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This study introduces an advanced machine learning method for predicting soccer players' market values, combining ensemble models and the Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP) for interpretability. Utilizing data from about 12,000 players…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-11-27 Chunyang Huang , Shaoliang Zhang

Huge amounts of money are invested every year by football clubs on transfers. For both growth and survival, it is crucial for recruiting departments to make smart choices when targeting players. Therefore, it is very important to identify…

We developed an artificial intelligence approach to predict the transfer fee of a football player. This model can help clubs make better decisions about which players to buy and sell, which can lead to improved performance and increased…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-01-31 Daniil Sulimov

The football transfer market is a complex, dynamic environment in which clubs compete to acquire players who strengthen their squads. While several frameworks estimate a player's worth, a comprehensive approach that captures both squad…

Applications · Statistics 2026-05-15 Tathagata Basu , Soudeep Deb , Rishideep Roy

Transfers in professional football (soccer) are risky investments because of the large transfer fees and high risks involved. Although data-driven models can be used to improve transfer decisions, existing models focus on describing…

Applications · Statistics 2025-09-29 Koen W. van Arem , Floris Goes-Smit , Jakob Söhl

One of the most important and challenging problems in football is predicting future player performance when transferred to another club within and between different leagues. In addition to being the most valuable prediction a team makes, it…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-01-28 Daniel Dinsdale , Joe Gallagher

In most sports, especially football, most coaches and analysts search for key performance indicators using notational analysis. This method utilizes a statistical summary of events based on video footage and numerical records of goal…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-07-26 Chenyao Li , Stylianos Kampakis , Philip Treleaven

Composing a team of professional players is among the most crucial decisions in association football. Nevertheless, transfer market decisions are often based on myopic objectives and are questionable from a financial point of view. This…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2020-10-06 Giovanni Pantuso , Lars Magnus Hvattum

Even skilled fantasy football managers can be disappointed by their mid-season rosters as some players inevitably fall short of draft day expectations. Team managers can quickly discover that their team has a low score ceiling even if they…

We designed a multilayer perceptron neural network to predict the price of a football (soccer) player using data on more than 15,000 players from the football simulation video game FIFA 2017. The network was optimized by experimenting with…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2017-11-21 Sourya Dey

This paper presents a new framework for player valuation in European football, by fusing principles from financial mathematics and network theory. The valuation model leverages a "passing matrix" to encapsulate player interactions on the…

Physics and Society · Physics 2024-10-11 Albert Cohen , Jimmy Risk

This paper aims to reduce randomness in football by analysing the role of lineups in final scores using machine learning prediction models we have developed. Football clubs invest millions of dollars on lineups and knowing how individual…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-01-18 George Peters , Diogo Pacheco

This paper presents a groundbreaking model for forecasting English Premier League (EPL) player performance using convolutional neural networks (CNNs). We evaluate Ridge regression, LightGBM and CNNs on the task of predicting upcoming player…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-05-07 Daniel Frees , Pranav Ravella , Charlie Zhang

In this research, we examine the capabilities of different mathematical models to accurately predict various levels of the English football pyramid. Existing work has largely focused on top-level play in European leagues; however, our work…

The success of a football team depends on various individual skills and performances of the selected players as well as how cohesively they perform. We propose a two-stage process for selecting optimal playing eleven of a football team from…

Applications · Statistics 2023-04-14 Soudeep Deb , Shubhabrata Das

In this paper, market values of the football players in the forward positions are estimated using multiple linear regression by including the physical and performance factors in 2017-2018 season. Players from 4 major leagues of Europe are…

Applications · Statistics 2018-07-04 Yunus Kologlu , Hasan Birinci , Sevde Ilgaz Kanalmaz , Burhan Ozyilmaz

Soccer is undeniably the most popular sport world-wide and everyone from general managers and coaching staff to fans and media are interested in evaluating players' performance. Metrics applied successfully in other sports, such as the…

Applications · Statistics 2020-12-04 Konstantinos Pelechrinis , Wayne Winston

In basketball and hockey, state-of-the-art player value statistics are often variants of Adjusted Plus-Minus (APM). But APM hasn't had the same impact in soccer, since soccer games are low scoring with a low number of substitutions. In…

Applications · Statistics 2018-10-19 Francesca Matano , Lee F. Richardson , Taylor Pospisil , Collin Eubanks , Jining Qin

In sports analytics, player tracking data have driven significant advancements in the task of player evaluation. We present a novel generative framework for evaluating the observed frame-by-frame player positioning against a distribution of…

Applications · Statistics 2026-03-24 Quang Nguyen , Ronald Yurko

Fluctuations in the stock market rapidly shape the economic world and consumer markets, impacting millions of individuals. Hence, accurately forecasting it is essential for mitigating risks, including those associated with inactivity.…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2025-01-15 Konstantinos-Leonidas Bisdoulis
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