Related papers: A general framework to quantify the event importan…

The outcome of some football matches has benefited both teams at the expense of a third team because head-to-head results were used for breaking ties. Inspired by these examples, our mathematical analysis identifies all possible collusion…

Stochastic simulation has been widely used to analyze the performance of complex stochastic systems and facilitate decision making in those systems. Stochastic simulation is driven by the input model, which is a collection of probability…

Tournaments can be used to model a variety of practical scenarios including sports competitions and elections. A natural notion of strength of alternatives in a tournament is a generalized king: an alternative is said to be a $k$-king if it…

Time-to-event endpoints are central to evaluate treatment efficacy across many disease areas. Many trial protocols include interim analyses within group-sequential designs that control type I error via spending functions or boundary…

This paper aims to reduce randomness in football by analysing the role of lineups in final scores using machine learning prediction models we have developed. Football clubs invest millions of dollars on lineups and knowing how individual…

In this paper, a new continuous scoring system for soccer is proposed, based on the proportion of time that a team is winning, losing or tied. Several simulations are made applying this technique to complete seasons of different leagues. As…

A question is raised on whether some implied regularity or structure, as found in soccer team ranking by the Union of European Football Associations (UEFA), is due to implicit game result value or score competition conditions. The analysis…

We study how increasing competition, by making prizes more unequal, affects effort in contests. In a finite type-space environment, we characterize the equilibrium, analyze the effect of competition under linear costs, and identify…

This work demonstrates how the concept of the entropic potential of events -- a parameter quantifying the influence of discrete events on the expected future entropy of a system -- can enhance uncertainty quantification, decision-making,…

Multi-class classification problem is among the most popular and well-studied statistical frameworks. Modern multi-class datasets can be extremely ambiguous and single-output predictions fail to deliver satisfactory performance. By allowing…

The world of empirical machine learning (ML) strongly relies on benchmarks in order to determine the relative effectiveness of different algorithms and methods. This paper proposes the notion of "a benchmark lottery" that describes the…

Collaborative competitions have gained popularity in the scientific and technological fields. These competitions involve defining tasks, selecting evaluation scores, and devising result verification methods. In the standard scenario,…

The overwhelming amount and rate of information update in online social media is making it increasingly difficult for users to allocate their attention to their topics of interest, thus there is a strong need for prioritizing news feeds.…

Individuals are often faced with temptations that can lead them astray from long-term goals. We're interested in developing interventions that steer individuals toward making good initial decisions and then maintaining those decisions over…

Variable importance measures (VIMs) aim to quantify the contribution of each input covariate to the predictability of a given output. With the growing interest in explainable AI, numerous VIMs have been proposed, many of which are heuristic…

Context: Software engineering has a problem in that when we empirically evaluate competing prediction systems we obtain conflicting results. Objective: To reduce the inconsistency amongst validation study results and provide a more formal…

This document focuses on modeling a complex situations to achieve an advantage within a competitive context. Our goal is to devise the characteristics of games to teach and exercise non-easily quantifiable tasks crucial to the math-modeling…

Winners-take-all situations introduce an incentive for agents to diversify their behavior, since doing so will result in splitting an eventual price with fewer people. At the same time, when the payoff of a process depends on a parameter…

Algorithms are increasingly used to aid, or in some cases supplant, human decision-making, particularly for decisions that hinge on predictions. As a result, two additional features in addition to prediction quality have generated interest:…

Prediction polling is an increasingly popular form of crowdsourcing in which multiple participants estimate the probability or magnitude of some future event. These estimates are then aggregated into a single forecast. Historically,…