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By the end of 2021, the renewable energy share of the global electricity capacity reached 38.3% and the new installations are dominated by wind and solar energy, showing global increases of 12.7% and 18.5%, respectively. However, both wind…
We present the CIENS dataset, which contains ensemble weather forecasts from the operational convection-permitting numerical weather prediction model of the German Weather Service. It comprises forecasts for 55 meteorological variables…
Weather extremes produce major impacts on society and ecosystems and are likely to change in likelihood and magnitude with climate change. However, very low probability events are hard to characterize statistically using observations or…
Statistical post-processing techniques are now widely used to correct systematic biases and errors in calibration of ensemble forecasts obtained from multiple runs of numerical weather prediction models. A standard approach is the ensemble…
The evolution of the weather can be described by deterministic numerical weather forecasting models. Multiple runs of these models with different initial conditions and/or model physics result in forecast ensembles which are used for…
In order to enable the transition towards renewable energy sources, probabilistic energy forecasting is of critical importance for incorporating volatile power sources such as solar energy into the electrical grid. Solar energy forecasting…
Post-processing typically takes the outputs of a Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) model and applies linear statistical techniques to produce improve localized forecasts, by including additional observations, or determining systematic…
An ensemble post-processing method is developed to improve the probabilistic forecasts of extreme precipitation events across the conterminous United States (CONUS). The method combines a 3-D Vision Transformer (ViT) for bias correction…
Uncertainty quantification is crucial to decision-making. A prominent example is probabilistic forecasting in numerical weather prediction. The dominant approach to representing uncertainty in weather forecasting is to generate an ensemble…
We present an operations-ready multi-model ensemble weather forecasting system which uses hybrid data-driven weather prediction models coupled with the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ocean model to predict global…
Accurate prediction of extreme weather events remains a major challenge for artificial intelligence-based weather prediction systems. While deterministic models such as FuXi, GraphCast, and SFNO have achieved competitive forecast skill…
Ensemble prediction systems are an invaluable tool for weather forecasting. Practically, ensemble predictions are obtained by running several perturbations of the deterministic control forecast. However, ensemble prediction is associated…
Skillful streamflow forecasts can inform decisions in various areas of water policy and management. We integrate numerical weather prediction ensembles, distributed hydrological model and machine learning to generate ensemble streamflow…
Studying low-likelihood high-impact extreme weather events in a warming world is a significant and challenging task for current ensemble forecasting systems. While these systems presently use up to 100 members, larger ensembles could enrich…
A bivariate ensemble model output statistics (EMOS) technique for the postprocessing of ensemble forecasts of two-dimensional wind vectors is proposed, where the postprocessed probabilistic forecast takes the form of a bivariate normal…
Ensemble forecast post-processing is a necessary step in producing accurate probabilistic forecasts. Conventional post-processing methods operate by estimating the parameters of a parametric distribution, frequently on a per-location or…
Earth System Models (ESMs) are essential tools for understanding the impact of human actions on Earth's climate. One key application of these models is studying extreme weather events, such as heat waves or dry spells, which have…
Weather forecasts are fundamentally uncertain, so predicting the range of probable weather scenarios is crucial for important decisions, from warning the public about hazardous weather, to planning renewable energy use. Here, we introduce…
Precipitation forecasts are less accurate compared to other meteorological fields because several key processes affecting precipitation distribution and intensity occur below the resolved scale of global weather prediction models. This…
Ensemble forecasting has proven over the years to be a vital tool for predicting extreme or only partially predictable weather events. In particular life-threatening weather events. Many National Meteorological Services in East Africa do…