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Intelligent systems are increasingly integral to our daily lives, yet rare safety-critical events present significant latent threats to their practical deployment. Addressing this challenge hinges on accurately predicting the probability of…
Based on classical contagion models we introduce an artificial cyber lab: the digital twin of a complex cyber system in which possible cyber resilience measures may be implemented and tested. Using the lab, in numerical case studies, we…
Governments around the world are required to strengthen their national cybersecurity capabilities to respond effectively to the growing, changing, and sophisticated cyber threats and attacks, thus protecting society and the way of life as a…
According to different typologies of activity and priority, risks can assume diverse meanings and it can be assessed in different ways. In general risk is measured in terms of a probability combination of an event (frequency) and its…
Uncertainty requires suitable techniques for risk assessment. Combining stochastic approximation and stochastic average approximation, we propose an efficient algorithm to compute the worst case average value at risk in the face of tail…
When investing in cyber security resources, information security managers have to follow effective decision-making strategies. We refer to this as the cyber security investment challenge. In this paper, we consider three possible…
We introduce a novel method for the rigorous quantitative evaluation of online algorithms that relaxes the "radical worst-case" perspective of classic competitive analysis. In contrast to prior work, our method, referred to as randomly…
Success of any IT industry depends on the success rate of their projects, which in turn depends on several factors such as cost, time, and availability of resources. These factors formulate the risk areas, which needs to be addressed in a…
This study evaluates the application of predictive analytics for real-time cyber-attack detection and response, focusing on how statistical and machine learning methods can improve decision-making in Security Operations Centers (SOCs).…
Risk assessment plays a crucial role in ensuring the security and resilience of modern computer systems. Existing methods for conducting risk assessments often suffer from tedious and time-consuming processes, making it challenging to…
In the wake of the arrival of digital media, the Internet, the web, and online social media, a flood of new cyber security research questions have emerged. There is a lot of money being lost around the world because of cyber-attacks. As a…
This paper presents the Cybersecurity Psychology Framework (CPF), a novel methodology for quantifying human-centric vulnerabilities in security operations through systematic integration of established psychological constructs with…
Modeling and simulation are widely used in cybersecurity research to assess cyber threats, evaluate defense mechanisms, and analyze vulnerabilities. However, the diversity of application areas, the variety of cyberattacks scenarios, and the…
Cyber data attacks are the worst-case interacting bad data to power system state estimation and cannot be detected by existing bad data detectors. In this paper, we for the first time analyze the likelihood of cyber data attacks by…
Proper implementation of technical and administrative controls reinforces an organization's cybersecurity posture and business resilience, reduces risks, and enhances governance, ultimately elevating business maturity. The dynamics of the…
Estimating the probability of failures or accidents with aerospace systems is often necessary when new concepts or designs are introduced, as it is being done for Autonomous Aircraft. If the design is safe, as it is supposed to be, accident…
Not a day goes by without news about a cyber attack. Fear spreads out and lots of wrong ideas circulate. This survey aims at showing how all these uncertainties about cyber can be transformed into manageable risk. After reviewing the main…
Cyber insurance is a complementary mechanism to further reduce the financial impact on the systems after their effort in defending against cyber attacks and implementing resilience mechanism to maintain the system-level operator even though…
While attack graphs are useful for identifying major cybersecurity threats affecting a system, they do not provide operational support for determining the likelihood of having a known vulnerability exploited, or that critical system nodes…
The task of designing secure software systems is fraught with uncertainty, as data on uncommon attacks is limited, costs are difficult to estimate, and technology and tools are continually changing. Consequently, experts may interpret the…