Related papers: Approximation of bayesian Hawkes process models wi…

Classic estimation methods for Hawkes processes rely on the assumption that observed event times are indeed a realisation of a Hawkes process, without considering any potential perturbation of the model. However, in practice, observations…

In this work we consider Bayesian inference problems with intractable likelihood functions. We present a method to compute an approximate of the posterior with a limited number of model simulations. The method features an inverse Gaussian…

Because of their tractability and their natural interpretations in term of market quantities, Hawkes processes are nowadays widely used in high-frequency finance. However, in practice, the statistical estimation results seem to show that…

We develop a quasi-likelihood analysis procedure for a general class of multivariate marked point processes. As a by-product of the general method, we establish under stability and ergodicity conditions the local asymptotic normality of the…

Temporal point processes (TPP) are a natural tool for modeling event-based data. Among all TPP models, Hawkes processes have proven to be the most widely used, mainly due to their adequate modeling for various applications, particularly…

Detecting rare events, those defined to give rise to high impact but have a low probability of occurring, is a challenge in a number of domains including meteorological, environmental, financial and economic. The use of machine learning to…

We study Bayesian methods for large-scale linear inverse problems, focusing on the challenging task of hyperparameter estimation. Typical hierarchical Bayesian formulations that follow a Markov Chain Monte Carlo approach are possible for…

We propose a novel framework for modeling multiple multivariate point processes, each with heterogeneous event types that share an underlying space and obey the same generative mechanism. Focusing on Hawkes processes and their variants that…

This paper proposes a new meta-learning method -- named HARMLESS (HAwkes Relational Meta LEarning method for Short Sequences) for learning heterogeneous point process models from short event sequence data along with a relational network.…

Predicting discrete events in time and space has many scientific applications, such as predicting hazardous earthquakes and outbreaks of infectious diseases. History-dependent spatio-temporal Hawkes processes are often used to…

The analysis of case-control point pattern data is an important problem in spatial epidemiology. The spatial variation of cases if often compared to that of a set of controls to assess spatial risk variation as well as the detection of risk…

Numerous studies grounded on Hawkes processes have been carried out in many fields including finance, biology and social network. Hawkes processes form a class of selfexciting simple point processes. In this article, we consider a general…

Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) methods are used to approximate posterior distributions using simulation rather than likelihood calculations. We introduce Gaussian process (GP) accelerated ABC, which we show can significantly reduce…

Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) has become increasingly prominent as a method for conducting parameter inference in a range of challenging statistical problems, most notably those characterized by an intractable likelihood function.…

Complex models used to describe biological processes in epidemiology and ecology often have computationally intractable or expensive likelihoods. This poses significant challenges in terms of Bayesian inference but more significantly in the…

The use of Gaussian processes (GPs) is supported by efficient sampling algorithms, a rich methodological literature, and strong theoretical grounding. However, due to their prohibitive computation and storage demands, the use of exact GPs…

The Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation (INLA) is a convenient way to obtain approximations to the posterior marginals for parameters in Bayesian hierarchical models when the latent effects can be expressed as a Gaussian Markov Random…

The Bayesian lasso is well-known as a Bayesian alternative for Lasso. Although the advantage of the Bayesian lasso is capable of full probabilistic uncertain quantification for parameters, the corresponding posterior distribution can be…

The Tick library allows researchers in market microstructure to simulate and learn Hawkes process in high-frequency data, with optimized parametric and non-parametric learners. But one challenge is to take into account the correct causality…

We study Bayesian inference methods for solving linear inverse problems, focusing on hierarchical formulations where the prior or the likelihood function depend on unspecified hyperparameters. In practice, these hyperparameters are often…