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Stepped-wedge designs are increasingly used in randomized experiments to accommodate logistical and ethical constraints by staggering treatment roll-out over time. Despite their popularity, existing analytical methods largely rely on…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-12 Liangbo Lyu , Bingkai Wang

We consider the problem of extrapolating treatment effects across heterogeneous populations (``sites"/``contexts"). We consider an idealized scenario in which the researcher observes cross-sectional data for a large number of units across…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-10-03 Konrad Menzel

This paper concerns robust inference on average treatment effects following model selection. In the selection on observables framework, we show how to construct confidence intervals based on a doubly-robust estimator that are robust to…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-04-13 Max H. Farrell

Imputing missing potential outcomes using an estimated regression function is a natural idea for estimating causal effects. In the literature, estimators that combine imputation and regression adjustments are believed to be comparable to…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-01-20 Zhexiao Lin , Fang Han

In response to the growing need for generating real-world evidence from multi-site collaborative studies, we introduce an efficient collaborative learning approach to evaluate average treatment effect (ECO-ATE) in a multi-site setting under…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-09 Sijia Li , Rui Duan

We propose a new nonparametric modeling framework for causal inference when outcomes depend on how agents are linked in a social or economic network. Such network interference describes a large literature on treatment spillovers, social…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-03-25 Eric Auerbach , Hongchang Guo , Max Tabord-Meehan

This paper proposes a new non-parametric bootstrap method to quantify the uncertainty of average treatment effect estimate for the treated from matching estimators. More specifically, it seeks to quantify the uncertainty associated with the…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-08-21 Jing Li

When considering the effect a treatment will cause in a population of interest, we often look to evidence from randomized controlled trials. In settings where multiple trials on a treatment are available, we may wish to synthesize the…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-09-08 Nicole Schnitzler , Eloise Kaizar

Many statistical estimands can expressed as continuous linear functionals of a conditional expectation function. This includes the average treatment effect under unconfoundedness and generalizations for continuous-valued and personalized…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-11-23 David A. Hirshberg , Stefan Wager

Aligning large language models (LLMs) to preference data typically assumes a known link function between observed preferences and latent rewards (e.g., a logistic Bradley-Terry link). Misspecification of this link can bias inferred rewards…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-03 Nathan Kallus

We consider the problem of partial identification, the estimation of bounds on the treatment effects from observational data. Although studied using discrete treatment variables or in specific causal graphs (e.g., instrumental variables),…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-10-18 Vahid Balazadeh , Vasilis Syrgkanis , Rahul G. Krishnan

This paper introduces a straightforward sieve-based approach for estimating and conducting inference on regression parameters in panel data models with interactive fixed effects. The method's key assumption is that factor loadings can be…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-02-26 Georg Keilbar , Juan M. Rodriguez-Poo , Alexandra Soberon , Weining Wang

We introduce a double/debiased machine learning estimator for the impulse response function in settings where a time series of interest is subjected to multiple discrete treatments, assigned over time, which can have a causal effect on…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-12-17 Daniele Ballinari , Alexander Wehrli

We investigate the problem of estimating the average treatment effect (ATE) under a very general setup where the covariates can be high-dimensional, highly correlated, and can have sparse nonlinear effects on the propensity and outcome…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-08-26 Jianqing Fan , Soham Jana , Sanjeev Kulkarni , Qishuo Yin

The network interference model for causal inference places all experimental units at the vertices of an undirected exposure graph, such that treatment assigned to one unit may affect the outcome of another unit if and only if these two…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-03-18 Shuangning Li , Stefan Wager

Quantifying treatment effect heterogeneity is a crucial task in many areas of causal inference, e.g. optimal treatment allocation and estimation of subgroup effects. We study the problem of estimating the level sets of the conditional…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-07-03 Matteo Bonvini , Edward H. Kennedy , Luke J. Keele

Estimating the Individual Treatment Effect from observational data, defined as the difference between outcomes with and without treatment or intervention, while observing just one of both, is a challenging problems in causal learning. In…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-05-07 Céline Beji , Michaël Bon , Florian Yger , Jamal Atif

Policy makers typically face the problem of wanting to estimate the long-term effects of novel treatments, while only having historical data of older treatment options. We assume access to a long-term dataset where only past treatments were…

Econometrics · Economics 2022-02-11 Keith Battocchi , Eleanor Dillon , Maggie Hei , Greg Lewis , Miruna Oprescu , Vasilis Syrgkanis

We consider estimation of average treatment effects given observational data with high-dimensional pretreatment variables. Existing methods for this problem typically assume some form of sparsity for the regression functions. In this work,…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-04-12 Yuhao Wang , Rajen D. Shah

Average partial effects (APEs) are often not point identified in panel models with unrestricted unobserved individual heterogeneity, such as a binary response panel model with fixed effects and logistic errors as a special case. This lack…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-08-01 Laura Liu , Alexandre Poirier , Ji-Liang Shiu
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