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Machine learning methods are increasingly widely used in high-risk settings such as healthcare, transportation, and finance. In these settings, it is important that a model produces calibrated uncertainty to reflect its own confidence and…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2022-09-09 Sophia Sun

Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly deployed to autonomously solve real-world tasks. A key ingredient for this is the LLM Function-Calling paradigm, a widely used approach for equipping LLMs with tool-use capabilities. However, an…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-04-28 Zihuiwen Ye , Lukas Aichberger , Michael Kirchhof , Sinead Williamson , Luca Zappella , Yarin Gal , Arno Blaas , Adam Golinski

Reliable uncertainty quantification (UQ) in machine learning (ML) regression tasks is becoming the focus of many studies in materials and chemical science. It is now well understood that average calibration is insufficient, and most studies…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-01-25 Pascal Pernot

Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable capability in a variety of NLP tasks. However, LLMs are also prone to generate nonfactual content. Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) is pivotal in enhancing our understanding of a…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-10-07 Caiqi Zhang , Fangyu Liu , Marco Basaldella , Nigel Collier

Large language Models (LLMs) have achieved significant breakthroughs across diverse domains; however, they can still produce unreliable or misleading outputs. For responsible LLM application, Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) techniques are…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-15 Qihao Wen , Jiahao Wang , Yang Nan , Pengfei He , Ravi Tandon , Han Xu

Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) is an essential step in computational model validation because assessment of the model accuracy requires a concrete, quantifiable measure of uncertainty in the model predictions. The concept of UQ in the…

Applications · Statistics 2023-03-24 Xu Wu , Ziyu Xie , Farah Alsafadi , Tomasz Kozlowski

We introduce a novel approach for calibrating uncertainty quantification (UQ) tailored for multi-modal large language models (LLMs). Existing state-of-the-art UQ methods rely on consistency among multiple responses generated by the LLM on…

Large language models(LLMs) are increasingly expanding their real-world applications across domains, e.g., question answering, autonomous driving, and automatic software development. Despite this achievement, LLMs, as data-driven systems,…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-12-09 Xianzong Wu , Xiaohong Li , Lili Quan , Qiang Hu

Countless research works of deep neural networks (DNNs) in the task of credit card fraud detection have focused on improving the accuracy of point predictions and mitigating unwanted biases by building different network architectures or…

Uncertainty quantification has been a core of the statistical machine learning, but its computational bottleneck has been a serious challenge for both Bayesians and frequentists. We propose a model-based framework in quantifying…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-06-04 Minsuk Shin , Young Lee , Jun S. Liu

With the advancement of GPS, remote sensing, and computational simulations, large amounts of geospatial and spatiotemporal data are being collected at an increasing speed. Such emerging spatiotemporal big data assets, together with the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-24 Wenchong He , Zhe Jiang

Assessing the quality of aleatoric uncertainty estimates from uncertainty quantification (UQ) deep learning methods is important in scientific contexts, where uncertainty is physically meaningful and important to characterize and interpret…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-11-14 Rebecca Nevin , Aleksandra Ćiprijanović , Brian D. Nord

Researchers have proposed several approaches for neural network (NN) based uncertainty quantification (UQ). However, most of the approaches are developed considering strong assumptions. Uncertainty quantification algorithms often perform…

In the last few decades, uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods have been used widely to ensure the robustness of engineering designs. This chapter aims to detail recent advances in popular uncertainty quantification methods used in…

Computation · Statistics 2022-11-08 Dinesh Kumar , Farid Ahmed , Shoaib Usman , Ayodeji Alajo , Syed Alam

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is a prominent approach for eliciting truthful answers from large language models (LLMs). To date, information-based and consistency-based UQ have been the dominant UQ methods for text generation via LLMs.…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-04-29 Artem Vazhentsev , Lyudmila Rvanova , Ivan Lazichny , Alexander Panchenko , Maxim Panov , Timothy Baldwin , Artem Shelmanov

Uncertainty quantification has emerged as an effective approach to closed-book hallucination detection for LLMs, but existing methods are largely designed for short-form outputs and do not generalize well to long-form generation. We…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-02-20 Dylan Bouchard , Mohit Singh Chauhan , Viren Bajaj , David Skarbrevik

We present a comparison of methods for uncertainty quantification (UQ) in deep learning algorithms in the context of a simple physical system. Three of the most common uncertainty quantification methods - Bayesian Neural Networks (BNN),…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-12-08 João Caldeira , Brian Nord

Deep learning models for semantic segmentation are prone to poor performance in real-world applications due to the highly challenging nature of the task. Model uncertainty quantification (UQ) is one way to address this issue of lack of…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2022-11-04 Rishabh Singh , Jose C. Principe

Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) is vital to safety-critical model-based analyses, but the widespread adoption of sophisticated UQ methods is limited by technical complexity. In this paper, we introduce UM-Bridge (the UQ and Modeling…

Despite the rapid advancement of Large Language Models (LLMs), uncertainty quantification in LLM generation is a persistent challenge. Although recent approaches have achieved strong performance by restricting LLMs to produce short or…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-04-21 Haozhi Fan , Jinhao Duan , Kaidi Xu
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