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Precise and reliable climate projections are required for climate adaptation and mitigation, but Earth system models still exhibit great uncertainties. Several approaches have been developed to reduce the spread of climate projections and…

We assess empirical models in climate econometrics using modern statistical learning techniques. Existing approaches are prone to outliers, ignore sample dependencies, and lack principled model selection. To address these issues, we…

Applications · Statistics 2025-05-26 Christof Schötz , Jan Hassel , Christian Otto

Compositional convection is atmospheric mixing driven by density variations caused by compositional gradients. Previous studies have suggested that compositional gradients of atmospheric trace species within planetary atmospheres can impact…

Earth and Planetary Astrophysics · Physics 2025-11-18 Namrah Habib , Raymond T. Pierrehumbert

Climate change projections for boreal winter precipitation in Tropical America has beenaddressed by statistical downscaling (SD) using the principal component regression with sea-level pressure (SLP) as the predictor variable. The SD model…

Convective available potential energy (CAPE) is of strong interest in climate modeling because of its role in both severe weather and in model construction. Extreme levels of CAPE ($>$ 2000 J/kg) are associated with high-impact weather…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2021-10-27 Ziwei Wang , James A. Franke , Zhenqi Luo , Elisabeth J. Moyer

Intensification of tropical storms measured as the central pressure tendency represents a subtle imbalance, of the order of $10^{-3}$, between the inflow and outflow of air in the storm core. Factors driving this imbalance, especially in…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2024-01-30 Anastassia M. Makarieva , Andrei V. Nefiodov

The present study investigates how global thermodynamic properties of the climate system are affected by the changes in the intensity of the imposed oceanic heat transport in an atmospheric general circulation model in aqua-planet…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2014-10-13 Alexander Schröder , Valerio Lucarini , Frank Lunkeit

The state of earth's climate is constrained by well-known physical principles such as energy balance and the conservation of energy. Increased greenhouse gas concentrations affect the atmospheric optical depth, and physical consistency…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2011-06-27 Rasmus E. Benestad

Climate change is causing the intensification of rainfall extremes. Precipitation projections with high spatial resolution are important for society to prepare for these changes, e.g. to model flooding impacts. Physics-based simulations for…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2022-11-30 Henry Addison , Elizabeth Kendon , Suman Ravuri , Laurence Aitchison , Peter AG Watson

Understanding how fast atmospheric variability shapes slow climate variability and sensitivity remains a central challenge in Earth-system science. Recent advances in machine-learned (ML) atmospheric models have demonstrated remarkable…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2026-05-28 Bobby Antonio , Kristian Strommen , Pablo Ortega , Hannah M. Christensen

We introduce a framework for developing efficient and interpretable climate emulators (CEs) for economic models of climate change. The paper makes two main contributions. First, we propose a general framework for constructing carbon-cycle…

We compare five general circulation models (GCMs) which have been recently used to study hot extrasolar planet atmospheres (BOB, CAM, IGCM, MITgcm, and PEQMOD), under three test cases useful for assessing model convergence and accuracy.…

Earth and Planetary Astrophysics · Physics 2015-06-18 Inna Polichtchouk , James Y-K. Cho , Chris Watkins , Heidar Thor Thrastarson , Orkan M. Umurhan , Manuel de la Torre Juarez

Global Storm-Resolving Models (GSRMs) have gained widespread interest because of the unprecedented detail with which they resolve the global climate. However, it remains difficult to quantify objective differences in how GSRMs resolve…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2023-12-05 Griffin Mooers , Mike Pritchard , Tom Beucler , Prakhar Srivastava , Harshini Mangipudi , Liran Peng , Pierre Gentine , Stephan Mandt

In order to explore the effects of climate change on atmospheric convection and the water cycle, we develop and analyse an extension of the Rainy-B\'enard model, which is itself a moist version of the Rayleigh-B\'enard model of dry…

Fluid Dynamics · Physics 2025-04-09 Gregory N. Dritschel , Steven M. Tobias , Douglas J. Parker , Lorenzo Tomassini

Interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) are major drivers of heliospheric variability and can produce prolonged disturbances near Earth. Understanding their thermodynamic evolution is crucial for assessing their heat budget and…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2025-12-18 Soumyaranjan Khuntia , Wageesh Mishra

Earth System Models (ESMs) are essential for understanding the interaction between human activities and the Earth's climate. However, the computational demands of ESMs often limit the number of simulations that can be run, hindering the…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2024-09-19 Seth Bassetti , Brian Hutchinson , Claudia Tebaldi , Ben Kravitz

The relationship between global warming and extreme rainfalls in Taiwan was examined in this study. Taiwan rainfall data from TCCIP, a project led by MOST, were analyzed. North Hemisphere reference temperature data from NCEI led by NOAA.…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-04-04 Cheng-Ching Lin

Extreme precipitation events with large spatial extents may have more severe impacts than localized events as they can lead to widespread flooding. It is debated how climate change may affect the spatial extent of precipitation extremes,…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-12-07 Peng Zhong , Manuela Brunner , Thomas Opitz , Raphaël Huser

The Sun becomes brighter with time, but Earth's climate is roughly temperate for life during its long-term history; for early Earth, this is known as the Faint Young Sun Problem (FYSP). Besides the carbonate-silicate feedback, recent…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2022-09-07 Mingyu Yan , Jun Yang , Yixiao Zhang , Han Huang

Reliable precipitation nowcasting is critical for weather-sensitive decision-making, yet neural weather models (NWMs) can produce poorly calibrated probabilistic forecasts. Standard calibration metrics such as the expected calibration error…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-01 Lauri Kurki , Yaniel Cabrera , Samu Karanko