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We study the problem of optimally managing an inventory with unknown demand trend. Our formulation leads to a stochastic control problem under partial observation, in which a Brownian motion with non-observable drift can be singularly…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2022-11-28 Salvatore Federico , Giorgio Ferrari , Neofytos Rodosthenous

We obtain a lower asymptotic bound on the decay rate of the probability of a portfolio's underperformance against a benchmark over a large time horizon. It is assumed that the prices of the securities are governed by geometric Brownian…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-05-04 Anatolii A. Puhalskii , Michael Jay Stutzer

This paper studies the approximation of optimal control policies by quantized (discretized) policies for a very general class of Markov decision processes (MDPs). The problem is motivated by applications in networked control systems,…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2015-05-14 Naci Saldi , Serdar Yüksel , Tamás Linder

We initiate a study of the following problem: Given a continuous domain $\Omega$ along with its convex hull $\mathcal{K}$, a point $A \in \mathcal{K}$ and a prior measure $\mu$ on $\Omega$, find the probability density over $\Omega$ whose…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2020-04-17 Jonathan Leake , Nisheeth K. Vishnoi

This paper studies an optimal investment-reinsurance problem for an insurer (she) under the Cram\'er--Lundberg model with monotone mean--variance (MMV) criterion. At any time, the insurer can purchase reinsurance (or acquire new business)…

Portfolio Management · Quantitative Finance 2024-05-30 Xiaomin Shi , Zuo Quan Xu

We study a class of dynamically consistent risk measures that robustify a time-homogeneous Markovian reference model by allowing for distributional uncertainty in its transition laws. We start from one-step convex risk evaluations in which…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2026-05-22 Sven Fuhrmann , Michael Kupper , Max Nendel

In this paper we propose a dimension-reduction strategy in order to improve the performance of importance sampling in high dimension. The idea is to estimate variance terms in a small number of suitably chosen directions. We first prove…

Computation · Statistics 2022-03-24 Maxime ElMasri , Jérôme Morio , Florian Simatos

Consider a d-dimensional Brownian motion in a random potential defined by attaching a nonnegative and polynomially decaying potential around Poisson points. We introduce a repulsive interaction between the Brownian path and the Poisson…

Probability · Mathematics 2013-10-04 Ryoki Fukushima

In this paper we investigate a kind of optimal control problem of coupled forward-backward stochastic system with jumps whose cost functional is defined through a coupled forward-backward stochastic differential equation with Brownian…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-09-15 Qian Lin

We quantify the performance of approximations to stochastic filtering by the Kullback-Leibler divergence to the optimal Bayesian filter. Using a two-state Markov process that drives a Brownian measurement process as prototypical test case,…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2022-10-26 Rahul O. Ramakrishnan , Andrea Auconi , Benjamin M. Friedrich

We consider stochastic differential systems driven by a Brownian motion and a Poisson point measure where the intensity measure of jumps depends on the solution. This behavior is natural for several physical models (such as Boltzmann…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-09-25 Vlad Bally , Dan Goreac , Victor Rabiet

We consider the best-choice problem for independent (not necessarily iid) observations $X_1, \cdots, X_n$ with the aim of selecting the sample minimum. We show that in this full generality the monotone case of optimal stopping holds and the…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-10-13 Alexander Gnedin , Patryk Kozieł , Małgorzata Sulkowska

This paper considers the problem of partially observed optimal control for forward stochastic systems which are driven by Brownian motions and an independent Poisson random measure with a feature that the cost functional is of mean-field…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-03-19 Yaozhong Hu , David Nualart , Qing Zhou

This paper is dedicated to the investigation of a new numerical method to approximate the optimal stopping problem for a discrete-time continuous state space Markov chain under partial observations. It is based on a two-step discretization…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2016-02-16 Benoîte de Saporta , François Dufour , Christophe Nivot

We consider an economic agent (a household or an insurance company) modelling its surplus process by a deterministic process or by a Brownian motion with drift. The goal is to maximise the expected discounted spendings/dividend payments,…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2018-09-03 Julia Eisenberg , Yuliya Mishura

We present a new lower bound on the differential entropy rate of stationary processes whose sequences of probability density functions fulfill certain regularity conditions. This bound is obtained by showing that the gap between the…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2017-08-30 Meik Dörpinghaus

In this paper, a partially observed stochastic linear Stackelberg differential game with mean-variance criteria is studied. Randomness comes from Brownian motions and Poisson random measures. which leads to a circular dependency. We follow…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2026-01-27 Jingtao Lin , Jingtao Shi

Motivated by an approximation problem from mathematical finance, we analyse the stability of the boundary crossing probability for the multivariate Brownian motion process, with respect to small changes of the boundary. Under broad…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-03-11 S. McKinlay , K. Borovkov

We consider the impulse control of Levy processes under the infinite horizon, discounted cost criterion. Our motivating example is the cash management problem in which a controller is charged a fixed plus proportional cost for adding to or…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-06-10 Peter Lakner , Josh Reed

We study the persistence probability for processes with stationary increments. Our results apply to a number of examples: sums of stationary correlated random variables whose scaling limit is fractional Brownian motion, random walks in…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-05-01 Frank Aurzada , Nadine Guillotin-Plantard , Françoise Pène