Related papers: Is your model predicting the past?

The increasing use of deep learning across various domains highlights the importance of understanding the decision-making processes of these black-box models. Recent research focusing on the decision boundaries of deep classifiers, relies…

While action anticipation has garnered a lot of research interest recently, most of the works focus on anticipating future action directly through observed visual cues only. In this work, we take a step back to analyze how the human…

Machine and Statistical learning techniques become more and more important for the analysis of psychological data. Four core concepts of machine learning are the bias variance trade-off, cross-validation, regularization, and basis…

Machine learning techniques are effective for building predictive models because they identify patterns in large datasets. Development of a model for complex real-life problems often stop at the point of publication, proof of concept or…

Machine learning models are usually evaluated according to the average case performance on the test set. However, this is not always ideal, because in some sensitive domains (e.g. autonomous driving), it is the worst case performance that…

Privacy and transparency are two key foundations of trustworthy machine learning. Model explanations offer insights into a model's decisions on input data, whereas privacy is primarily concerned with protecting information about the…

Modern predictive analytics underpinned by machine learning techniques has become a key enabler to the automation of data-driven decision making. In the context of business process management, predictive analytics has been applied to making…

Advances in machine learning and the increasing availability of high-dimensional data have led to the proliferation of social science research that uses the predictions of machine learning models as proxies for measures of human activity or…

Tabular foundation models with different architectures converge in accuracy across a range of classification and regression tasks. This raises questions a leaderboard cannot answer: (i) whether the models execute the same in-context…

The supermarket model refers to a system with a large number of queues, where new customers choose d queues at random and join the one with the fewest customers. This model demonstrates the power of even small amounts of choice, as compared…

We introduce a framework for calibrating machine learning models so that their predictions satisfy explicit, finite-sample statistical guarantees. Our calibration algorithms work with any underlying model and (unknown) data-generating…

We demonstrate that machine learning enables the capability to infer an individual's propensity to vote from their past actions and attributes. This is useful for microtargeting voter outreach, voter education and get-out-the-vote (GOVT)…

The use of patterns in predictive models is a topic that has received a lot of attention in recent years. Pattern mining can help to obtain models for structured domains, such as graphs and sequences, and has been proposed as a means to…

We give an explicit algorithm and source code for constructing risk models based on machine learning techniques. The resultant covariance matrices are not factor models. Based on empirical backtests, we compare the performance of these…

In automated driving, predicting trajectories of surrounding vehicles supports reasoning about scene dynamics and enables safe planning for the ego vehicle. However, existing models handle predictions as an instantaneous task of forecasting…

Since its inception, the choice modelling field has been dominated by theory-driven modelling approaches. Machine learning offers an alternative data-driven approach for modelling choice behaviour and is increasingly drawing interest in our…

Large-scale behavioral datasets enable researchers to use complex machine learning algorithms to better predict human behavior, yet this increased predictive power does not always lead to a better understanding of the behavior in question.…

Predictive uncertainty estimation of pre-trained language models is an important measure of how likely people can trust their predictions. However, little is known about what makes a model prediction uncertain. Explaining predictive…

The impact of machine learning models on healthcare will depend on the degree of trust that healthcare professionals place in the predictions made by these models. In this paper, we present a method to provide people with clinical expertise…

Double machine learning is a statistical method for leveraging complex black-box models to construct approximately unbiased treatment effect estimates given observational data with high-dimensional covariates, under the assumption of a…