Related papers: Efficiency Requires Adaptation
Science consists on conceiving hypotheses, confronting them with empirical evidence, and keeping only hypotheses which have not yet been falsified. Under deductive reasoning they are conceived in view of a theory and confronted with…
Una de las presuposiciones de la ciencia desde los tiempos de Galileo, Newton y Laplace ha sido la previsibilidad del mundo. Esta idea ha influido en los modelos cientificos y tecnologicos. Sin embargo, en las ultimas decadas, el caos y la…
Likelihood methods for measuring statistical evidence obey the likelihood principle while maintaining bounded and well-controlled frequency properties. These methods lend themselves to sequential study designs because they measure the…
We provide a novel characterization of semiparametric efficiency in a generic supervised learning setting where the outcome mean function -- defined as the conditional expectation of the outcome of interest given the other observed…
Two useful strategies to speed up drug development are to increase the patient accrual rate and use novel adaptive designs. Unfortunately, these two strategies often conflict when the evaluation of the outcome cannot keep pace with the…
Incorporating historical information into the design and analysis of a new clinical trial has been the subject of much recent discussion. For example, in the context of clinical trials of antibiotics for drug resistant infections, where…
History-dependent constitutive models serve as macroscopic closures for the aggregated effects of micromechanics. Their parameters are typically learned from experimental data. With a limited experimental budget, eliciting the full range of…
We consider the following comparative effectiveness scenario. There are two treatments for a particular medical condition: a randomized experiment has demonstrated mediocre effectiveness for the first treatment, while a non-randomized study…
When predictions support decisions they may influence the outcome they aim to predict. We call such predictions performative; the prediction influences the target. Performativity is a well-studied phenomenon in policy-making that has so far…
Bayesian optimal experimental design (BOED) is a principled framework for making efficient use of limited experimental resources. Unfortunately, its applicability is hampered by the difficulty of obtaining accurate estimates of the expected…
The HCI community commonly evaluates decision support systems based on whether they improve task performance or promote appropriate user reliance. In this work, we look beyond decision outcomes to examine the process through which users…
Prescriptive process monitoring methods seek to improve the performance of a process by selectively triggering interventions at runtime (e.g., offering a discount to a customer) to increase the probability of a desired case outcome (e.g., a…
One way to investigate the precision of estimates likely to result from planned experiments and planned epidemiological studies is to simulate a large number of possible outcomes and analyse the sets of possible results. This appears to be…
Recent works began to automate the design of agentic systems using meta-agents that propose and iteratively refine new agent architectures. In this paper, we examine three key challenges in a common class of meta-agents. First, we…
The design of an experiment can be always be considered at least implicitly Bayesian, with prior knowledge used informally to aid decisions such as the variables to be studied and the choice of a plausible relationship between the…
Bayesian experimental design (BED) is a principled framework for data-efficient design of sequential experiments. However, existing BED methods are unable to adapt to dynamic constraints inherent in real-world tasks due to budget…
Bayesian persuasion and its derived information design problem has been one of the main research agendas in the economics and computation literature over the past decade. However, when attempting to apply its model and theory, one is often…
Color naming in natural languages is not arbitrary: it reflects efficient partitions of perceptual color space modulated by the relative needs to communicate about different colors. These psychophysical and communicative constraints help…
Understanding functional response within a predator-prey dynamic is a cornerstone for many quantitative ecological studies. Over the past 60 years, the methodology for modelling functional response has gradually transitioned from the…
Evaluation of potential AGI systems and methods is difficult due to the breadth of the engineering goal. We have no methods for perfect evaluation of the end state, and instead measure performance on small tests designed to provide…