Related papers: Stochastic declustering of earthquakes with the sp…
This article proposes a spatiotemporal point process model that enhances the classical Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model by incorporating a renewal main-shock arrival process, which we term the renewal ETAS (RETAS) model. This…
The Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model is one of the most widely-used approaches to seismic forecasting. However most studies of ETAS use point estimates for the model parameters, which ignores the inherent uncertainty that…
Currently, one of the best performing and most popular earthquake forecasting models rely on the working hypothesis that: "locations of past background earthquakes reveal the probable location of future seismicity". As an alternative, we…
A prominent feature of earthquakes is their empirical laws including memory (clustering) in time and space. Several earthquake forecasting models, like the EpidemicType Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model, were developed based on earthquake…
Self-exciting Hawkes processes are used to model events which cluster in time and space, and have been widely studied in seismology under the name of the Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model. In the ETAS framework, the occurrence…
Performing Bayesian inference for the Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model of earthquakes typically requires MCMC sampling using the likelihood function or estimating the latent branching structure. These tasks have computational…
The scientific process of earthquake forecasting involves estimating the probability and intensity of earthquakes in a specific area within a certain timeframe, based on seismic activity laws and observational data. Epidemic-Type Aftershock…
The conditional intensity function of a point process is a useful tool for generating probability forecasts of earthquakes. The epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model is defined by a conditional intensity function, and the…
Earthquake nowcasting has been proposed as a means of tracking the change in large earthquake potential in a seismically active area. The method was developed using observable seismic data, in which probabilities of future large earthquakes…
Earthquakes are one of the most devastating natural disasters that plague society. A skilled, reliable earthquake forecasting remains the ultimate goal for seismologists. Using the detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) and conditional…
We propose two methods to calibrate the parameters of the epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model based on expectation maximization (EM) while accounting for temporal variation of catalog completeness. The first method allows for…
As part of an effort to develop a systematic methodology for earthquake forecasting, we use a simple model of seismicity based on interacting events which may trigger a cascade of earthquakes, known as the Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequence…
The ETAS model is widely employed to model the spatio-temporal distribution of earthquakes, generally using spatially invariant parameters. We propose an efficient method for the estimation of spatially varying parameters, using the…
The Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model is widely used to model seismic sequences and underpins Operational Earthquake Forecasting (OEF). However, it remains challenging to assess the reliability of inverted ETAS parameters for a…
Several recent works point out that the crowd of small unobservable earthquakes (with magnitudes below the detection threshold $m_d$) may play a significant and perhaps dominant role in triggering future seismicity. Using the ETAS branching…
The spatio-temporal Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model is widely used to describe the self-exciting nature of earthquake occurrences. While traditional inference methods provide only point estimates of the model parameters, we…
Earthquakes in seismological catalogs and acoustic emission events in lab experiments can be statistically described as a linear Hawkes point process, where the spatio-temporal rate of events is a linear superposition of background…
In statistical seismology, the Epidemic Type Aftershocks Sequence (ETAS) model is a branching process used world-wide to forecast earthquake intensity rates and reproduce many statistical features observed in seismicity catalogs. In this…
The Himalayan region, including Nepal, is prone to frequent and large earthquakes. Accurate forecasting of these earthquakes is crucial for minimizing loss of life and damage to infrastructure. In this study, we propose various time-scaled…
The Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequences (ETAS) model and its variants effectively capture the space-time clustering of seismicity, setting the standard for earthquake forecasting. Accurate unbiased ETAS calibration is thus crucial. But we…