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We consider robust shortest path problems, where the aim is to find a path that optimizes the worst-case performance over an uncertainty set containing all relevant scenarios for arc costs. The usual approach for such problems is to assume…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2018-02-13 André Chassein , Trivikram Dokka , Marc Goerigk

Many real-world systems are characterized by stochastic dynamical rules where a complex network of interactions among individual elements probabilistically determines their state. Even with full knowledge of the network structure and of the…

Physics and Society · Physics 2018-05-15 Filippo Radicchi , Claudio Castellano

This paper examines the accuracy of the PROSPECTOR model for uncertain reasoning. PROSPECTOR's solutions for a large number of computer-generated inference networks were compared to those obtained from probability theory and minimum…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-04-12 Robert M. Yadrick , Bruce M. Perrin , David S. Vaughan , Peter D. Holden , Karl G. Kempf

We propose a network architecture capable of reliably estimating uncertainty of regression based predictions without sacrificing accuracy. The current state-of-the-art uncertainty algorithms either fall short of achieving prediction…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-02-22 Kinjal Patel , Steven Waslander

We study a fundamental stochastic selection problem involving $n$ independent random variables, each of which can be queried at some cost. Given a tolerance level $\delta$, the goal is to find a value that is $\delta$-approximately minimum…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2025-04-25 Hessa Al-Thani , Viswanath Nagarajan

Structural learning, a method to estimate the parameters for discrete energy minimization, has been proven to be effective in solving computer vision problems, especially in 3D scene parsing. As the complexity of the models increases,…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2017-01-13 Mengtian Li , Daniel Huber

We propose a novel polyhedral uncertainty set for robust optimization, termed the smooth uncertainty set, which captures dependencies of uncertain parameters by constraining their pairwise differences. The bounds on these differences may be…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-10-13 Noam Goldberg , Michael Poss , Shimrit Shtern

Tree-based ensemble methods, as Random Forests and Gradient Boosted Trees, have been successfully used for regression in many applications and research studies. Furthermore, these methods have been extended in order to deal with uncertainty…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-11-20 Myriam Tami , Marianne Clausel , Emilie Devijver , Adrien Dulac , Eric Gaussier , Stefan Janaqi , Meriam Chebre

Span programs are a model of computation that have been used to design quantum algorithms, mainly in the query model. For any decision problem, there exists a span program that leads to an algorithm with optimal quantum query complexity,…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2015-07-03 Tsuyoshi Ito , Stacey Jeffery

We present a scheme to obtain an inexpensive and reliable estimate of the uncertainty associated with the predictions of a machine-learning model of atomic and molecular properties. The scheme is based on resampling, with multiple models…

Chemical Physics · Physics 2025-10-06 Felix Musil , Michael J. Willatt , Mikhail A. Langovoy , Michele Ceriotti

We consider the problem of hypothesis testing for discrete distributions. In the standard model, where we have sample access to an underlying distribution $p$, extensive research has established optimal bounds for uniformity testing,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-03 Maryam Aliakbarpour , Piotr Indyk , Ronitt Rubinfeld , Sandeep Silwal

Research in reinforcement learning has produced algorithms for optimal decision making under uncertainty that fall within two main types. The first employs a Bayesian framework, where optimality improves with increased computational time.…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2011-09-22 Christos Dimitrakakis

Uncertainty estimation aims to evaluate the confidence of a trained deep neural network. However, existing uncertainty estimation approaches rely on low-dimensional distributional assumptions and thus suffer from the high dimensionality of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-26 Tsai Hor Chan , Kin Wai Lau , Jiajun Shen , Guosheng Yin , Lequan Yu

For many practical, high-risk applications, it is essential to quantify uncertainty in a model's predictions to avoid costly mistakes. While predictive uncertainty is widely studied for neural networks, the topic seems to be under-explored…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-04-05 Andrey Malinin , Liudmila Prokhorenkova , Aleksei Ustimenko

We consider the problem of minimizing the number of matrix-vector queries needed for accurate trace estimation in the dynamic setting where our underlying matrix is changing slowly, such as during an optimization process. Specifically, for…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2022-10-03 David P. Woodruff , Fred Zhang , Qiuyi Zhang

We present a provably safe sampling-based motion planning algorithm for robotic systems affected by random disturbances of unknown distribution. We consider systems with linear or linearizable dynamics evolving in workspace with…

Robotics · Computer Science 2026-05-27 Ibon Gracia , Qi Heng Ho , Luca Laurenti , Morteza Lahijanian

We investigate a data-driven approach to constructing uncertainty sets for robust optimization problems, where the uncertain problem parameters are modeled as random variables whose joint probability distribution is not known. Relying only…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2020-09-22 Polina Alexeenko , Eilyan Bitar

We show optimal lower bounds for spanning forest computation in two different models: * One wants a data structure for fully dynamic spanning forest in which updates can insert or delete edges amongst a base set of $n$ vertices. The sole…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2019-11-27 Jelani Nelson , Huacheng Yu

We develop and analyze methods for computing provably optimal {\em maximum a posteriori} (MAP) configurations for a subclass of Markov random fields defined on graphs with cycles. By decomposing the original distribution into a convex…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2007-07-13 Martin J. Wainwright , Tommi S. Jaakkola , Alan S. Willsky

Latent space models have been widely adopted in modeling network data. Developing statistical inference for estimated model parameters enables quantifying associated uncertainty and is pivotal for downstream tasks. Despite recent progress…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-05-12 Yuang Tian , Jiajin Sun , Yinqiu He