel J. Candès , Michael I. Jordan , Lihua Lei

Data-driven methods have achieved notable performance on intent detection, which is a task to comprehend user queries. Nonetheless, they are controversial for over-confident predictions. In some scenarios, users do not only care about the…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2022-03-18 Yantao Gong , Cao Liu , Fan Yang , Xunliang Cai , Guanglu Wan , Jiansong Chen , Weipeng Zhang , Houfeng Wang

Many applications of classification methods not only require high accuracy but also reliable estimation of predictive uncertainty. However, while many current classification frameworks, in particular deep neural networks, achieve high…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-02-28 Jonathan Wenger , Hedvig Kjellström , Rudolph Triebel

Deep metric learning has gained promising improvement in recent years following the success of deep learning. It has been successfully applied to problems in few-shot learning, image retrieval, and open-set classifications. However,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-06-11 Maryna Karpusha , Sunghee Yun , Istvan Fehervari

We propose an evaluation framework for class probability estimates (CPEs) in the presence of label uncertainty, which is commonly observed as diagnosis disagreement between experts in the medical domain. We also formalize evaluation metrics…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-03-23 Takahiro Mimori , Keiko Sasada , Hirotaka Matsui , Issei Sato

Modern convolutional neural networks (CNNs) are known to be overconfident in terms of their calibration on unseen input data. That is to say, they are more confident than they are accurate. This is undesirable if the probabilities predicted…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-12-03 Guoxuan Xia , Sangwon Ha , Tiago Azevedo , Partha Maji