Related papers: Climate Response and Sensitivity: Timescales and L…
Climate models, such as Earth system models (ESMs), are crucial for simulating future climate change based on projected Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. While ESMs are sophisticated and invaluable,…
Tackling climate change requires the rapid and deep decarbonization of electric power systems. While energy management systems (EMSs) play a central role in this transition, conventional EMSs focus mainly on economic efficiency and often…
In climate science, the tuning of climate models is a computationally intensive problem due to the combination of the high-dimensionality of the system state and long integration times. Supermodelling is a technique which has shown the…
The land-atmosphere coupling strength has been defined as the percentage of precipitation variability explained by the variation of soil moisture in the Global Land-Atmosphere Coupling Experiment (GLACE). While it is useful to identify…
Dryland vegetation ecosystems are known to be susceptible to critical transitions between alternative stable states when subjected to external forcing. Such transitions are often discussed through the framework of bifurcation theory, but…
Climate models indicate a possible collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) even for moderate climate change scenarios. There is considerable uncertainty in its likelihood for a given scenario and the critical…
Understanding the dynamics and evolution of climate change and associated uncertainties is key for designing robust policy actions. Computer models are key tools in this scientific effort, which have now reached a high level of…
Among the properties that are common to complex systems, the presence of critical thresholds in the dynamics of the system is one of the most important. Recently, there has been interest in the universalities that occur in the behavior of…
Complex Earth System Models are widely utilised to make conditional statements about the future climate under some assumptions about changes in future atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations; these statements are often referred to as…
Quantifying the risk of global warming exceeding critical targets such as 2.0 K requires reliable projections of uncertainty as well as best estimates of Global Mean Surface Temperature (GMST). However, uncertainty bands on GMST projections…
Supply and demand in future energy systems depend on the weather. We therefore need to quantify how climate change and variability impact energy systems. Here, we present Climate2Energy (C2E), a framework to consistently convert climate…
Using equilibrium fluctuations to understand the response of a physical system to an externally imposed perturbation is the basis for linear response theory, which is widely used to interpret experiments and shed light on microscopic…
Sudden and abrupt changes can occur in a nonlinear system within many fields of science when such a system crosses a tipping point and rapid changes of the system occur in response to slow changes in an external forcing. These can occur…
Promoting and increasing energy efficiency is a promising method of reducing CO2 emissions and avoiding the potentially devastating effects of climate change. The question is: How do we induce a cultural or behavioural change whereby people…
We conduct a sensitivity analysis of a new type of integrated climate-economic model recently proposed in the literature, where the core economic component is based on the Goodwin-Keen dynamics instead of a neoclassical growth model.…
We examine a phase transition in a model of random spatial permutations which originates in a study of the interacting Bose gas. Permutations are weighted according to point positions; the low-temperature onset of the appearance of…
The Ghil-Sellers energy balance model of Earth's climate, features -- for a considerable range of the solar intensity -- two stable climate states (a warm and a cold snowball Earth), where the bistability results from the celebrated…
This paper estimates the two-component energy balance model as a linear state space system (EBM-SS model) using historical data. It is a joint model for the temperature in the mixed layer, the temperature in the deep ocean layer, and…
Evaluating robustness under temporal distribution shift remains an open challenge. Existing metrics quantify the average decline in performance, but fail to capture how models adapt to evolving data. As a result, temporal degradation is…
Power spectra of global surface temperature (GST) records reveal major periodicities at about 9.1, 10-11, 19-22 and 59-62 years. The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) general circulation models (GCMs), to be used in the IPCC…