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We develop a new bidirectional algorithm for estimating Markov chain multi-step transition probabilities: given a Markov chain, we want to estimate the probability of hitting a given target state in $\ell$ steps after starting from a given…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2015-11-05 Siddhartha Banerjee , Peter Lofgren

Aims To propose and analyze a general, dynamic, process-oriented theory of the area of distribution. Methods The area of distribution is modelled by combining (by multiplication) three matrices: one matrix represents movements, another…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2022-12-14 Jorge Soberón , Luis Osorio-Olvera

We study the properties of a subclass of stochastic processes called discrete time nonlinear Markov chains with an aggregator, which naturally appear in various topics such as strategic queueing systems, inventory dynamics, opinion…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-12-24 Bar Light

A new multivariate distribution possessing arbitrarily parametrized and positively dependent univariate Pareto margins is introduced. Unlike the probability law of Asimit et al. (2010) [Asimit, V., Furman, E. and Vernic, R. (2010) On a…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2016-07-19 Jianxi Su , Edward Furman

Circular variables arise in a multitude of data-modelling contexts ranging from robotics to the social sciences, but they have been largely overlooked by the machine learning community. This paper partially redresses this imbalance by…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-08-10 Alexandre K. W. Navarro , Jes Frellsen , Richard E. Turner

In the context of clinical and biomedical studies, joint frailty models have been developed to study the joint temporal evolution of recurrent and terminal events, capturing both the heterogeneous susceptibility to experiencing a new…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-11-08 Chiara Masci , Marta Spreafico , Francesca Ieva

This paper proposes a unified approach to enable the study of diverse distributions in the real, complex, quaternion and octonion cases, simultaneously. In particular, the central, nonsingular matricvariate and matrix multivariate Pearson…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2010-11-24 Jose A. Diaz-Garcia , Ramon Gutierrez-Jaimez

Finite mixtures of regressions with fixed covariates are a commonly used model-based clustering methodology to deal with regression data. However, they assume assignment independence, i.e. the allocation of data points to the clusters is…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-04-27 Salvatore D. Tomarchio , Paul D. McNicholas , Antonio Punzo

The stationary higher-order Markov process for circular data is considered. We employ the mixture transition distribution (MTD) model to express the transition density of the process on the circle. The underlying circular transition…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-11-12 Hiroaki Ogata , Takayuki Shiohama

Switching dynamical systems are an expressive model class for the analysis of time-series data. As in many fields within the natural and engineering sciences, the systems under study typically evolve continuously in time, it is natural to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-05-19 Lukas Köhs , Bastian Alt , Heinz Koeppl

We propose a general method for distributed Bayesian model choice, using the marginal likelihood, where a data set is split in non-overlapping subsets. These subsets are only accessed locally by individual workers and no data is shared…

Computation · Statistics 2022-10-18 Alexander Buchholz , Daniel Ahfock , Sylvia Richardson

We consider a class of piecewise-deterministic Markov processes where the state evolves according to a linear dynamical system. This continuous time evolution is interspersed by discrete events that occur at random times and change (reset)…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2017-11-15 Mohammad Soltani , Abhyudai Singh

The aim of this paper, is to define a bivariate exponentiated generalized linear exponential distribution based on Marshall-Olkin shock model. Statistical and reliability properties of this distribution are discussed. This includes…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-10-03 Mohamed Ibrahim , M. S. Eliwa , M. El- Morshedy

Compartment models with delay terms are widely used across a range of disciplines. The motivation to include delay terms varies across different contexts. In epidemiological and pharmacokinetic models, the delays are often used to represent…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2024-06-26 Christopher N. Angstmann , Anna V. McGann , Zhuang Xu

The ability to estimate joint, conditional and marginal probability distributions over some set of variables is of great utility for many common machine learning tasks. However, estimating these distributions can be challenging,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-09-20 Andrew Skabar

This paper proposes famillies of multimatricvariate and multimatrix variate distributions based on elliptically contoured laws in the context of real normed division algebras. The work allows to answer the following inference problems about…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-05-14 José A. Díaz-García , Francisco J. Caro-Lopera

We propose a general and scalable approximate sampling strategy for probabilistic models with discrete variables. Our approach uses gradients of the likelihood function with respect to its discrete inputs to propose updates in a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-06-08 Will Grathwohl , Kevin Swersky , Milad Hashemi , David Duvenaud , Chris J. Maddison

Continuous-time empirical dynamic discrete choice games offer notable computational advantages over discrete-time models. This paper addresses remaining computational and econometric challenges to further improve both model solution and…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-11-11 Jason R. Blevins

Clustered observations are ubiquitous in controlled and observational studies and arise naturally in multi-centre trials or longitudinal surveys. We present a novel model for the analysis of clustered observations where the marginal…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-11-03 Luisa Barbanti , Torsten Hothorn

In this paper, we propose a new class of bivariate distributions, called the bivariate discrete inverse Weibull (BDsIW) distribution, whose marginals are discrete inverse Weibull (DsIW) distributions. Some statistical and mathematical…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-08-24 M. S. Eliwa , M. El-Morshedy